12 May 2020, NIICE Commentary 4616
Dr. Shubhra Chaturvedi
As the world fights against the spread of COVID-19, there are different kinds of struggles emerging with the changing inter-state relations. While on the one hand, there is a spirit of co-existence, on the other there is a blame game followed by mutual mud-slinging. China has emerged as the subject for extrapolations postulating its future leadership prospects. In the midst of all the international backlash, there are suggestions that argue that this could be the change in the hegemonic placement of the world. The European Union Minister of Foreign Affairs, Joseph Borrell described the current trend of international relations as an opportunity to witness a display of political generosity and grapples for influence. This article points out that China is not a global leader and will rise at best as an economic giant. It discusses the current scenario and the political pot holes that China faces.
Global Response to China
The world today is in a peculiar situation where all the countries are attempting to utilize all the resources towards fighting the COVID-19. However, there has been an evident distaste particularly towards China in parts of Europe, America and even Australia. It is well accepted fact that the COVID-19 originated from China. But American President Donald Trump even went on to accuse China of concealing important information and hiding the initial outbreak of the virus. President Trump went on to criticise the World Health Organisation for supporting China in the cover up of the virus outbreak and cut down its funding as a display of his detest.
Similarly, on 4 May 2020, the Australian Daily Telegraph mentioned that a 15-page dossier put forward by the Five Eyes alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United States, United Kingdom) accuses China for its negligence in handling the COVID-19 which has caused severe crisis around the world. The document indicated that there was enough proof to verify the irresponsible behaviour of scientists in the Wuhan Laboratory in China. The US Secretary of State, Michael Pompeo even claimed to be in possession of evidence to prove that the virus had leaked from the Wuhan Laboratory due to the lapse in security measures. The lab had been studying the possibility of the virus being transmitted from bats to mammals. The Wuhan Lab is now the subject of a global blame game as there are investigations being done to conclude if the pandemic was a result of contact with an infected animal or due to the negligence of the lab proceedings.
While the concerns around the world remains, the Chinese response to all these allegations have been firm. China denied the American allegations of hiding the outbreak and in turn blamed the US for causing fear and panic instead of leading in times of crisis. It continues to try and rise as a responsible power by sending testing kits, masks and has been living up to its image of being the centre of manufacturing hub. Europe and America have been going back and forth on the Chinese management of the crisis weighing the economic consequences. But amidst all these China has found its allies.
China released a list of 21 countries and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), thanking them for their support during the crisis. Iran emerged as a big ally of China as it was reported that the Iranian Mahan Airlines flew 157 times to China in February and March. The Airline apparently flew to Wuhan too, to evacuate Iranian students and also claimed to be carrying humanitarian assistance for China, which was unexpected as Iran itself was facing shortage of masks, medicines and sanitisers. However, it must be noted that Iran emerged as the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Middle East. The Government of Pakistan stood by China and praised the them for handing the situation efficiently. It did not even evacuate its nationals from Wuhan. In return, China supplied medical equipments to Pakistan on priority to fight the virus. As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Pakistan increased, China supplied additional medical supplies. In fact, the Chinese spokesperson at the Ministry of External Affairs Lijian Zhao stated of taking care of Pakistanis just as the Chinese citizens. There have been words of appreciation and empathy from other countries as well. Yet, it seems difficult for China to emerge as the world leader overtaking the United States.
Chinese Miscalculation
Due to the negligence of handing the COVID-19 in the initial stage, the United States appeared to have lost its image and thus has begun speculations around the world about the emergence of China as the world leader. While the economic development of China impresses many, there is severe trust deficit on its side. The economic depression can be overcome by the mechanism of globalization and a pre-requisite to it is mutual trust. Europe, the US and India do not see China as a trustable partner as China lacks transparency in its policies, has different political ideologies with historical dissimilarities. India has time and again expressed its distrust about the Chinese intentions on the issues of border and weapon modernization. They have different stand on nuclear policies, climate change, issues related to India’s entry into the UN Security Council, resolving North Korean crisis, UN sanctions and others. The global governance mechanism should ideally bring all the actors to the table and prevent conflicts, but China has often taken the alternate routes. In addition, there is strong sentiment against China in Europe and the US for ‘leaking the virus’.
Moreover, China supplied sub-standard medical equipment during the COVID-19 to the European countries that has irked them. Many countries including the US, Spain, Turkey and Netherlands rejected the testing kits and masks sent by China. In addition to that, China finding allies in states like Pakistan, Iran and North Korea places China in a susceptible prism.
Similar is the situation in China’s neighbourhood in East Asia and South East Asia. Much like the game of Chinese whisper, the Chinese actions and policies have no consistency. Thus, in these scenarios, it seems highly unlikely that China will emerge as a leader. In the post-COVID-19 scenario, people are even doubtful whether China will remain as the world’s manufacturing hub as Japan, the US and others are thinking of shifting their investments from China to India and South East Asia.
