4 November 2024, NIICE Commentary 9709
Punsara Amarasinghe
Even if its form is military, war is always a political struggle, whose behaviour is deeply imbued with politics, which reminds us of Clausewitz’s famous adage “War is a continuity of politics by other means. The tense situation in the Middle East erupted after the 7th of October carnage perpetrated by Hamas in Israel seems to have reached its worst stage now as the conflict is transforming into a regional fiasco. Militarily Israeli Defence Forces are ahead of the curve as they successfully strike its foes without even giving them a pause to breathe and the humiliating defeats suffered by Hamas, Hizbullah and the Iranian regime unveil how vulnerable they are before the techno-military sophistication of Israeli defence, which has been axiomatic from the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh to Yaheya Sinwar.
The situation standing in favour of Tel Aviv has augmented the Iranian proxy strategy to attack the Israelis and their assets around the world, which will involve manipulating the Muslims outside the Middle East to unleash antipathy and terror against the Jews. Asymmetrical warfare has been a part and parcel feature in the strategy adopted by IRGC since its inception, therefore the avowed ambition of Teheran in weakening Israeli interests outside Tel Aviv is a genuine concern for Israel. The recently reported security threat in Arugam Bay, Sri Lanka seems to be a bizarre plot, which eventually connects with the real war that encompasses the whole Middle East far away from the island nation in the Indian Ocean.
Arugam Bay in Sri Lanka is world-renowned for its friendly and safe waters creating an ideal atmosphere for surfing and it attracts tourists by giving solace to the debt-ridden economy of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has become relatively a new tourist attraction to Israelis for the past few years as many Israeli tourists adore the sandy beaches and pristine beauty of the island, which is a conspicuous appeal to IDF soldiers looking for change to get rid of the constant waves of terror they encounter every day in the Middle East. According to Sri Lankan Tourism Development Authority, a total of 19,517 out of the total 1,487,303 tourists arrived last year were Israelis. But, Sri Lanka’s relations with Israel is historically haphazard one subjected to momentary changes without a centralized policy.
The benign ethos vociferated by the leaders in the Non-Aligned movement influenced Sri Lankan Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike to choose the populist stance by cutting ties with the State of Israel, which was reversed by her successor J.R Jayewardene when he opened the Israeli interest section attached to the US Embassy in Colombo. His defence minister Mr. Lalith Athulathmudali was a lecturer who worked for Hebrew University in Jerusalem and played a key role in obtaining Israeli support in thwarting the Tamil rebels in the Northern part of the island. Yet Colombo’s tilt towards Israel remained deeply fragile succumbing to influence stemming from the Arab states as the larger number of Sri Lankan employees work in the Middle East adding the prime foreign revenue to the treasury.
Concerning the developments that emerged after the 7th of October massacre carried out by Hamas, it becomes clearer that Sri Lankan public opinion on Israel posits a divided opinion. The Sinhalese Buddhist majority, especially the selective Sinhalese nationalist groups have expressed pro-Israeli views affirming Israel’s right to self-defence and many of those pro-Israeli rhetoric in Sinhalese society are grounded on the profound sentiments than having understood the political trajectories of the Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East. It should be noted that these pro-Israeli tendencies reflect the new dynamics that occurred in the Sri Lankan labour market as many Sri Lankan employees from the health care to construction filled the gaps in the Israeli labour market vacated by the Palestinian Arabs. Despite the pro-Palestinian slogans showcased by the Sri Lankan diplomats in the UN, stronger ties with Israel in the labour sector counties indicate Colombo’s dubiousness.
Amidst the complexities visible from the island nation’s relations with Israel, growing antipathy inflamed by various actors within the Muslim community towards Israel and Jews is a critical concern, which cannot be ignored before the alarming situation in Arugam Bay. The anti-Israeli protests in Colombo since Israel began its military operations in Gaza have increased at unprecedented levels, mostly followed by the long marches with eager Muslim youth chanting anti-Zionist slogans. This year, several mass rallies organized by local Muslims took place in Colombo and along the Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka. These events culminated in the observance of Nakba Day in May 2024, aimed at expressing solidarity with Palestine. Ironically, these protests did not receive support from the Sinhalese Buddhist majority in Sri Lanka. In fact, some ultra-nationalist Sinhalese Buddhist organizations, led by Buddhist monks, openly supported Israel’s military actions in Gaza.
Given such a twisted context that denotes many grey areas in understanding islanders’ perception of Israel or Israelis, the recent security threat that arose from Arugam Bay cannot be ignored as a complete hoax. Sri Lanka’s own tragic experience with Islamic terrorism through the calamitous Easter attacks in 2019 still haunts the public psyche on the detrimental blunder made by the state authorities by ignoring the intelligence details, which could have easily prevented such an unmitigated disaster. Thus, Mossad’s warning followed by the Israel National Security Council to Israeli tourists intending to visit Sri Lanka refers to certain reports gathered on terrorist squads roaming in Sri Lanka to target Israeli tourists as a potential attack similar to what Iranian agents attempted to kill Israeli tourists in Istanbul in 2022.
The recent activities including many anti-Israeli protests held in Colombo received tremendous support from the Iranian embassy in Colombo regardless of the relatively low Shia Muslim population in Sri Lanka. Iranian gaze in Sri Lanka is on the verge of robust developments since Ibrahim Raisi’s visit to Sri Lanka in May 2024. According to Iran expert Ronen Soloman, an Israeli intelligence analyst Malaysia traditionally stands as the oasis for Iranian agents to carry out their operations across Asia. Still, Iran’s links with the larger Shia Muslim community in North India are a significant concern as pro-Iranian Shia Muslims in the Sub-Continent can act as fifth columnists to undermine regional security. In particular, the growth of the Shia Muslim community in Sri Lanka under Iranian patronage is akin to the astute strategy espoused by the Saudis in the 1970s in Sri Lanka to spread Wahabi doctrine and this Shia influence penetrating Sri Lanka can lead to manufacturing more Iranian proxies within the Sri Lankan society in the fashion that IRGC conducts its clandestine operations targeting the Israelis in India.
On the whole, the situation in Arugam Bay in Sri Lanka exposed the tip of the iceberg of the security architecture of the island nation, in which the threat towards Israelis is more than a conjuncture.
Punsara Amarasinghe is a Post-Doctoral Researcher at the Institute of Law, Politics and Development at Scuola Superiore Sant Anna, Pisa.
