27 August 2024, NIICE Commentary 9443
Sivasankar D
The Maldives, strategically located in the Indian Ocean with one of the world’s largest exclusive economic zones, lies at the center of key maritime routes vital for global energy transfer, particularly through chokepoints like the Gulf of Aden/Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca. China’s growing presence in the Maldives has alarmed India, which has strong historical and strategic ties to the region. In response, India has increased diplomatic engagement, economic aid, and investment in the Maldives, while also prioritizing defense cooperation and maritime security to counter Chinese influence and protect its interests in the Indian Ocean.
Since President Muizzu’s victory in September, which followed his demand that Indian forces be immediately evacuated from the Maldives, bilateral relations between the Maldives and India have remained strained. The “India Out” platform of Muizzu’s presidential campaign contrasted with the pro-India stance of the majority of his predecessors.
India’s Importance in Maldives
Geoeconomic Significance
Situated at the crossroads of several important trade routes that traverse the Indian Ocean, the Maldives enjoy a strategic location. The Sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) in the Maldives region facilitate 50% of India’s overseas trade and 80% of its energy imports. India and the Maldives have collaborated in many regional alliances , indicating their geopolitical significance. The Colombo Security Conclave (CSC), SASEC, SAARC, and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) are among organizations that the Maldives is in. Indian permanent membership in the UNSC is supported by the Maldives.
Security Importance
When it comes to combating transnational piracy, drug trafficking, narcotics, terrorism, and other marine offenses, the Maldives are India’s first line of defense. The Maldives’ geographical location puts it in a position to act as a “toll gate” between the eastern and western Indian Oceans, which are choke points formed by the Straits of Malacca and the Gulf of Aden.
The Indian Diaspora
The India Diaspora is significant since there is a sizable Indian diaspora in the Maldives. The tourist, hospitality, and medical sectors of the Maldives employ a sizable Indian workforce.
Chinese Agreement and Defence Ties with Maldives
On January 10, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu signed 20 key agreements, upgrading their relationship to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. These agreements covered tourism, disaster management, the blue economy, digital investments, and the Belt and Road Initiative, including social housing, fisheries processing, and road projects. China will provide undisclosed grant support.
On March 4, 2024, China and the Maldives signed a defense cooperation pact, shortly after President Muizzu’s call for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel. Major General Zhang Baoqun met with Maldivian Defense Minister Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon to discuss defense collaboration.
The agreement includes training and non-lethal military equipment for the Maldivian military, enhancing its capabilities. President Muizzu emphasized that these steps will strengthen defenses and promote self-reliance.
Chinese Military Presence in Maldives
The ship Xiang Yang Hong 03, initially set to dock in Sri Lanka, was detected near Jakarta on January 22 and was expected in Male on 8. Colombo denied the ship docking for reconnaissance in December 2023. Concerns about espionage arose as the ship enters the Maldivian EEZ, despite the government’s claims of a replenishment visit. Former deputy ambassador Mohamed Faisal urged the ship’s immediate departure, citing its history of oceanographic research and potential intelligence gathering on underwater infrastructure. The ship’s dual-use technology poses risks to the Maldives’ economy and security, with fears of compromising sovereignty and increasing reliance on China. The ship arrived earlier than expected, and OSINT reports indicate three more research vessels in the Indian Ocean, raising concerns for India.
Vessels present in the Indian Ocean, Source: Damian Symon@X
Countermeasures of India to China for the Above Situations
This is an organized list of the many steps India has made to oppose Chinese influence in the Maldives and the Indian Ocean.
Sri Lanka welcomed the Indian Navy submarine INS Karanj at Colombo port after closing its ports to Chinese research vessels and submarines. This move is seen as a diplomatic victory for India amidst disputes over China’s activities in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The submarine’s presence sends a message to Beijing and Male, reinforcing India’s role as the IOR’s primary security provider.
India declared a no-fly zone over the Bay of Bengal for a missile test, which was postponed due to the approach of the Chinese satellite and missile tracking vessel Yuan Wang 03 in the IOR.
Area warning of India, Bay of Bengal, Source: OSINT
In response to increasing Chinese influence in the Maldives, India plans to enhance its naval presence by establishing air bases and naval stations in the Lakshadweep Islands, including INS Jatayu in Minicoy. This will help monitor Chinese vessel movements and serve as a rest and resupply point for patrolling naval ships.
India is also strengthening ties with other island nations like Mauritius. The upgraded airstrip and jetty on Agaléga Islands will expand India’s reach in the Indian Ocean and improve coverage of the waters off the east coast of Africa, countering China’s growing influence, particularly in the Maldives.
India has imposed port restrictions on the export of critical commodities to the Maldives. According to the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), exports will now be allowed only through four customs stations: Mundra Sea Port, Tuticorin Sea Port, Nhava Sheva Sea Port, and ICD Tughlakabad, reflecting the evolving India-Maldives relationship.
Analysis
The Maldives, strategically located in the Indian Ocean, are a crucial trade hub and a key point for monitoring Sea Lines of Communication, impacting India’s trade and energy imports and China’s oil supplies. However, recent opaque agreements with China raise security concerns.
While growing ties with China could boost the Maldives’ military, economy, and education, concerns about unsustainable debt and increased dependence on China raise fears of an economic crisis similar to those in Pakistan and Sri Lanka due to China’s Debt Trap policy.
Public sentiment in the Maldives shows awareness of a shift in relations from China to India, with no animosity toward India. However, the risks and benefits of this shift are not fully understood, though relations between Indians and Maldivians remain positive.
Recommendation
To strengthen India-Maldives relations, promoting soft power diplomacy can be particularly effective, as evidenced by the positive reception of the Indian Prime Minister’s Eid wishes to the Maldives. In parallel, India should focus on enhancing its maritime surveillance capabilities, such as satellite monitoring and aircraft patrols, to closely track Chinese military activity in the Maldives and surrounding waters. Encouraging regional stakeholders to collaborate on multilateral defense initiatives, including joint naval drills, information exchanges, and capacity-building programs, is essential for addressing shared security challenges and deterring potential threats. Diplomatic engagement with China is also crucial, aiming to promote transparency, build trust, and reduce tensions in strategic maritime regions. Furthermore, India must continuously counter China’s “String of Pearls” strategy with its own strategic initiatives, including the “Necklace of Diamonds,” “Act East Policy,” port development, and the “Double Fish Hook Strategy,” to maintain its influence and security in the region.
Sivasankar D is a Research Intern at NIICE.
