20 December 2024, NIICE Commentary 9793
Dr. Manan Dwivedi & Shonit Nayan
The sobriquet of a benign hegemon clings to India despite New Delhi being forthright in its approach and aid and succor to the South Asian nations in the general regional rigamarole of South Asia. Bangladesh is a moot point in the contemporary context. In the post-Sheikh Hasina (August 2024 onwards) context there seemingly is an advent of anarchy and a want of rule of law in the manner minorities have been targeted in a secular state of the order of Bangladesh. India has always played the role of a friendly and big brotherly neighborhood- with its “Neighborhood First policy” or approach, where the region benefits from its association with India since the independence of the Indian nation-state.
Still, strategically and diplomatically speaking, India had a trusted ally in Sheikh Hasina who was always tilted towards New Delhi. The urgency of canceling mid-way through her visit to China reflected that a political storm had been brewing in Dhaka for the last few months. It’s a startling fact that the legacy of Bangabandhu, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman (1920-1975) was challenged in the name of protesting against the employment opportunities available in Bangladesh. As the saying goes with GREAT power comes great responsibility, New Delhi has to walk a tightrope walk as it is common knowledge that the American deep State is behind how Sheikh Hasina has been ousted from the seat of power in the aftermath of the student’s revolution, and the other political opposition parties playing spoilsport for the region and the nation at large.
India and Bangladesh share an amicable relationship characterized by commonalities in history, language, culture, and other multitudes, as well as a border (4,096 the fifth-longest border in the world) and trade camaraderie with each other. The outstanding bilateral ties between these two South Asian neighbors reflect an all-encompassing partnership based on equality, sovereignty, mutual trust, and understanding that goes far beyond a strategic partnership. And over the time period, this partnership has only strengthened, matured, and evolved as a model for bilateral relations for the entire region and beyond.
The way the 24 Pargana border dispute was resolved between both the nations, does not let much embitterment engulf the relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka. Eighty percent of the garments trade in Dhaka is constituted by its global and regional exports. With the recent official visit of the Indian Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri amid the fast- deteriorating relations between these two neighboring nations, raising questions about the advisor to the Dhaka’s interim Government, India has objected to the difficulties being faced by the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh in a post-Sheikh Hasina phase. The bilateral, and once model, relationship, with Bangladesh, has been unraveling ever since.
ANI reports in Business Standard that, “ Expressing surprise over the Biden administration “not paying more attention to Bangladesh”, former USCIRF Commissioner Johnnie Moore has expressed concern over the situation concerning minorities and said, This is a moment of existential threat not only for the minorities of Bangladesh but for the entire country. “I am astonished that the current administration hasn’t been paying more attention to Bangladesh. But the fact of the matter is, that one of the reasons why there’s going to be a change of administration in the United States in just a few weeks is because the foreign policy of this administration has not paid attention to a lot of issues. That’s why there are more than 50 conflicts all around the world, more since World War II.” Thus, the international community inclusive of New Delhi and the White House has raised a red rag to the political violence which has been recently witnessed in Bangladesh. Also, how the trade embargoes over Pakistan trading and doing business with Bangladesh have been viewed with suspicion and grave concern by the New Delhi denomination. Pakistan and Bangladesh appeared to solidify their trade and marine relationship when a cargo ship out of Karachi was recently pictured docked at Bangladesh’s Chittagong Port.
This is the first direct maritime trade connection between the two countries since the 1971 Liberation War. It is a breakthrough in ties for Pakistan, especially after the ouster of Bangladesh’s former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, and the new regime led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus.
India has always been a benefactor for Dhaka and how the current change in the Regime has occurred sheds doubt about the general upkeep of healthy and fruitfully positive relationships between the twin neighbors. India and Bangladesh have also been very close to mutual allyhood where talks were on during the Shiekh Hasina Regime to initiate an FTA ( Free Trade Area) between both nations. Also, voices are being raised in India that the disdain towards the minorities in Bangladesh is a cause of concern for India and the slew of protests by Hindus all across the global firmament has initiated a quandary in the larger context of the bilateral relationship. How the 2022 and 2019 water treaties involving 54 river bodies are shared by both neighbors speaks volumes about the trust and cooperative paradigm being shared by both nations.
As a summation, one may contend that Mohammad Yunus, the advisor to the Interim Government in Bangladesh would be better placed to initiate reforms in the electoral, judicial, and Bureaucratic firmament in the larger context of the revolutionary spirit in the Garment hub of South Asia. India needs to calibrate clearly to Dhaka that the idea of cozying up to Pakistan and allowing them and their security agencies a free hand to the Indian antagonists needs to be delved inside with greater deal by the New Interim Government in Dhaka. Thus, political stability and normalcy of peace need to be the paramount concerns for the Dhaka Regime with the idiom of sustaining cordial and mutually beneficial relationships between both nations for the advent of a BIMSTEC-led regionalism ethos in South Asia.
Dr. Manan is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Indian Institute of Public Administration, and Shonit is a Consultant at Ernst & Young LLP, New Delhi, India.
