International Regime Complex for Climate Change
Watch it on NIICE Nepal Youtube Channel
Event Report
The webinar was held by NIICE, Nepal on the topic of “International Regime Complex for Climate Change,” presented by Professor Robert O. Keohane from Princeton University. Before discussing the politics of climate change in this webinar, he introduces the devastating repercussions we may face if the situation is not duly addressed. Prof. Keohane points to not only the disastrous environmental and ecologically effects of global warming but also the massive socio-economic disruptions and massive migrations of populations. He notes that the conversation concerning climate change has a negative and positive points from 10 years ago, the negative being that climate change is even worse than previously imagined while the positive is that due to technological advancements, there is the possibility to have a zero-carbon emission economy.
The international regime is a set of rules and institutions agreed by governments that shape expectations and norms of behaviour for states. One such example is the international trade regime. Prof. Keohane explains that the international regime complex means that it is more fragmented and lacks a coherent centralized regime with a set of consistent arrangements which reinforce one another. In the case of climate change, though there are conventions and principles, many are informal and not legalized or binding on governments. He also notes that the attempts made at Kyoto for a binding coherent regime was a failure.
Prof. Keohane notes that the Paris Agreement is a progressive step towards an international regime. World leaders took to climate change as a serious issue and pushed for an accord. This is viewed as the first crucial step toward change. The second was to make it a voluntary accord. Prof. Keohane notes that Kyoto lacked these two features. For an agreement to be internationally binding it should have two virtues, namely, it has to be discretionary and vague. Discretion allows countries to formulate a nationally determined plan suitable for them which is serious about climate change. The feature of vagueness means that the agreement does not specify how the country should act but a scientific body guides the country about carbon emissions and such. Such features make it a vision of cooperation among countries but not a plan to address climate change. Though a diplomatic move taking into consideration the political circumstance, this leads to governments being under the burden of ironing out details and being responsible for the implementation of concrete policies at the national level.
Prof. Keohane answers that the next step to strengthen the international regime complex is to build upon the Paris Agreement and bring into place a set of policies which are developed and implemented by major countries. To do this, he states that countries first have to progressively tighten their nationally determined contributions. Secondly, measures have to be taken to implement them which requires greater government capacity in most countries. Moreover, there needs to be an aid for poorer countries in this process. Prof. Keohane also gives examples of how the new administration of the United States government is highly committed to climate change, how firms like Blackrock are pushing other firms to adopt carbon change policies and how countries like Canada and Australia have adopted climate languages as well as the UK having climate leaders. He notes that these are serious efforts in the right direction after a long time.
In the case of the implications of US-China geopolitical competition for the international regional complex, Prof. Keohane states that there will no doubt be discord and disagreement between the two nations as they have conflicting interests. What is important in the climate discussion is to make sure that the conflict is not pervasive, where it might prevent cooperation and hinder any global efforts to solve this issue. He uses the joint effort of America and the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War to eradicate smallpox as a perfect example of how countries can work together for the greater good. Prof. Keohane also brings India into the discussion and mentions that under Modi’s leadership, India is increasingly becoming a country which has a self-interest ineffective climate change policies and how India’s efforts also have a relationship with the domestic climate policies of the US. Taking into consideration China’s comparative economic advantage, Prof. Keohane says China has been effective and efficient in establishing a renewable energy industry and combating climate change. However, there are certain liabilities as well which cannot be ignored.
Prof. Keohane answers the impact of Covid-19 and how it has contributed to climate. Though a firm conclusion has not yet been reached, what was seen in 2020 was a reduction in climate emissions. However, this can only be considered a short-term phenomenon. What is most important is the impact of Covid on ongoing emissions. It seems that since Covid struck and many people had to resort to virtual platforms to conduct work, a significant reduction in carbon emission was witnessed, and this can be seen as a positive impact on individual intensive carbon emission practices, for example, such as air travel will be reduced.
Finally, Prof. Keohane explains how successful the 2030 UN Agenda to control climate change was. He reiterates that the agenda is a vision and a bulk of the responsibility lay upon national governments. What the UN can do to aid governments is create the right atmosphere to encourage nations to work towards climate change policies.
Prepared by Yumna Azeez, Intern at NIICE.