5 September 2023, NIICE Commentary 8798
Rajyavishek Pradhan
In the middle of the twenty-first century, the general argument that has been debated time and over is the decline of The US Hegemony in world politics and its impact on International Relations and Global Governance. As a harbinger of an apparent new world order, the US hegemonic decline has been theorised and its particular configuration has kept scholars busy in the past and present. Renowned scholars hold the opinion that America in the twenty-first century is a declining power. Various structural, political, and systematic reasons have contributed to this ongoing decline.
Generally, Hegemony can be understood as dominance based primarily on dominated people’s and groups’ consent rather than purely on a leader’s coercion and exerted force, especially by one state or social group, over others. The US Hegemony comprises structural power, hard power, and soft power. The bedrock of contemporary US power lies in the overwhelming superiority of its military and naval power. It is both relative and absolute. The US approach to hegemony after World War II was one that mixed its obvious hard military power with soft power and the principles of multilateralism, discourse, and compromises in creating norms and institutions to steer the international system in a direction of its choosing (Wiess, Wilkinson, 2018: 317). The power, that America projects are a combination of both persuasion and coercion. The US military outspends all other states and it has the largest GDP in the world. With a staggering GDP of more than USD20 trillion, the United States of America is the world’s largest economy. According to Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index 2023, The USA ranks number one. It is also no surprise that it ranks number one in the Annual Global Fire Power rankings in terms of military strength.
According to Francis Fukuyama (2021), the peak period of American hegemony lasted twenty years, from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the financial crisis in 2007-09. The height of American hubris was the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The unipolarity that ushered in a new era of dominance after the fall of The Soviet Union was capitulated by America. It asserted its position in the world as the global leader and heightened its influence over the nation-states of the world.
The Decline
Even though the USA has exhibited overwhelming military, economic, political, technological, and cultural power in the post-war era, there are various shortcomings and challenges that the USA as a Global Hegemon has been facing over the last couple of decades. Challenges to US hegemony are a result of several developments. In the ideological sphere, the ambitious strategy of “Liberal Hegemony” (Mearsheimer, 2018) adopted by America in the aftermath of the Cold War has resulted in an abject failure. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 is one indication that the USA is a declining power. The crisis reportedly had an adverse effect on American domestic politics, making it one of the worst in almost eight decades. Following the Great Recession, many people lost their homes, assets, or jobs.
The decline of US hegemony can also be cited from its excessive military overstretch. The global image of the USA as a powerhouse began to take a sharp turn with the advent of the military expedition in Afghanistan, and the “Global War on Terror” in Syria and Iraq. More than 750 military sites and surveillance facilities are maintained by the US throughout more than 130 nations. Concerns about American hegemony have been generated by the country’s military incursions and its position as a stern arbitrator in The Global South and other developing and underdeveloped nations.
Deep polarisation in American society has harmed the country’s influence abroad and impacted its foreign policy. The Black Lives Matter Movement, The January 6 United States Capitol Attack, and the beginning of the Trump Administration’s mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic all contributed to the regime change that has allowed for America’s collapse as a global hegemon. The Biden Administration’s recent failure to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its embarrassing retreat from Afghanistan serve as more evidence that America is mired in internal contradictions.
The emergence of China as a global power, particularly its rise as an economic power, and the fact that Chinese manufacturing companies are out-producing US companies is another reason for concern. According to an expert, in the space of just a few decades, the global economy has become more dependent on the Chinese industry for parts and components (Winder, 2020:17). Financial institutions such as BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have rivalled the US-led Bretton Woods System and The Washington Consensus. As an implication, the economic balance of power started shifting towards the East with China taking up the mantle of the leader of the new economic structure and order. China is expected to surpass the US as the world’s largest manufacturer and is predicted to become the world’s largest economy in dollar-based GDP by 2041.
The Emergence of a New World Order
All hierarchical human systems exhibit a sequence of concentration and deconcentration of power, but the nature of power and the causes of rise and fall evolve as world systems get larger and more complex (Dunn, Kwon, Lawrence, Inoue, Vol.37, 2009: 1). The world’s unipolarity is coming to an end as a result of America’s slow decline. The growth of China and other emerging powers like India is a product of the new multilateral international order. Through its massive economic stature, The West which was led by The US has been finding it difficult to emerge as a rule-maker in the twenty-first century. The balance of influence in the sphere of economy, particularly geo-economy, is being shifted to China. A new dominant order without the United States is being paved over by China’s rise and its control over international institutions like the United Nations (UN) and other Inter-Governmental Organisations.
The US Hegemony is facing the most entrenching challenges in recent times and it is often failing to counter the alternative world views. Against this backdrop, an alternative view suggests an impending new multilateral world order will mark a new era of international relations. It has also been suggested that the USA is not likely to regain its earlier hegemonic status. International relations and global governance may enter a new phase without unipolarity as a result of the current and ongoing power shift from the West to the East.
Rajyavishek Pradhan is a Post Graduate student of Political Science, India.
