22 September 2021, NIICE Commentary 7350
Dr. Hemant Adlakha
Perhaps it has to do with the Communist Party of China’s Leninist “culture” or “style of functioning,” the party leadership always draws “lessons” from a failure or from a major event. The lesson Xi Jinping has learnt from “burning fingers” with the former US President Donald Trump not once but twice is: never take on face value the sudden “sweet talk” or “softening of tone” posturing by a US president. On the flip side, President Xi proved himself wiser when he did not take Biden’s bait for a summit meeting and turned him (Biden) down during the two leaders’ telephone conversation two weeks ago. Xi might have forgotten Biden calling him a “thug” during the presidential campaign last October, but by rejecting Biden’s offer for a face-to-face meeting, Xi has made it clear he hasn’t forgotten Biden adopting a harsh line on China from the first day on entering the White House.
Regardless of Biden denying his call to Xi for a one-to-one meeting having fallen on Xi’s “deaf ears,” the US media widely reported the Chinese leader categorically telling Biden to “first improve the tone and atmosphere of the US-China relationship.” However, with the announcement of the establishment of AUKUS, Biden seems to have further “angered” his “Thucydides” challenger in Beijing. China has strongly denounced the new US-UK-Australia military pact as focused on the Indo-Pacific but aimed against the People’s Republic of China. Singling out Australia among the three Anglosphere member countries of the suddenly announced new military pact, Beijing has bluntly asked Canberra to explain whether it sees China as a “partner or a threat.” In the regions’ geopolitical terms, it is of huge significance that by joining AUKUS Australia will become the first country in the Indo-Pacific to receive nuclear-powered submarine technology. The UK is the only other country in the world to have already received nuclear subs from the US.
The Chinese government, China’s foreign ministry and the state-owned media all have heavily lashed at the three countries for their “extremely irresponsible” act. Addressing via video link the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders’ summit meet, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the member countries to resist foreign forces in the region. “Absolutely resist external forces to interfere [in] countries in our region at any excuse,” Xi said. Foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian lambasted the three Anglosphere countries for nuclear-arming Australia, saying “the decision seriously damages regional peace and stability, intensifies the arms race, and undermines the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.” Lijian also pointed out, the US and UK’s action of exporting highly sensitive nuclear submarines once again proves that they are using nuclear exports “as a tool for geopolitical games.” Typically, the state-owned media in China has been far more forthcoming in criticizing the three countries. The English language China Daily chose to hit at Biden and accused the US president of emulating his predecessor. “The Biden administration, for all its claims to be different from its predecessor, seems to have copied one unpleasant mannerism at least and that is how to behave in the region like a street gang boss, amplifying differences and stoking confrontation in a bid to start turf wars,” the newspaper commented in an editorial.
Moreover, whilst overplaying the angry reactions from France disapproving AUKUS, the Chinese media added fuel to the fire by highlighting “the ditching of the country” – France was the previously assigned country to supply submarines to Australia. Following angry outbursts aimed at the US in the parliament over AUKUS Defence and Security Partnership by French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and socialist MP Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who demanded that the country withdraw from NATO, suddenly there has been non-stop spree of op-ed write-ups in the Chinese media both instigating and ridiculing France. Here are a few examples: 法国怨气加重，北约赶紧“灭火”France Furious, NATO in ‘fire extinguishing’ Act; 法国应该退出北约，中国又不是威胁 Time for France to Leave NATO, China is not a Threat; 这个笑话，美国人笑了，法国人笑不出来 This Joke is making the Americans Laugh, the French are not Laughing.
Amidst reports that the emergence of the US-UK-Australia alliance could overshadow Quad’s geo-strategic aspects, several Chinese commentators did not miss the opportunity of the US and UK’s decision to supply nuclear powered submarines to Australia to pip India and Japan at the post. A recent commentary in Guancha.cn, China’s influential and widely read digital news platform, focuses on the emerging chinks among the Transatlantic allies on the one hand, and targets Japan and India among the US “frontline allies against China” in the Indo-Pacific on the other hand. Contrary to claims in the Indian media that India could gain “major leverage” as Australia, UK, US join hands to take on China, a Chinese scholar has said the formation of AUKUS will have a huge “psychological impact” on the remaining two Quad countries. “The US has taken advantage of AUKUS to further strengthen Australia’s political advantage in the US alliance network. Neither India nor Japan has such geopolitical competitiveness,” wrote Yang Xiyu, senior researcher at the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS).
Overall, though some in the mainstream media in the west have tried to downplay China’s strong condemnation of the new US-UK-Australia defence pact, there are visible signs of AUKUS having increased fears in Beijing that Biden is intensifying containment of China. Besides, quick and strongly-worded reactions from China to AUKUS further reflect concerns in Beijing that the Biden administration is “accelerating the confrontation with China and preparations for war that began with President Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ and were expanded on all fronts under Trump.” Finally, the question is not whether China’s interpretation that AUKUS is a reflection of the US returning to Cold War mentality is correct or wrong, as in the words of the British China expert Rana Mitter what is more important is to remember “the Achilles heels of Aukus may not be in security, but in a different area: trade.” No one is surprised China was quick to formally apply for CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) membership within twenty-four hours after the US, UK and Australia announced a new defence partnership.
And finally, though China has officially denied the country’s formal push for CPTPP membership is linked with AUKUS, but many a times such denials are perceived in diplomacy as deceitful. Replying to a question whether China was attempting to counter the potential influence of AUKUS, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson actually may have inadvertently admitted so. “You just tried to build a connection between the two issues,” Zhao Lijian said last Saturday. However, according to an ftchinese.com commentary, China’s application for CPTPP coming at this time is a mere coincidence. Behind the sudden move – a follow-up eight months after President Xi had first announced China may enter CPTPP – there are three factors which explain why China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao handed an official letter to the trade minister of New Zealand to join the multilateral trans-Pacific trade pact: international politics, geopolitics and Chinese nationalism. “More importantly, Beijing must show to the world that China will not stop opening to the outside world due to various external and internal disturbances,” the regular ftchinese.com Chinese columnist quipped.
