5 October 2023, NIICE Commentary 8804
Maybelyne A. Osias

Perhaps nowhere in the entire world is the impact of China’s inroads more visibly acute and viscerally contested than in the Indo-Pacific Region. The region encompasses the most dynamic conglomeration of economies and politically diverse entities undergoing transition and experiencing opportunities and risks of China’s economic growth and its political influence simultaneously. Whether through a growing reliance on China’s cheap labour or as a client to its capital outlays, the Indo-Pacific region is fast becoming enveloped by China’s growing economic and political orbit.

In China’s immediate periphery – Asia, there is a nascent China strategy in these sub-regions that is driven by different sets of policy priorities for Beijing; however, its reach in the Indo-Pacific has moved far beyond just its many corners. Beijing’s economic advancements are solidifying the political links that are essential for securing political backing for its push for the energy and resources required to power its growing economy.

China’s Grand Strategy for Peaceful Rise

‘Peaceful Rise’ is China’s key strategic concept proposed by China’s fourth-generation leaders in order to maximize China’s development opportunities by countering the international perception of the ‘China threat’. Numerous data indicate that China’s ‘peaceful growth’ is only rhetoric and a pretext for China to advance steadily into the position of a new hegemony that would eventually confront the US. Behind the rhetoric is Beijing’s complete grand strategy, which combines military build-up with proactive foreign policy to forge alliances that are advantageous to China. This is done by exploiting both China’s military might and its enormous economic resources, which include foreign investment, international funding, and economic aid. Ironically, it is in many ways a reversed version of the grand strategy that the US once employed during the Cold War, when it was at its most powerful.

A number of long-standing, potentially crippling social and environmental challenges that have gotten worse in recent years are present in China’s rise and have the potential to derail the country’s slow-motion economic development. China continues to be a one-party authoritarian state that represses all political dissent; it still sees all organized political associations as dangerous; and it still uses sophisticated censorship techniques to control the information that would otherwise be available to its citizens.

It is being questioned whether the concept of “peaceful rise,” which Beijing has vigorously promoted throughout the world, is supported by facts or not, according to Ikegami, as China’s actual actions frequently run counter to the idea, reducing it to mere rhetoric or strategic propaganda. The following examples show this:

  • China’s rapid military build-up
  • China’s emerging global power projection over natural resources
  • Aid-for-oil or oil-for-arms: China’s policy towards Africa
  • China’s expanding soft power
  • Taiwan losing military parity vis-a-vis China.
  • A marginalized Taiwan, anti-Americanism, and overstretched US forces
  • The cross-strait conflict

External Approaches to the Indo-Pacific Region

According to Foot, China’s relationship with the US and its internal concerns both influence its regional strategy. Under the US unipolar framework, China intends to achieve its objectives of internal development, stability, and prevention of Taiwan’s independence with the aim of establishing itself as a “responsible great power.” China’s rise and US dominance in terms of securing natural resources and interest in Asia inherently pose a conflict of interest.

China is the world’s largest producer of goods, thus Foot thinks that in order to keep up its current level of output, China requires a reliable source of energy and raw materials. Since 1997, Chinese officials have outlined the new foreign policy known as the “New Security Concept,” emphasizing the assertiveness rather than the reactionary nature of the new approach and the importance of forging relationships with neighbours on the basis of mutual trust and shared interests. Beijing’s provision of financial aid to countries affected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis is proof of this.

Since then, China has taken an active role in multilateral institutions such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the six-party talks over the North Korean nuclear issue. China has had success in the region, particularly in the fields of trade. By engaging in military exchanges around the region and increasing transparency in its annual defence white papers, the Chinese leadership intended to shift how others viewed its military threat. All of this helps to allay the Indo-Pacific governments’ fears that China may use its economic might to build up a dangerous sphere of military and security influence.

China’s Policies toward the Indo-Pacific Region and its Geopolitical Implications

China’s internal needs and its relations with the US interact in a way that predominantly shapes its regional policies. It wants to be able to function and achieve its objectives within a state-based system that still gives the US a lot of sway. Despite significant overall progress toward its policy objectives. Indo-Pacific nations continue to harbour some lingering worries that China’s economic might may eventually translate into considerable military force. Beijing’s long-term military goals are unmistakable, which has caused regional powers, particularly in the Indo-Pacific area, to adopt hedging methods. This tactic goes beyond a simple balance of power approach. It entails entangling China economically and institutionally through organizations like the ARF, the APT, and similar ones, as well as discursively through non-use of force rhetoric. It also entails preserving relationships and other governments’ interests in the regional security order.

China’s economic rise predated the Asian financial crisis. Its stable and fast economic growth has raised both opportunities and challenges for the Indo-Pacific region. According to a Chinese analyst, China’s peaceful rise has had the following outcomes based on IMF reports: (1) it provided a new driving force to global economic development, especially in the Indo-Pacific region; (2) contributed an average of 34.9 percent to world economic growth; (3) helped the Indo-Pacific accelerate to 4.6 percent this year; and (4) helped the region overcome the financial crisis by keeping its currency stable while expanding domestic demand.

The rise of China has created an unsettling effect in the region. Already a sizable nation, China has enormous potential to become a global force, to overtake the US in economic, political, and military power and influence in the next few decades. As was already mentioned, its rise has undoubtedly been advantageous for the Indo-Pacific. However, should its rise continue without serious interruption, it could be a towering giant dwarfing even the global hyperpower and major regional powers. Should its rise be interrupted by disruptive forces leading to system failure, the fallout would affect the region in detrimental ways. Surely the image of Chinese people in their thousands.

Conclusion

The effects of China’s growing economic and political clout in the Indo-Pacific are imminent and can already be seen and felt by states throughout the region, eliciting varying reactions anchored by a prevailing sense of guarded uncertainty. No state in the area has a clear plan for dealing with China’s ascent, that much is certain. The scientific premise that we can at least examine the drivers of a thrust to estimate its direction cannot be ignored, regardless of how accurate this judgment may be. To understand how far China’s ascent will go and where it may ultimately have to halt, it is important to examine the internal forces that are pulling the levers as well as the international context in which it will occur.

Maybelyne Osias is a Research Intern at NIICE. Currently, she is perusing Bachelor of Arts in International Studies at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines – Manila.