7 February 2025, NIICE Commentary 9929
Shubhi Malhotra
China is well known for its ambitious infrastructure projects and seeking to expand its power across multiple domains, which has yet again sparked controversy with its mega-dam plan Recently, it has approved the plan to build the world’s largest hydropower dam on none other than the Yarlung Zangbo also known as the Brahmaputra River in India, at an estimated cost of $137 Billion. Positioned in the river’s lower reaches to the Medog region near the Arunachal Pradesh border, the location where the river plunges along the “Great Bend” as it enters India offers significant potential for electricity generation. However, given the dam’s strategic placement and the river’s importance for millions downstream, this project must be viewed not only as an energy initiative but also as a geopolitical maneuver.
The Bone of Contentions
According to Xinhua news agency, this dam is safe and prioritizes ecology, to help achieve carbon neutral goals of China. But here lies the main problem as it has sparked tensions in India and Bangladesh due to many reasons. Expert environmentalists have claimed that the proposed location is highly prone to earthquakes and landslides, creating significant risks for the region, as well as the neighbouring countries of India and Bangladesh, especially if there is any accident or water-related disaster. This has created fear, and it has become important for a reassessment of the project.
The geopolitical tension between China and India is another bone of contention. Although the dispute that arose in 2020 saw some progress with both sides withdrawing their troops from the border areas, the mistrust between both continues. The Chinese claims of Arunachal Pradesh as its part and naming it ‘South Tibet’ has already met with a displeasing taste from India, the decision to construct this dam near the Arunachal’s border adding to this concern and fear. As water from the Brahmaputra River is an important source of agriculture and drinking water supply for the majority of the North Eastern states, this can create water scarcity and related issues. China can also use this dam to manipulate the flow of river and dominate the water-sharing agreements further in its own interest. The river brings along with itself a lot of sediments required for agriculture by the farmers, and rich amounts of vegetation and fish, adding to the dietary needs of the people. Blocking this flow would also block the flow of this natural biodiversity, adding to the woes of the people.
As and when China builds this mega dam, it can divert the flow of water for various other purposes. This diversion of water could leave downstream regions—especially the northeastern states of India—facing chronic shortages, while sudden heavy releases could trigger catastrophic floods in areas like Assam, which is already vulnerable. In Bangladesh, where the river is known as the Jamuna, the reduced water flow would negatively impact fishing and agriculture, potentially harming the economy and deepening tensions with India, a relationship which is already under strain.
The Response
It is unethical for a country to unilaterally proceed with a plan that also has impacts on other countries. Since it is known that the Brahmaputra is a transboundary river shared by three countries, China should have adopted the cooperative decision-making approach, in which proper consultation with the Indian and Bangladeshi governments should have been conducted before granting the approval to the dam. The absence of such collaboration violates the interests and rights of India and Bangladesh. Although an Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) was established in 2006 between India and China to exchange hydrological data—particularly during flood seasons—the lack of a legally binding water-sharing agreement, similar to the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan, leaves a critical gap in the regional water governance.
The Indian government has continuously raised this issue with the Chinese government, urging them to ensure transparency so that the downstream regions are not affected negatively in any way. Additionally, in response to China’s plans, India has proposed to build the Siang Dam in the Upper Siang District of Arunachal Pradesh, along the Brahmaputra River. This will be majorly built to counter the mega dam that China will build. This will also enable India to assert control over its share of water resources, and also boost the economy and infrastructure of Arunachal Pradesh, mitigating any impact which China’s move can have over the region. Strong surveillance systems have been developed to keep track of Chinese activities along the border, such as the development of the dam as well as any other activity. Early warning systems for floods are also essentially developed to keep the states alert and take due safety measures before the occurrence of the disaster. Strengthening diplomatic channels with Bangladesh and advocating for a legally binding water-sharing agreement would further bolster the region’s resilience.
Conclusion
China’s plans to construct the world’s largest dam are claimed to be ecologically safe and would not cause any problems for the downstream regions. It is just for the purpose of generating hydropower for the country. While all this remains, it actually presents immense geopolitical and environmental challenges. However, its unilateral approval disregards the need for cooperation with India and Bangladesh, two countries whose livelihoods depend on the Brahmaputra’s natural flow. India must adopt a multifaceted strategy that includes robust diplomatic engagement, accelerated infrastructural development, and regional collaboration to counter the potential risks posed by China’s actions. Establishing binding agreements and strengthening alliances will be critical for maintaining national security, protecting ecological and agricultural interests, and ensuring long-term regional stability and peace.
Shubhi Malhotra is currently pursuing a Master’s in the subject of Defense and Strategic Studies at Dayanand Anglo-Vedic College, under Chhatrapati Shahu Ji Maharaj University, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh (India).
