Watch it on the NIICE Nepal YouTube channel

EVENT REPORT

A webinar was hosted by the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE) to discuss “Modi’s Visit to the US: Deepening Partnership amidst Geopolitical Challenges” featuring Prof. Sumit Ganguly (Indiana University, US), Dr. Amit Gupta (Forum of Federations, Canada) and Dr. Stuti Banerjee (Indian Council for World Affairs, New Delhi).

The webinar on Prime Minister Modi's visit to the United States, moderated by Dr. Monish Tourangbam, brought together a panel of distinguished experts. This gathering aimed to dissect the intricacies of the visit, focusing on the significance of the event, the future trajectory of US-India relations, and the potential global and regional impact. Dr. Pramod Jaiswal set the stage, introducing the moderator and esteemed panelists, paving the way for an insightful discussion.

Professor Sumit Ganguly, commencing the conference, expressed gratitude for its timely organization and outlined three pivotal points for discussion: the significance of Modi's visit, the future trajectory of US-India relations, and their impact on regional and global politics. Highlighting the significance of Modi's visit, Professor Ganguly moved beyond formalities, emphasizing potential outcomes such as the sale of $3 billion worth of Reaper drones and the technology transfer for G414 engines. These developments could bolster India's defense capabilities and fortify the Indo-US relationship. However, he stressed that India's commitment and decision-making would be instrumental in shaping the nature of this relationship. He also urged India to decide between a transactional or a strategic partnership with the US, underlining the uncertainties of Russia's role in supplying weaponry due to its shrunken state. Professor Ganguly underlined that India must get over its fears from the Cold War era and accept the new world political order. He contended that India's decisions, rather than the US government's present position, will determine the course of US-India relations in the future. Resolving past apprehensions and concerns, Professor Ganguly promoted establishing a durable alliance with the United States. In terms of the impact on regional and global politics, he stressed that the relationship's nature, post-Modi's visit, would be pivotal and urged Indian diplomacy to address any Cold War nostalgia in the US regarding Pakistan and highlighted the benefits of a stable US-India partnership for the entire region.

The second speaker was Dr. Stuti Banerjee and she started by expressing gratitude for the opportunity and clarifying that her opinions did not necessarily reflect those of the Indian Council of World Affairs. She outlined the significance of Modi's visit as part of a series of interactions, showcasing the close strategic partnership between India and the US. Dr. Banerjee identified challenges faced by both nations, emphasizing India's need to navigate relations with the US and Russia amid challenges like the conflict in Ukraine. She discussed the growing US-China competition and its impact on India's relations with both nations, emphasizing that the India-US relationship is independent of India's relations with China. Key areas of significance included India's role as the president of the G20 and chair of the SCO, emphasizing convergence with the US on reforming multilateralism and enhancing connectivity. The growing convergence in the Indo-Pacific region, initiatives like the Quad and I2U2, and India's aspirations as an aspirational power were highlighted by Dr. Banerjee.

Dr. Amit Gupta was the third speaker and he provided a comprehensive synthesis, outlining six distinct dimensions of the India-US relationship. He emphasized challenges within military and government spheres, citing the transactional nature of American foreign policy and urging India to seek gestures of affection from the US. Dr. Gupta highlighted the need for clarity in India's foreign policy goals, criticizing the lack of a clear response regarding India's expectations from the US. He discussed global responses to the Ukraine crisis, questioned the effectiveness of US attempts to influence India's stance, and emphasized the shift of economic power to Asia. In his concluding remarks, Professor Gupta urged India to focus on building relationships that matter and demand respect from the US. He encouraged a pragmatic approach, suggesting India should offer tangible benefits to the US in return for greater engagement, and called for a reconsideration of India's historical approach of aligning with major powers.

Dr. Monish Tourangbam skilfully navigated the discussion, addressing questions from the chat and seeking further insights from the panelists. Professor Ganguly responded, highlighting historical agreements like the 2008 US-India nuclear deal while acknowledging areas of disagreement. Dr. Banerjee addressed concerns related to Russia's impact on bilateral relations, emphasizing the importance of historical context and diversification of defense needs. Dr. Gupta shared insights from his recent article on why India won't break with Russia, criticizing India's lack of imagination in negotiations. He addressed technology transfer issues, advocating for stronger ties with the US, and stressed the importance of bilateral trade.

As the webinar progressed, the discussions delved deeper into critical topics shaping the US-India relationship. Dr. Monish Tourangbam hinted at exploring the alignment between India's bilateral relationship with the US and its role in multilateral organizations. This raised the question of potential dissonance or integration between the two approaches. Dr. Monish Tourangbam expressed gratitude to Dr. Gupta and redirected the discussion to Professor Ganguly. He emphasized the need for a response to Professor Ganguly's points on India's role in the changing geopolitical landscape. Specifically, he sought Professor Ganguly's views on the perception that the ball is not solely in India's court, as suggested by Dr. Gupta's earlier presentation. Dr. Tourangbam also requested a response to Dr. Gupta's remarks on technology transfer issues, Russia's role in India-U.S. relations, and the reference to Russia as a stabilizing force.

Professor Ganguly acknowledged his agreement with Dr. Amit on several points but disagreed with the notion that the U.S. has not shown affection for India. He cited the historic 2008 U.S.-India civilian nuclear agreement, which allowed India to escape NPT constraints. However, he criticized India's lack of reciprocity, highlighting the passing of a restrictive law on American nuclear investment. Prof. Ganguly also questioned India's anti-American voting patterns in the UN Security Council. Regarding Russia, he disputed the idea of Russia as a great power, emphasizing its economic decline and dependence on selling resources. He deemed the belief in Russia as a bulwark against China a fantasy.

Dr. Monish Tourangbam then invited Dr. Banerjee to comment on Russia's impact on bilateral relations and address questions from the chat, particularly on Antarctica cooperation and concerns about domestic politics affecting Modi's visit to the U.S. Dr. Banerjee clarified the focus on the Arctic, not Antarctica, and explained India's domestic bill regarding Antarctica, aiming to preserve its status as a global common. Regarding Russia, she emphasized its importance in India's historical context and diversification of defense needs. Dr. Banerjee highlighted Russia's role in the Arctic due to its significant coastline. On domestic politics, she acknowledged concerns raised by U.S. policymakers but downplayed their impact on bilateral dialogue.

Dr. Monish Tourangbam then turned to Dr. Gupta for his counter comments, seeking insights on the debate around de-risking vs. decoupling in U.S.-China relations, referencing Blinken's visit to China. Dr. Gupta shared insights from his recent article on why India won't break with Russia, criticizing India's lack of imagination in negotiations. He addressed technology transfer issues, advocating for stronger ties with the U.S. He questioned the focus on Australia and New Zealand in American policy, emphasizing India's need to engage with China economically. Dr. Gupta stressed the importance of bilateral trade and the impracticality of decoupling from China due to India's economic dependence on Chinese goods.

Dr. Monish Tourangbam then thanked the panelists for a candid discussion and suggested a follow-up after Modi's visit to reassess the geopolitical landscape. As the webinar drew to a close, the collective insights from the panellists provided a comprehensive overview of the complex dynamics shaping US-India relations. The multifaceted nature of the discussions, ranging from defense and geopolitics to technology and regional alliances, underscored the depth of the challenges and opportunities facing the two nations. The ball is now in the court of policymakers, diplomats, and leaders to translate these nuanced perspectives into actionable strategies that will steer the trajectory of US-India relations in an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape. The webinar served as a valuable platform for dialogue and reflection, offering a roadmap for navigating the complexities of contemporary geopolitics with a focus on fostering a strong, meaningful, and mutually beneficial partnership between India and the United States.

Prepared by Shrabana Kundu, NIICE Intern