India-US Relations Amidst the Maritime Great Game in the Indo-Pacific: A Power-Transition?

5 February 2025, NIICE Commentary 9924
Urbi Das

International politics is a dynamically evolving complex power game, where nation-states are in a constant struggle to carve out their own area of influence. Indo-Pacific has come into the limelight due to the shift in the fulcrum of power that is manifested mostly in the maritime calculations surrounding the region.  Power Transition Theory espoused by A.F.K. Organski, in his most celebrated book World Politics (1958) refers to changes and shifts in global power where relations among sovereign nation-states are affected by uneven distribution of power. Organski’s theory rests upon the hierarchical ordering of international politics where the rising power of the ‘challenger’ tries to alter the existing structure created by the ‘dominant’ nation in a quest to reorder the balance of influence. Power transition theory happens when the rising power begins to reduce the gap in economic, military, and technological capabilities which leads to the inevitability of conflict between the dominant and challenger nation as the challenger power seeks to revise the international system.

The Indo-Pacific region is a magnanimous playground manifesting the power play of the present century. It is home to more than half of the world’s population including 58 percent of the global youth, accounts for 60 percent of global gross domestic product and two-thirds of global economic growth. It is home to some of the largest and fastest-growing economies of the world and encompasses critical global shipping lanes and energy corridors with strategic choke-points such as the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the geopolitically significant South China Sea. The region has witnessed the rise of China and its assertiveness in the South China Sea, its economic statecraft masquerading in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its strategic and economic expansion throughout the region which is triggered towards challenging the United States of America’s dominance.

The term Maritime Great Game can be understood as the strategic rivalry in the maritime domain of the Indo-Pacific, particularly concerning control over strategic maritime resources, freedom of navigation, and countering the rise of China and its aggressive maneuvers in the region. For India, the Indo-Pacific is not just a geopolitical theatre but is intrinsically linked to its security and political diplomatic,c and economic interests, thus forming a core segment of national security. India’s Act East Policy reflects its increasing focus on maritime security, regional connectivity, and partnerships with key players, including the United States of America. The Indo-Pacific region has become the zone of competition for the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China, both vying for influence and strategic power-play and with India evolving as a key player in this evolving maritime landscape. As the PRC  asserts its maritime claim in the waters of the Indo-Pacific, India and the US are poised to take a more assertive role in the region. Both countries are bound by their shared interests in maintaining a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region and upholding the sovereign equality of all nations against the aggressive stance of the PRC.  The element of maritime security is central to the vision of broader regional and global strategy to promote security, stability, and prosperity in the region.

Key maritime initiatives include the Quadrilateral Security Framework which is a minilateral initiative between US, India, Japan, and Australia that has increasingly emphasized maritime security in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad countries hold regular naval exercises, which include joint patrols and most notably the Malabar Exercise. The Malabar exercise is one of the most significant examples of India-US maritime cooperation that later expanded to include Japan and Australia. These exercises focus on enhancing interoperability, training, and capacity-building, anti-submarine warfare, air defense, and surface warfare have grown in scale over the years. New Delhi and Washington are also working together on up-scaling Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) which includes intelligence sharing, surveillance, and reconnaissance data to track ships and counter-piracy measures to secure the region against potential maritime threats. Along with joint patrolling in the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, both democracies have engaged in joint initiatives such as the India-U.S. Maritime Security Dialogue, LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Cooperation help strengthen the ability of both countries to respond to maritime security challenges. Along with this, India and the United States maritime cooperation transcends the realm of traditional security to address non-traditional security areas such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions such as providing relief in the aftermath of natural disasters like the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, cyclone relief operations, and maritime rescue missions. The success of US-India maritime cooperation in these areas not only strengthens their maritime partnership but also demonstrates their ability and keenness to act together in times of crisis.

Addressing the question of India-US partnership as an outcome of any larger power transition taking place in the Indo-Pacific, it can be seen one of the reasons of deepening of India-US maritime cooperation over the years has been the growing influence of China in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), that includes Beijing’s assertive territorial claims in the SCS, its massive economic investments encompassing the Indo-Pacific region, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its military build-ups across the region have raised concerns about freedom of navigation and regional security. Both New Delhi and Washington have been vocal in advocating for adherence to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and ensuring that all nations can freely navigate global commons. Since President Barack Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ which laid the foundation of a robust Indo-Pacific strategy, the India-US partnership has entered a new journey. The partnership was solidified with the Trump Administration which emphasized the Freeupon Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision to counterbalance China’s aggressive stance in the region. During President Biden’s, India-US relations have continued to deepen, with both countries recognizing the importance of working together to ensure regional stability, maritime security, and intelligence sharing. India is increasingly viewed as a credible partner, both for its geographic significance, economic prowess, and its capacity to counterbalance China’s naval dominance.

In the maritime great game unfolding in the Indo-Pacific, where the US and India, along with other like-minded regional powers might play a crucial role in balancing against China’s rise. Again, the growing India-US partnership in the Indo-Pacific leads to a contemplation of whether such convergence is a signal of a larger power transition in the Indo-Pacific as the world awaits to witness how the collective convergence more specifically in the maritime domain would eventually challenge PRC’s dominance in the region and its implications in the future of the Indo-Pacific region.

Urbi Das is an Assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations, Jadavpur University, India.