14 November 2024, NIICE Commentary 9719
Pritam Sarbabidya
The recent announcement of the India-China patrolling agreement, first by the Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on October 21, 2024, was later confirmed and reiterated by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The agreement aimed at normalizing the Indo-China border disputes, which have persisted since the deadly Galwan clash in 2020, marks a potentially significant moment in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. The pact is seen as a very ‘positive’ development in a frozen atmosphere due to the long-standing nature of the conflict. This article delves into certain questions that loom over the agreement’s compliance.
An Early Observation
India and China have a long history of border disputes specifically along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) which serves as an unmarked and ambiguous boundary between the two nations. Tensions have fermented since the 1962 Sino-Indian war, with both countries occasionally clashing over border incursions and differing interpretations of the LAC. The ‘fluctuating’ graph in terms of the intensity of the conflicts exemplifies the Chinese strategy of ‘Salami Slicing’ that uses a series of small lucrative actions to produce a significant impact without doing it all once at a time. However, the situation escalated dramatically in the episode of Galwan during the early months of COVID-19, June 2020.
Subsequently, what followed next was a ‘frosted’ line of communication between the two parties, with diplomatic confrontation, prominent military presence on both sides along the borders, and at the same time a constant sense of ‘mistrust’. Despite numerous rounds of military and commander-level talks, a prominent solution to the long-standing dispute has been difficult to track down.
What is the Deal about?
Talking about the agreement, is said to be directed towards ‘de-escalation’ in a region where both countries have stationed tens of thousands of troops, and also eversion to the patrolling norms 2020. This deal also can be seen positively for claiming ease of tension in conflicting checkpoints namely the ‘Depsang’ plains and ‘Demchok’. The official white paper or written details have not yet been revealed by any of the sides, and its media reports and certain sources from the government have been flickering out in the discourse.
What does this mean for India?
For India, the agreement came at an interesting time, as the announcement was made a day before PM Narendra Modi’s official visit to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs, also officially confirmed the bilateral meeting between the Indian PM and Chinese President Xi Jinping, after four and half years. Though both the leaders have met several times in previous years, however, those were ‘informal’ meetings were like sharing gestures. This initiative of easing tension at the border can be seen as the first step towards normalizing frozen ties.
‘Recognition’ in international relations holds a very significant value, entities in the global order struggle to get recognized by other states or players which would elevate their presence in this anarchic international system. The successful execution of the agreement will add more stars to India’s diplomatic hat. When countries around the world are having conflicts on the issue of territorial integrity, and border demarcation, India on the other hand is using its proactive diplomacy. Strategic negotiation will be successful in achieving its well-established objectives. Also, such agreements of normalization ensure a line of communication between political leaders which also sheds a positive light on the status of the relationships.
Trust Deficit? What Can Be Expected in the Road Ahead?
‘Trust’ is one of the building blocks of any relationship, same applies in the domain of international relations. In the India-China relationship, the notion of ‘trust’ is the most important element to pursue a stable mutual relationship. The importance of the same can be highlighted in the statement of Indian Army Chief, General Upendra Dwivedi, when he mentioned “As of now, we are trying to restore the trust …” . There is a need for reassurance, as historical anecdotes have shown different pictures after any try effort to establish a stable relation. For instance, just after a year of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to India, the world observed the violent Galwan Clash.
Further, China’s growing infrastructural development near the Indian border remains a major source of concern for New Delhi. Earlier in the last month, reports of a newly constructed 20 km long Chinese heliport near the sensitive region of Arunachal Pradesh became a point of discussion among Indian strategic thinkers and security experts. Subsequently, the growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean remains a point of notice for India, even if not concerned with the counter presence of India’s proactive navy and intelligence in the region.
Considering the developments, there is a need for foresighted measures in elevating its comparative advantage over China, diversifying India’s economy from China, continuing the development of infrastructure, and building military capabilities without antagonizing China, as the realities do exemplify the Power-asymmetry between China and India, whether it be economy or military might.
Fig.1 Heliport along the banks of Gongrigabu Qu River (NDTV, Maxar Tech)
In conclusion, the declared agreement for normalizing the Indo-China border disputes marks a hopeful moment, but it must be viewed cautiously. Yes, it comes with a ‘hope’ as it is expected to offer India a chance to stabilize its border and focus on other pressing issues, at the same time China’s history of violating agreements calls for a strategic, cautious approach. The relationship needs a few positive elements which can also be summarized from the initial remarks of PM Narendra Modi, during his bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Kazan where he highlighted the importance of ‘3Ms or ‘Three mutuals’ namely, Mutual Trust, Mutual Respect and Mutual Sensitivity in navigating the relationship further.
The road ahead is packed with difficulties, however, with the right balance of proactive diplomacy, and active military preparedness, India can navigate this complex relationship while safeguarding its national interests and securing strategic autonomy.
Pritam Sarbabidya is pursuing a Master of Arts in Politics and International Relations at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University, India. His Area of interest includes India’s Foreign Policy, Defence and Security Studies, Intelligence and Strategic Warfare.
