1 July 2025, NIICE Commentary 11395
Ishaan Banga
Backdrop
The US’s Typhoon missile launchers, which can fire missiles up to thousands of kilometres, will stay in the Philippines for now. The objective of the move is to strengthen the military capability of the Philippines, increase the interoperability in the nation, with a key focus on maintaining regional security. The move has drawn sharp criticisms from China, the neighbour of the Philippines, which has called on the Philippines to create regional tensions. The move will bolster the Philippines’ defence system, in light of the increasing aggression of China in the South China Sea. The missile system with a range of 500 km poses a direct threat to China’s land and its military installations in the South China Sea.
US-Philippines relations
The countries have maintained a relationship that encompasses a bilateral security alliance, military cooperation and economic interest. The Philippines played an important role in the Joe Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, receiving the highest military assistance and training in the region. This stems from its strategic position in the South China Sea, allowing it to counter Chinese expansionism at sea. Historically, in the Mutual Defence Treaty (“MDT”) of 1951, both states committed to defending each other in an armed attack.
Cuban missile crisis: modern parallels in the Philippines
Historical context
In 1962, a US spy plane discovered nuclear missile systems being developed by the USSR in its neighbouring Cuba, which brought the warheads directly in the footsteps of the US. US President John F. Kennedy demanded the removal of the missile system and put a naval blockade of ships near Cuba to prevent USSR ships from providing military supplies. In the passing of the 13 days of the crisis, when both superpowers agreed on a resolution, the world was tense about the possibility of a nuclear war.
The genesis of the conflict lay in Cuban President Fidel Castro’s increasing pro-USSR stance, with increasing support and assistance from the leader of the USSR, Nikita Khruschev. Cuba, which was 90 km away from the US, posed a threat of a communist state in the US’s backyard.
Historical parallels of the tensions in the Philippines with the Cuban Missile Crisis
After the 1959 Revolution in Cuba, which brought Castro to power, the US was alarmed by communist influence in the Western hemisphere. The deployment of the missile system in the Philippines is for the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China in Southeast Asia, where the US is using the Philippines to pose a threat to the Chinese expansion.
The USSR had been constructing nuclear missiles in Cuba to pose a threat to the US. In retaliation, the US had warned of the consequences and imposed a naval blockade to disallow the USSR ships from transporting the materials for warheads. By taking the situation to a military confrontation, Kennedy had risked a nuclear war. Similarly, the diplomatic fallout in the Philippines and China comes amidst the deployment of the US-backed Typhoon missile system, which has the ability to directly attack China.
Dissimilarities in the tensions between the Philippines and China to the Cuban missile crisis
Cuba became a client state of the USSR, having little independent decision-making power of its own. Integration happened in the economy and military, for the US threat required military support. However, in the present globalised world, relations in the US, China, and the Philippines are dictated by economic relations with each other. China accounts for 20% of the Philippines' foreign trade and is also a major source of foreign direct investment. Even the US and China are the top export markets for each other. The trade relations have brought mutually beneficial relations to the nations, and neither would want to risk the economic interests.
Nikita Khrushchev had entered into an agreement with Fidel Castro to deploy nuclear missiles as a defence from a future invasion attempt by the US. Later, a US spy plane was shot dead over Cuba, which provoked the US to prepare for a direct war. The world was this close to a nuclear war. However, the Typhoon missile system is a mid-range missile system and not a nuclear warhead. China, despite having a superior missile and nuclear build, is opposing the missile system of the Philippines for strategic reasons, to avoid US dominance in the Indo-Pacific and maintain its regional influence.
The Cuban crisis was a result of the urge of the superpowers to increase their sphere of influence in different parts of the world and show their dominance. However, the world is now heading to a multipolar world order. Although the US and China have the strength to be called superpowers, the world has many middle and regional powers, in India, Japan, Brazil, Australia, etc.
India’s stand in the conflict
Although India has not given a formal diplomatic stance, it will have an important role to play as a strategic power in the Indo-Pacific. Indo-Pacific is important, as it houses key maritime routes connecting different areas of the world. Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea threatens a rule-based Indo-Pacific. India has countered Chinese influence by the QUAD alliance with the US, Japan and Australia for the Indo-Pacific. In light of the meeting of the India-Philippines Joint Defence Cooperation Committee last year, and India’s broader Act East policy to collaborate with ASEAN nations, which includes the Philippines. The Philippines might tilt towards India if the conflict escalates. Although India would avoid a direct confrontation with China to preserve its economic relations, and would press for a diplomatic solution.
Modern Cuban Missile Crisis or Cold War 2.0?
The dissimilarities in the Philippines’ situation with the Cuban crisis make it less of a modern parallel to the historical event. However, it hints at a rivalry between the US and China. Leaning towards Cold War 2.0, where proxy wars shall occur instead of a direct war.
China is a more powerful rival than the USSR, where the USSR could only reach 60 per cent of the US’s GDP; however, China is projected to overtake the US by the next decade. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to counter Western influence on its neighbour, has soured the relations between the US and Russia, bringing China and Russia together. Although the world would not see an ideological conflict, as in the Cold War, the US was advocating a capitalist liberal system while the USSR proposed an authoritarian communist world order. However, the world might be divided into the liberal bloc of the US and the autocratic order of Russia and China. Considering the similarities in the present situation with the Cold War, it will be misleading to believe that the meeting of Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru indicates to lessening of tensions.
Ishaan Banga is a 4th-year student from National Law University, Jodhpur, India.
