26 July 2020, NIICE Commentary 5663
Dr. Hoimonti Barua
Human security threats emanating from non-traditional security issues are one of the greatest existential problems for Bangladesh. Chronicled statistics promulgates Bangladesh as one of the most disaster susceptible regions in the world, exposed to dire ramifications brought by both natural and human-induced disasters; and oftentimes referred as the ‘ground zero for climate change’. In either ways the intensity of the manifold ‘loss and damage’ have profound impacts on human security. Security as a matter of concern for humankind and nation-states has been persistently essential. In fact, the conclusion of the Cold War (1985-1991) did not assuage armed conflicts, rather it witnessed increasing complexities within nation-states, non-traditional in nature, turning the world to an exceedingly endangered habitat for many. Such crisis are complex, prompting myriad human vulnerabilities.
Human security, often comprehended as Non-Traditional Security (NTS) has consequential implications in South Asia, vis-à-vis Bangladesh. The circumstances of human security are indigent and precarious here; hence it is getting increasing prominence. In spite of their achievements in various Millennium Developments Goals, impediments in human security ensuing from NTS continue to challenge Bangladesh. The South Asian Voice 2019 reported Bangladesh to be the most endangered countries due to climate change; 7th most gravely hit nations in the world; and 25th least ready country in terms of disaster preparedness, as stated in Notre-Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND Gain) Index, 2017.
Bangladesh is a small, deltaic region, dominated by floodplains with low-lying coastal terrain. The region is prone to acute weather episodes due to its geo-physical placement, topography and human induced climate change risks posing threats to its continuance. Climate change and environmental degradation are the root cause of various other societal irritants in Bangladesh.
Climate Change as a Human Security Threat
Traditionally, security notions especially ‘national security’ has been explicated as the safeguarding of territory via military means. It is conformed within the orthodox framework, placing ‘nation-state’ and its military strengths at the cynosure of political pursuits. In Bangladesh, neo-realist paradigms have dominated the security scholarships overlooking individual security. However, in the recent decades wide-ranging non-traditional forms of hazards that include but are not limited to crises related to environmental degradation, climate change, natural disasters, energy depletion, migration etc., have emerged as greater risks to the country. These issues elicited the formation of an alternative archetype of security delineation viz. non-traditional security threats by not prioritising on traditional security notions expounded on geo-political and geo-strategic aspects of nation-states. Rather, it encompasses affairs concomitant to human necessities where socio-economic survival and subsistence are at the core. Security threats for Bangladesh interestingly are more from non-military aspects. It has been acknowledged by experts that NTS will have perilous implications in future therefore the priority must be to prepare for the same. The average increase of temperature seemingly suggests the global warming trend from the 1990s, but the upward trend of rising temperature literally unfurled since the 1980s onwards; only, the realisation of its magnitude took time.
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (Temperature Anomaly)
The graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures. Nineteen of the 20 warmest years all have occurred since 2001, with an exception in 1998. In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in collaboration with UNDP concluded the probability of more than 95 percent human role responsible for global warming over the past five decades. During the 20th century the average global temperature increased by 0.8 percent over land and by 0.5 percent at sea. It has been deduced that increasing carbon footprints in all probability will buttress demographic, socio-economic and environmental tensities already encountered by Bangladesh. The perils are multifarious that directly-indirectly makes people vulnerable following its consequences on a region.
Risks and Consequences of Climate Change in Bangladesh
A number of factors are involved in human induced impacts from climate change. First, it has led to excessive heating of the earth causing increased thermal expansion, glacial melts, and loss of primary ice-sheets of the Himalayas. Two large rivers namely the Ganges and Brahmaputra receives water from the Himalayas flowing through the country from north to south emptying in the Bay of Bengal. Much of the lands in Bangladesh are low lying and the rivers banks often break. Heavy rains swell the two main river systems- that flow through India and Bangladesh causing floods. Second, rising sea-levels has been exhilarating in the recent years. Overflowing sea waters will pose unrecoverable losses in many countries including Bangladesh. Other significant endangerments are extreme weather patterns, excessive rainfall, droughts, storm surges, cyclones, coastal flooding etc.
The effects of climate change have interrelated consequential socio-economic and cultural implications on Bangladesh. Human security is regulated by multiple factors, interconnecting it to other factors. For instance, floods render people homeless, causes food insecurity, water insecurity, loss of property and agricultural land and loss of income opportunities. Cyclones and flooding of the coastal areas increases soil salinity, damages agricultural land and availability of drinking water. It effects the ecosystem, will further impair the Sundarbans, destroy soil quality, increase soil erosion, and break river banks. Alarmingly, bank erosion singularly has decimated millions of lives or destroyed shelters permanently causing large-scale migration. At least 2,270 hectares (approx.) of land was lost in 2018 by bank erosion. Most of these factors causing ‘loss and damage’ leads to internal migration influx in the urban areas of Bangladesh. An estimated 2000 people arrive Dhaka megacity everyday which doubles during the monsoon. Such influx has led to mushrooming urban-slum growth in Dhaka that offers sub-standard living conditions to the migrants. Concurrently leading to excess population, disproportionate urbanisation, minimum civic facilities, pollution so forth. Climate change will also affect the agro-economy of the country. The economy of Bangladesh is agriculture based whereby almost two-third of the population is directly-indirectly dependent on agricultural labor. Agriculture is a climate responsive sector. It reacts to altered temperatures, rainfall pattern, drought and flood that govern the crop yield. Therefore, irregular crop yield is likely to give rise to food insecurity in future.
Conclusion
Climate change is no more an anticipated event. Rising sea level is an old concern for Bangladesh, and it was predicted years ago that the country would be one of the first victims of submergence. Research has revealed that sea-level could swell by 85 to 140 cm by year 2100; nearly double the previous estimates posing real danger for its 160 million people. Even a 1-meter rise would engulf 18 percent of the country’s land, submerge low coastal areas, and destroy at least 27 million people. While the impacts deteriorate, security risks for Bangladesh will undergo a series of cross-cutting circumstances. All these factors in actuality are building blocks of national security that help to evaluate the seriousness of NTS variables of a country, vis-à-vis Bangladesh. Bangladesh has done fairly well in disaster management and preparedness but climate change is not to be dealt with in solitary, especially when their contribution to global emission is negligible while its vulnerabilities are at a maximum. Therefore, it calls for the participation of all stakeholders for the sake of saving humanity and human civilization.
