COMMENTRIES

6 July 2025 , NIICE Commentary 11422 Kaveri Jain The global demand for critical minerals has surged in tandem with the rapid expansion of industries such as digital technology, clean energy, defense, aerospace and electric vehicles (EVs). Critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, graphite, copper, nickel and Rare Earth Elements (REEs - a group of 17 metallic elements), are essential for modern technologies from wind turbines and consumer electronics to semiconductors and guided missiles. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China is the dominant player in the processing and refining of almost all critical minerals, presently holding 45% of the global refining market share, which is expected to grow to 50% in the coming years. This includes around 35% of global nickel refining, 50–70% for lithium and cobalt and as much as 90% of rare earth element processing, particularly for conversion into oxides, metals and magnets. This single-state dominance over the refining capacity raises pertinent concerns regarding potential disruptions in supply chains, economic coercion, manipulation of prices, geopolitical risks and the need for diversification of both sourcing and processing.  Quad’s Collective Response In response to these urgent concerns, the Quad countries (India, Japan, Australia, and the United States) have revealed a significant move in challenging China’s control over minerals. On July 1, 2025, at the Foreign Ministers Meeting in Washington, the four nations announced the launch of the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative. This initiative shows a clear commitment to jointly secure a resilient and diversified critical mineral network across the Indo-Pacific region. In their joint statement, the Quad ministers said that they were "deeply concerned" about economic coercion and strategic vulnerabilities that are caused by too much reliance on one country for critical resources.  The initiative stresses joining forces with the private sector for investment promotion and the establishment of cross-border infrastructure for supply chains. This step also sets out to develop several necessary components such as high-tech refining, sustainable mining and recycling technology, which can draw minerals from the e-waste and used electronic devices. The transition from talk to action was emphasized on multiple occasions by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who urged the Quad to become a "vehicle for action" on the issue of critical minerals supply. Rubio has been advocating for a robust industrial strategy and lauded the participation of between 30 and 40 companies in a critical minerals-related Quad industrial consultation exercise. Besides, he noted that public-private cooperation is pivotal for long-term durability.  How is Each Quad Country Contributing? India has taken concrete actions to lessen its reliance on foreign mineral supplies and also hold a stronger position in the Quad’s critical minerals framework. India's public venture, Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL), signed an agreement with Argentina for lithium mining in January 2024, marking a strategic step to sourcing of necessary resources abroad. The government of India launched the National Critical Minerals Mission in early 2025, a program that focuses on 30 main minerals which are indispensable for the clean energy sector, the defense industry and the development of advanced technologies. The mission not only allows access to funds for purchases abroad but also for domestic exploration and expansion of processing infrastructure. It also tasks the Geological Survey of India with conducting 1,200 exploration projects from 2024-31. India is also looking at undersea reserves. The government gave a green light to the exploration of deep-sea blocks designated under the Deep Ocean Mission. These steps indicate that India is not only a strategic market but also an active contributor to the Indo-Pacific's changing mineral ecosystem. Australia, a pillar of the global supply of lithium, rare earths and other minerals, is strengthening its mining infrastructure and policy frameworks as well as its response to the global market that has become more demanding. Premier David Crisafulli has been very vocal in urging the federal government to back him up in the matter of lowering the tariff to boost the export of minerals, while also offering the state of Queensland as a potential host for a future Quad summit, thus emphasizing the state’s strategic importance. Queensland has also improved its critical minerals agenda through state-led strategies. As part of Queensland Critical Mineral Strategy, the Australian government has initiated several projects that are supported by multimillion-dollar funds to facilitate infrastructure construction, simplify the process of getting approvals and create ‘Critical Minerals Zones’ aimed at speeding the extraction and processing of minerals. These measures enhance Queensland's position as a key part of the Quad’s critical minerals initiative. Japan, a technological power with limited mineral reserves, is focused on domestic recycling and urban mining as its strategy to lower dependence on imports. The country is also implementing measures such as increasing the scaling up of technologies that recover rare earth elements from e-waste and resuming some of the suspended mining activities within its territory. On 4 July 2025, Japan announced that it will undertake the world's first deep-sea mineral extraction experiment in January by using the research vessel ‘Chikyu’ to collect rare earth-rich mud from the ocean floor at a depth of 5,500 meters near Minami Torishima. The test is intended to assess the mining equipment's ability rather than the extent of extraction; however, it demonstrates Japan's intent to explore seabed resources in the face of China's lead in the rare earth refining industry. The announcement reflects Tokyo's commitment to secure and diversify critical mineral supply chains along with other Quad partners.   The United States has identified critical minerals as a national security and economic necessity. Financial resources amounting to billions were earmarked by Washington via the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for the creation of domestic supply chains, domestic mining, processing and recycling capacities for such minerals as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. The U.S. also spearheads the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), which is comprised of multiple Quad, EU and Indo-Pacific partners. The overlap here may allow for the harmonization of sustainable sourcing standards, environmental safeguards and investment screening to organize the global supply chain. At the July 2025 Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting, the U.S. reiterated its promise to facilitate transparent, secure and sustainable mineral networks, thus giving a strong signal to its allies that they are all on the same page regarding the issue of diversifying from the dominant players like China. Washington has broadened the provision of executive orders and provided tax credits to make investments more appealing in processing infrastructure and cleaner mining technologies. The move signals a growing bipartisan recognition that industrial policy and security have become intertwined. The private sector is already addressing the Quad’s new direction. Australia-based clean energy infrastructure investor, Quinbrook, which has reorganised its top management to take a more active global role in supply chain planning, is now focusing on battery materials and critical mineral processing. The mineral push is being bundled with other existing Quad activities, including a logistics and connectivity drive under the new “Ports of the Future Partnership” that will be formally unveiled in Mumbai, India, in October 2025. The maritime thrust of this programme is to develop resilient infrastructure for the transportation and processing of essential minerals in the Indo-Pacific ports. Strategic Partnerships Beyond the Quad: Bilateralism, Trilateralism and Risks In addition to quadrilateral cooperation under the Quad, members have also deepened relationships through a combination of bilateral and trilateral relationships. India and Australia have a critical minerals investment agreement signed in 2023, with an eye on lithium and rare earths and India also signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States in 2024 to increase cooperation on battery minerals such as lithium and cobalt. Likewise, Japan has been working with Australia in the area of mineral processing and investment for a long time, in addition to establishing the Australia-Japan Critical Minerals Partnership in 2023. Trilaterally, the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI) by India, Japan and Australia seeks to diversify and develop infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. and Australia are co-leading a working group on critical minerals to guarantee sustainable extraction and refining methods. Collectively, these interactions support the Quad’s multilateral pledge so that each of the four partners can project its influence through targeted and effective bilateral and trilateral arrangements. But some warn that bilateral agreements, particularly given the U.S. policy under the current administration to negotiate directly, could dilute the multilateral nature of the Quad’s work. It needs to be pointed out that if bilateralism is pursued to the neglect of multilateralism, there is a risk that successful regional cooperation will disintegrate into fractured competition. However, the latest QUAD summit represents a significant step in its evolution from a loose strategic conversation into a driver of mutual industrial policy. The extent to which this shift can be a successful one will depend on how rapidly these partners can implement their investment plans, work out standardised policies and maintain cohesion in the face of evolving geopolitical priorities. With the Quad gearing up for the next summit later this year, the focus will be on where the mineral initiative fits into wider economic security aims. With China’s increasing grip on mineral refining, the initiative may become one of the most consequential pillars of the Quad’s evolving agenda in the Indo-Pacific. Kaveri Jain is a Ph.D. Scholar at Amity Institute of International Studies (AIIS), Amity University, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India. ...