20 September 2023, NIICE Commentary 8801
Akanksha Roy
One of the significant repercussions of the Cold War was that the world was advancing towards the jeopardy of unipolar politics played by the West. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union ended the bipolarity which gave way to the Western Alliance’s dominance. Therefore, to maintain the equilibrium – or the balance of power – BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) came into existence in 2006. Later on, South Africa was added to the bloc making it BRICS in 2010. It intends to develop the Global South region and bridge the gap between developed and developing nations.
The 15th Summit of BRICS held at Johannesburg was marked as a historic event as six new countries were invited to join the prestigious association and with this, the GDP and population of BRICS escalated to 29 percent and 46 percent from 25.77 percent and 40.9 percent respectively. This is an important move towards multipolarism which will counter the US and EU hegemony since the formation of a common BRICS currency has been proposed to counter US dollarisations.
However, China can be a dominant player within the organization having the highest trade surplus of 857 billion dollars. Unlike India, China is maintaining great bilateral relations with the Arab world as well as Argentina which is the third-largest economy in Southern Latin America. For Argentina, China is a significant trading ally. In the case of Iran, the bilateral trade between China and Iran has been expanding lately. For instance, Iran is exporting 1.5 billion (BPD) barrels per day of its oil to China. Since Iran is a victim of American sanctions, the trade relations between India and Iran are very limited. China is also winning diplomatically by brokering a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both countries had intense and long tensions due to shia-sunni conflict. Moreover, there is an increase in the demand for fintech, artificial intelligence, electric cars, and renewable energy in the Middle East. All these demands can be fulfilled by China since it plays a leading role in all these sectors. Furthermore, the ideology of China and Saudi Arabia is the same. Both follow authoritarianism. More or less, Iran is also having the elements of authoritarianism. This may lead to a trilateral alliance which can help China dominate the BRICS. The ties between China and Ethiopia are also progressing immensely whereas the trade relations between India and Ethiopia are not much at all. China has its military base in Djibouti that is the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Hence, China may spread its influence to Ethiopia. Having influence on these regions, China may control the Bab al-Mandab Strait which acts as a critical link between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal and Red Sea. For Egypt, China tops the list of major trading partners followed by the US. Moreover, Egypt is one of the closest allies of Saudi Arabia. This will automatically strengthen the bilateral relations between China and Egypt. Hence, it will enable China to enhance its influence, since Egypt is one of the basin countries of the Red Sea. In addition, the Suez Canal is under Egyptian control which links it to the Mediterranean Sea. For the UAE, both India and China are equally important but China’s influence is rapidly enhancing towards the Middle Eastern countries which can be one of the reasons for China’s dominance. The expansion of BRICS can also act as a helping hand in the revival of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project which can support China in fulfilling its geopolitical ambitions. China is also implementing the policy of green finance in the BRI project to set its own standards. Although it is a positive move towards environmental development in market mechanisms, it is an indirect way to ensure that the “Chinese standard” is accepted in other nations. The Global South can come under the influence of economic imperialism by China making it a Sino-centric regional ecosystem. Therefore, BRICS expansion can play a key role in the rise of China’s dominance.
India’s Concern on Expansion
India was reluctant to expand the BRICS since the inclusion of more members may reduce the originality and relevance of the bloc. Furthermore, India is not interested in converting BRICS into an anti-western alliance. Since Iran is a sanction-hit country, it can act as an obstacle to BRICS trade advancement. Middle East countries tensions can also be a hindrance to the smooth functioning of BRICS. Although India is shifting towards multi-alignment from non-alignment, it will be immensely challenging for India to maintain balance among alliances like QUAD, SCO, and IPEF.
Currently, India and China are not on good terms due to cross-border issues. On the other hand, China and Pakistan are maintaining fine military as well as economic relations. For instance, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which comes under the BRI project. This corridor will pass across Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) which can be a big concern for India. Amid this situation, the expansion of BRICS can make China immensely powerful, since the project will positively impact Iran, a country which is an important trade ally of China and a new BRICS member.
The Strategic Importance of BRICS Expansion for India
Although India was not willing to expand the BRICS, the expansion generated various opportunities for the country to refine and establish geopolitical relations with countries like Egypt and Ethiopia in the African continent and Argentina in South America.
Geostrategically, Egypt is the most significant country in the African continent because of the Red Sea and Suez Canal. In addition, Egypt can prove to be a profitable ally for India since its diplomatic and economic connections with West Asian, European and African markets are great. Hence, the inclusion of Egypt in the BRICS can be an opportunity for India to challenge China’s influence in the region. In the matter of Ethiopia, India is an ancient player since both countries share a prolonged trading history. Both countries have gone through the past of unacceptable European intrusion. Although trade relations between these two countries are not up to the mark, India has always taken a stand in the improvisation of the Ethiopian economy by investing in the country. Since China has a military base in Djibouti, Ethiopia can be a critical strategic ally to counter China’s dominance in the region. Furthermore, Ethiopia can act as a helping hand to India’s Agalega Military Base construction by providing manpower to India which can be fruitful for both nations. Including Argentina in BRICS can be important to India since Argentina is abundant in natural minerals. Moreover, both countries are establishing bilateral relations in terms of research and development in the field of science and technology. This will immensely boost the military power as well as artificial intelligence of India. For instance, geospatial technology and quantum computation. This will enable India to match the proficiency of China’s military power and technology. Furthermore, all these initiatives will strengthen and enhance the mutual cooperation between the two countries.
Although there are certain tensions between India and China, antagonizing a neighbour can never be a long-term solution for both countries. As it is said by India’s former Prime Minister Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, “You can change friends, but not neighbours”. Therefore, other than bilateral trade, India and China should work together on Clean Energy under “congagement” by eradicating CO2 emissions since China tops the list of CO2-producing countries followed by India. Hence, cooperation should be prioritised instead of conflict as it can be fruitful for both Asian giants.
The call for the BRICS expansion can be said as a very smooth way for China to set foot in those regions from where the US has backed off. For instance, the Middle East. It can be said that China has successfully filled up the power vacuum that was left by the US. Thus, the expansion may lead to the Sino-centric world order and China may emerge as a superpower replacing the US in future.
Akanksha Roy has done Masters in Political Science from Jamshedpur Women’s University, Jharkhand, India.
