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Event Report

This webinar was on Abe’s Security Policy and Implications for South Asia. In this webinar, Robert Dujarric, Co-Director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies began his talk by referencing the historical account of ties between Japan and South Asia. He mentioned that Japan did not have any essential ties with South Asia in the past and remained almost secluded until this seclusion was broken by western imperialism. However, he explained that certain events in recent decades had improved the ties between Japan and South Asia: A considerable number of migrants are migrating to Japan; Japan is showing interest in the South Asian production base and the market as an alternative to China; The South Asian region is interested in Japanese investments.

He also explained that India’s strategic interest in cooperating with Japan to combat the Chinese threat has led to a more excellent dialogue between Japan and India. He explained the reasons for comparatively less spending in Japan in defense and security sectors and stated Japanese unwillingness to indulge in wars. He further explained Abe's role in security policy and its strategic implications.

On the other hand, he spoke about Japan’s promising nature on the economic side. In reply to the question on how Japan is going to tackle its security issues concerning North Korea’s missiles, he explained that the United States is the primary negotiating partner of North Korea in the issue, and Japan is not taking any highly significant role. It depends on US support in case of a possible attack from North Korea against Japan. On the issue of the Spratly Islands dispute in the South China Sea, he said that the Japanese perspective is that China has been aggressive and did not respect international laws and norms. Nevertheless, Japan will not get indulged in a conflict in the South China Sea and leaves the issue to the US. In reply to the possibility of cooperation between Japan, India, and the US to combat the Chinese project BRI, he said that the Japanese interest in developing infrastructure in South Asia is not only motivated to counter China but also to develop communication in South Asia, which will help Chinese companies to invest in the region. About the importance of quadrilateral security dialogue in the Japanese strategy to counter China in the South China Sea and the role of Japan in the future of the Quad, he asserted that the Japanese public is not interested in this, and Japan is strategically not inclined towards power projection. He said China is the main threat that brings the powers of Quad on the same page. The umbrella of the US in terms of national security has helped Japan to prove itself as a peaceful trading nation, which helped it to develop its economy. According to him. In his assumption, the Japanese concern for Japan in Nepal is primarily the Chinese involvement in Nepal. According to him, the changes under Abe in Japan’s security strategy are not radical but evolutionary. He further explained the changes in Japanese security strategy in the Abe era. Firstly, Japan's defense spending has increased, although slightly. Secondly, Japan has passed laws to make it easier for Japan to take part in military actions in case Japan’s vital national interests are threatened, even though Japan itself is not directly attacked. However, Abe’s initiative to negotiate in the TPP without the United States is different from Japan’s tradition. He further mentioned that Abe’s belief that he could strike a deal with Russia regarding the Four Islands made him harsher on North Korea and China and soft on Russia.

Moreover, to unravel the reasons for Abe being in power for so long, he said that the lack of a strong opposition has primarily helped Abe to remain in power for so long. He said that Japan would likely not be involved in ASEAN to resolve the South China Sea disputes. In reply to how Japan views South Asian countries or what policies it has towards South Asian countries, he explained that the view of Japan depends on the specific country; for example, Japan is interested in the textile industry of Bangladesh, Japan is mainly concerned about the Chinese inroads in Sri Lanka, Japan views India as a potential ally against China. They view Nepal also through their concern towards China. He further explained that although Japan is capable of developing nuclear weapons, it is unlikely to develop nuclear weapons for Japan due to the popular opinion of the country against nuclear weapons and several strategic concerns. He explained the possible impact of the US Presidential election on US-Japan relations.

Prepared by Adrija Maity, Intern at NIICE, Nepal