20 September 2021, NIICE Commentary 7345
Pramod Raj Sedhain
The tragic fall of Afghanistan into Taliban hands on the eve of American troops’ withdrawal could have tremendous consequences internally and externally. The abrupt eruption of the Afghan crisis may jeopardize regional stability, giving succor to the already thriving global terrorist networks with footholds in Central and South Asia.
The impact of Afghanistan’s collapse remains uncertain in terms of future political course, power-sharing deals, internal propositions, and brutal fighting or reconciliation among rival Afghan factions. Analysts must assess Afghanistan’s future in terms of political and security relations among regional and global powers. Observers have been inundated by a flood of media reports highlighting the diverse tragic impacts of the collapse of the Afghan government and speculating about the varied implications concerning regional security, humanitarian, diplomatic, regional security, terrorism, and counternarcotic issues.
Afghanistan has long been at fault line for crises and trafficking in the region. In the aftermath of recent events, regional powers competing to protect their interests are likely to leverage proxy militias and unleash a new wave of ethnic and sectarian tensions. All these will have larger security implications for regional countries in South and Central Asia as this has already triggered a wave of refugee migration to Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, including Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. This trend may also affect regional stability thus giving rise to religious fundamentalism, which may also make an unwelcome return of the specter of international terrorism.
On the other hand, the global jihadist network infliction in the bordering countries may impact regional and global terrorism threats. In the meantime, Iran may also face the same consequences of refugees and its security as neighboring Pakistan. The current state collapse is also likely to lead to a global crisis such as human trafficking, illegal migration, and narcotic drugs trafficking that would further aggravate the frustration of the jobless youths which then can also lead to social disorder, extremism, crime, and ethnic or sectarian tensions. Meanwhile, the Afghan crisis is not an optimistic sign for the U.S. national security which had for over two decades endeavored and sacrificed on Counterterrorism (CT) progress. If Afghanistan turns into a safe haven for extremist groups, foreign fighters, jihadist leadership, training and recruitment ground, and a terrorist breeding ground, it will affect regional and global security. The current crisis could also encourage other global jihadist networks especially its relationship with al-Qaeda – an alarming concern for the United States. The Taliban’s victory can also be al-Qaeda’s opportunity to foster its terrorism capabilities and global reach.
Al-Qaeda’s core reemergence in Afghanistan will have a direct terrorist threat to the U.S. as al-Qaeda sanctuary in Afghanistan will ultimately expand in Pakistan where they have hideouts and networks. The global terror networks have been thriving in state failure and chaos. Following the failure of Arab Spring in 2011 that rigged the wider instability in the Gulf, the Middle East to Africa had eventually paved the way for the terrorists’ wave in 2014 and the rise of the Islamic State from Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaeda is capable, adaptable, resilient, and a cohesive global jihadist network that has remained a strategic terrorism threat to the US. The al-Qaeda has long been immune from ungovernable land in chaos-hit counties such as Yemen, Syria, Somalia, to other war-torn nations. The Taliban’s ruling policy can also be debated since one cannot get to an immediate conclusion of their ruling strategy but can be analyzed based on their activities — whether they would run a moderate government by including all rival factions to form a responsible government or will adopt the same repressive strategy like the one during their previous term (1996 to 2001).
The terrorist outfit’s remaining leadership still needs to be decimated. The U.S. Intelligence and military intense surveillance mechanism have sharply reduced the global terrorism threats to make U.S. homeland safe from any coordinated terrorist attacks. The al-Qaeda jihadist fighters have been jubilant in Taliban Afghan victory. Their return is inevitable to fulfill their own ambitions. The growth of al-Qaeda will have an enormous strategic challenge to counter the global terrorist threat on the eve of the 9/11 anniversary. The US certainly has significant CT skills, resources, tactics, and airpower but without human intelligence on the ground to a specific location or target identification, no technical power can contain terrorism threats. Foreign fighters’ flow will lead to new challenges like the Syrian crisis.
Meanwhile, al-Qaeda’s core leadership has been unable to conduct 9/11 style terrorist attacks due to the U.S. global intense and relentless measures, effective counterterrorism operations, deep penetration of intelligence into al-Qaeda’s network and several of the al-Qaeda’s commanders taken off from battlefield especially from Afghan soil. The al-Qaeda, which had been unable to build its regional sphere due to constant U.S. monitoring, can establish a regional reach – i.e., revitalize the almost dead al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), connect their like-minded factions in Uzbekistan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar to other countries. If the Taliban repeats the same strategy as in the past, it will trigger regional turbulence from Afghanistan. The country will likely be a safe haven for extremist movements from making logistical points, recruitments, training, storing weapons, supporting or networking the global jihadist movements, among others.
Afghan politics, society and its economy are almost on the verge of collapse. Afghanistan’s ethnic, sectarian, extremist and divisions may lead to an explosive situation in the region and beyond. Taliban success can also send a message to wake the Islam militants and dominate the Wahhabi ideologies. Internal divisions within sectarian, ethnic, regional lines will make Afghanistan more vulnerable to explosive export of instability for the region. Like the al-Qaeda global terrorist network, its rival affiliate — Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) may also pose a terrorism threat from Afghan’s unpredicted future security landscape.
Since early 2015, the ISKP has been consistently focused on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border’s mountainous terrain to expand its caliphate into South Asia and Central Asia. Afghan-Pak border region has a worrisome nexus of jihadists, smugglers and profit-motivated criminal networks and they can come together at any time. ISKP’s lethality, intolerance of ultra-brutal ideologies, modus operandi, objectives, scale, and scope of threats are far-reaching threats to the entire region. The ISKP may attempt to re-establish itself in Afghanistan’s future landscape to exploit chaos and instability. If ISKP succeeds in advancing, it will see an escalated sectarian violence as well as potential terrorist threats to the U.S. national security interests across the region. ISKP’s terrorism capabilities have been significantly weakened by the U.S. counterterrorism operations by intelligence base war. Though the Special Operations Forces’ operation supported by local forces successfully eliminated its leadership, it, however, remains active on the ground. The ISKP, meanwhile, has continued to attack Shia ethnic Shia Hazara minority to incite a sectarian war. It can also exploit the situation and expand its bastions into Central Asian nationals by expanding in target minorities to incite sectarian war as well as high-profile attacks. Several militant groups remain hiding in restive mountainous areas of Pakistan which have deep-rooted ties with Afghan militants, which can revitalize their terrorism strength.
Pakistan-based militant groups can be enthusiastic about the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan, and they could follow suit to overthrow the Pakistani political system. Islamabad’s counterterrorism efforts and performance have long been treating America through deceives and a double standard mentality. Despite gradually losing their terrorist capabilities, the Pakistan-based militant groups are alive in complex hideout networks in the border regions. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and other radical militant groups, which have deep ties with al-Qaeda, could make a rapid rise on the capabilities in the wake of the Taliban’s success. Expanding extremist solidarity in Afghanistan will ultimately create problems for several Muslim nation’s stability and security. The South Asian region has been an important pillar of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, the spread of Afghan crisis over other counties could create an obstacle in the power competition with the Chinese Communist Party.
