22 December 2024, NIICE Commentary 9796
Syed Ali Abbas & Maryyum Masood
Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House in 2025 has raised alarm among Western allies, who view his foreign policy as a disruptive challenge to traditional alliances. While his unconventional approach may unsettle the Western establishment, it could present new opportunities for countries in the Global South. However, the Global South is far from a monolithic entity, and countries within it are likely to respond to Trump’s policies in diverse ways. Countries with larger economies, such as Brazil, or South Africa, may use his transactional style to negotiate more favorable trade agreements, while smaller, aid-dependent countries might face challenges adapting to a reduced US focus on multilateral frameworks. For many in the Global South—such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria in Asia; Libya, Somalia, and Sudan in Africa; and Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua in Latin America—Trump’s re-election could mark a departure from the heavily militarized and interventionist US foreign policy that has often destabilized their regions. His preference for diplomacy over military entanglements and his “America First” agenda could empower these nations to pursue more autonomous policies, reduce their reliance on the West, and focus on achieving stability free from external interference.
Trump’s approach to international relations reflects a clear opposition to traditional bloc politics, favoring transactional, bilateral engagements over collective ideological commitments. His skepticism toward multilateral organizations, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—which he criticized for inequitable burden-sharing—and his withdrawal from initiatives like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Paris Climate Accord, in his first term, underscores his preference for US autonomy over bloc-based cooperation. Anchored in his “America First” philosophy, Trump prioritized US interests, often renegotiating trade agreements for example the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), rather than relying on larger multilateral frameworks. His diplomacy often focused on direct engagement with individual leaders, such as Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin, bypassing traditional alliance structures and challenging the unity of blocs like the G7. Additionally, his reluctance to engage in proxy conflicts, as seen in his criticism of extensive military aid to Ukraine and his efforts to reduce US military involvement in Afghanistan, highlights his disinterest in perpetuating Cold War-era geopolitical rivalries. While this approach diminished the relevance of traditional bloc politics, his unpredictability and emphasis on US dominance sometimes reinforced global divisions.
A Multipolar and Transactional World Order
Trump’s transactional approach to foreign relations, prioritizing economic deals over ideological conflicts, offers promising opportunities for the Global South. This shift could unlock new avenues for trade and investment, free from the political preconditions that often accompanied agreements under previous US administrations. His pragmatic stance allows for the creation of mutually beneficial partnerships, enabling developing nations to negotiate trade terms that promote economic growth while preserving their sovereignty and governance autonomy. This shift also aligns closely with the Global South’s aspiration for a multipolar world order, where no single power holds dominant influence. Trump’s aversion to multilateral institutions like NATO and traditional alliances could result in a diminished US presence on the global stage. Such a pullback has the potential to empower regional organizations, for example, the African Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), allowing them to take on more prominent roles in governance and security. However, while these organizations may gain prominence, they face significant structural and operational limitations. The African Union, for example, often struggles with funding shortages and member-state coordination, while the SCO’s diverse membership sometimes hinders consensus-building. For these organizations to effectively step up in a decentralized global order, they will need to address these challenges and strengthen their capacity to manage regional conflicts and governance issues autonomously. Due to these limitations, it becomes clear that while regional organizations have the potential to assume larger roles, their success will depend on overcoming internal obstacles and enhancing collective action.
An Opportunity for the Global South
Trump’s disengagement from traditional bloc politics and his preference for bilateral relations provide a unique opportunity for specific countries in the Global South to adopt independent strategies, strengthen regional partnerships, and contribute to shaping a multipolar world order aligned with their interests. For example, Indonesia and other ASEAN nations could gain greater flexibility to navigate their foreign policies, particularly in addressing sensitive issues like the South China Sea disputes, without being compelled to choose sides in the US-China competition. In Africa, nations such as Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa could benefit in sectors like infrastructure development and agriculture, negotiating bilateral trade and investment agreements that better cater to their development priorities, free from governance restrictions typically imposed by Western blocs. Similarly, in Latin America, countries like Brazil and Argentina might use Trump’s transactional approach to reshape trade terms in sectors such as energy and commodities, particularly through platforms like BRICS, which emphasize regional cooperation and multipolarity. However, smaller nations, particularly those heavily reliant on preferential trade agreements or aid, could face challenges negotiating on equal terms with the US focused on maximizing its own benefits. This dynamic underscores the importance of strategic and calculated engagement by Global South countries to maximize potential opportunities while managing risks. Moreover, countries like Afghanistan, long affected by US military interventions, could prioritize stabilizing their domestic affairs and reducing dependence on external powers for security.
Trump’s Unpredictability
While there is cautious optimism among countries in the Global South about Trump’s potential return, his unpredictability poses a significant challenge. His unfiltered rhetoric and impulsive decision-making have, in the past, created global uncertainty, disrupting markets and straining diplomatic relations. Trump’s foreign policy contradictions further complicate the picture. For instance, while he has criticized military interventions and sought to reduce US involvement in foreign conflicts, his actions—such as escalating economic sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela or engaging in a trade war with China—have often reinforced global divisions and created instability. Additionally, his tendency to prioritize short-term gains over long-term strategy could leave smaller nations vulnerable, particularly those that rely on stable trade partnerships or multilateral agreements. For the Global South, the key will be to engage with the Trump-led US strategically, carefully balancing the pursuit of economic opportunities with the need to mitigate risks associated with abrupt policy shifts that could threaten regional stability. Navigating the volatility of his leadership will require calculated diplomacy and contingency planning to address the potential fallout from unpredictable decisions.
In sum, Trump’s potential return to the White House offers a complex mix of challenges and opportunities for the Global South. While Western allies may prepare for disruptions to traditional alliances, many developing nations could see his presidency as a chance to redefine their relationships with the United States. By prioritizing more balanced trade relations and scaling back militarized oversight, a Trump administration could enable the Global South to assert greater autonomy and contribute to shaping a multipolar and equitable global order. Despite the uncertainty surrounding his unconventional approach, Trump’s leadership might provide these nations with a rare opportunity to emerge as a collective force, playing a more significant role in international affairs.
Syed Ali Abbas is a Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad and Maryyum Masood is a Research Officer & Associate Editor at the same institute.
