4 January 2025, NIICE Commentary 9826
Dr. Shambhavi Thite
The Indo-Pacific region has become a focal point of geopolitical interest, influenced by the ascendance of China, the critical nature of maritime trade routes, and the active participation of major nations such as the United States, Japan, and India. Historically regarded as a continental centre with minimal involvement in maritime issues, Central Asia is now receiving increased scrutiny for its potential contribution to the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific. This shift in perspective is driven by the region’s strategic geographical position, abundant energy resources, and enhanced connectivity with South and Southeast Asia. To comprehend the changing role of Central Asia, it is essential to examine its historical context, economic interconnections, security dilemmas, and the strategies employed by both regional and global powers.
Historical Context and Geostrategic Significance
Central Asia, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, has long been recognized as a pivotal junction for trade, cultural exchange, and geopolitical conflicts. Its geographical positioning between Europe, the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia endows the region with a strategic significance comparable to that of key maritime chokepoints in the Indo-Pacific. Historically, Central Asia has maintained close ties with Russia and China, largely due to its proximity and shared historical experiences. However, there is a growing influence from nations such as India, Japan, and the United States, which regard the region as a vital link for expanding their engagement in the broader Indo-Pacific context (Sengupta, 2020).
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), led by China, has reinforced Central Asia’s status as a vital overland corridor. The establishment of new transportation routes and pipelines has created a connection between China, Europe, and South Asia. This infrastructure offers alternatives to sea routes, thereby reducing the risks linked to critical Indo-Pacific chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca. Consequently, Central Asia’s geostrategic significance has shifted from being marginal in Indo-Pacific discussions to becoming essential for diversifying strategic access.
Economic Connectivity and the New Silk Road
The economic integration of Central Asia within the Indo-Pacific framework is increasingly influenced by its rich natural resources, the development of trade corridors, and a rise in foreign investments. The region’s substantial reserves of oil, natural gas, uranium, and rare earth elements position it as a vital component of global energy security. For example, Kazakhstan ranks among the top uranium producers worldwide, while Turkmenistan possesses some of the largest natural gas reserves, establishing both nations as key contributors to the global energy supply chain. Significant infrastructure projects, such as the Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline and the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) pipeline, are essential for connecting Central Asia’s energy assets to South and East Asia, thereby further embedding the region within Indo-Pacific energy networks (Pant, 2019).
In addition to energy, initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) are instrumental in broadening trade routes. The INSTC facilitates connections between India, Central Asia, and Europe, circumventing traditional obstacles such as Pakistan, which enhances India’s market access while diminishing its dependence on conventional maritime routes. This corridor works in tandem with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), establishing both competitive and complementary pathways that link Central Asia to Indo-Pacific economies. These advancements underscore the strategic importance of Central Asia, transforming it into a pivotal land-based axis for the Indo-Pacific, essential for energy diversification and economic stability (Pant, 2019).
Security Challenges and Regional Stability
Central Asia’s economic integration presents significant opportunities; however, the region’s security dynamics introduce considerable challenges for the Indo-Pacific. This area is characterized by various transnational threats, such as terrorism, drug trafficking, and religious extremism. The 2021 withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan has heightened fears regarding the potential for Taliban influence to extend into Central Asia, which could lead to instability in adjacent regions of South and Southeast Asia. The combination of porous borders and inadequate governance in certain Central Asian countries renders them particularly susceptible to these threats (Cooley & Laruelle, 2021). China’s expanding military footprint in Central Asia, framed as counterterrorism collaboration, has significant repercussions for the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. China’s pre-eminence in the region threatens to marginalize other key players, including India and the United States, potentially establishing new geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is crucial to address the security issues in Central Asia to maintain stability throughout the Indo-Pacific corridor.
The Role of Regional and Global Powers
India has emerged as a crucial player in connecting Central Asia with the Indo-Pacific region, primarily through its “Connect Central Asia” initiative. This approach prioritizes the establishment of political, economic, and security collaborations with Central Asian countries, positioning India as a counterbalance to the increasing influence of China. A key element of this strategy is the development of the Chabahar port in Iran, which grants India direct access to Central Asia and Afghanistan. In contrast to routes that traverse Pakistan, Chabahar allows India to circumvent conventional obstacles, facilitating uninterrupted trade and enhancing economic relations with the landlocked nations of Central Asia. Furthermore, India has committed resources to various regional infrastructure projects, including rail and road systems, to bolster connectivity and supply chains, thereby solidifying its strategic presence within the broader Indo-Pacific context (Joshi, 2020).
In addition to infrastructure development, India has placed significant emphasis on soft power and regional dialogue as integral components of its strategy. Initiatives such as educational exchanges, cultural connections, and collaborations in sectors like information technology and healthcare are designed to deepen India’s engagement with Central Asian countries. These endeavors not only promote economic interdependence but also seek to cultivate goodwill, especially in areas where China’s influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised apprehensions regarding sovereignty and potential debt traps (Joshi, 2020).
Conversely, the United States has utilized its “C5+1” initiative as a framework for dialogue and collaboration with Central Asia. This initiative addresses governance, economic development, and regional security issues, including terrorism and transnational crime. Although the U.S. lacks the historical and geographical ties that Russia and China possess, its focus on fostering democratic governance and transparent economic practices resonates with Central Asian nations that are exploring alternatives to the dominance of China and Russia. By integrating these efforts within its broader Indo-Pacific strategy, the U.S. underscores the interconnectedness of Central Asia with maritime and continental security considerations, further solidifying its importance within the Indo-Pacific framework (Joshi, 2020).
The Complexities of Multipolarity
Central Asia’s involvement in the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific is rendered intricate by its multipolar dynamics. The region is significantly shaped by Russian influence, particularly through entities such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), as well as by Chinese engagement via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Although these affiliations contribute to regional stability, they simultaneously constrain the engagement of other Indo-Pacific powers. The divergent priorities among regional stakeholders can result in disjointed strategies. For example, while India and Japan aim to bolster connectivity and counterbalance China’s rise, Russia remains primarily concerned with preserving its established sphere of influence. This array of competing interests underscores the necessity for a cohesive strategy to effectively incorporate Central Asia into the broader Indo-Pacific security framework.
A Comprehensive Perspective on Integration
For Central Asia to assume a significant position within the Indo-Pacific security framework, it is essential to develop a unified strategy that tackles economic, security, and governance issues. Multilateral entities such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) can be utilized to enhance stability and connectivity. Additionally, fortifying regional institutions in Central Asia and integrating them into Indo-Pacific discussions can help unlock the region’s full potential (Wang, 2022).
In conclusion, reevaluating Central Asia’s contribution to the Indo-Pacific security framework underscores its growing significance as a land-based counterpart to maritime strategies. Its strategic geographical position, abundant energy resources, and developing connectivity render it a crucial area for fostering broader stability. Nevertheless, addressing the intricacies of multipolarity, transnational threats, and divergent interests will necessitate sophisticated policies and cooperative initiatives from both Indo-Pacific and Central Asian nations. The integration of Central Asia into the Indo-Pacific framework could serve as a critical element in establishing a balanced and secure regional order.
Dr. Shambhavi Thite is a Senior Doctoral Fellow at the Centre for Inner Asian Studies within the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, India.
