19th June 2024 NIICE Commentary 9269
Kyle Dane Ballogan
In an interview with American correspondent Anna Louise Strong in 1946, the term “paper tiger” surfaced when Mao Tse-Tung referred to the atomic bombs of the United States as looking terrible but otherwise in reality. Later on, Mao paralleled all reactionaries like the Russian Tsar, Chiang Kai Shek, Mussolini, and Japanese imperialism to paper tigers for appearing terrifically strong but in fact, are not. Admittedly, they were real and living tigers too, perhaps before the people overthrew them.
In the Maritime Dispute, Who Fears Whom?
Based on the descriptions of Mao, a paper tiger is postured in the West Philippine Sea– the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and China Coast Guard (CCG) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Even then, the PLA is already deliberately and aggressively harassing the Philippines in the maritime zones of the West Philippine Sea (WPS). However, the PLA and CCG have recently stepped up their efforts increasing maneuvers in WPS. Through naval vessels against the Philippine coast guards, the attacks have ranged from a military-grade laser, a series of water cannons, deliberate collisions, PLA’s chopper hovering low over Filipino scientists, and ramming and boarding Filipino boats. All of which are documented by the media and the victims themselves. Despite these, it is not the Philippines who fear China, but China who will soon fear the result of its unjust cause and live ammunition in the seas.
The Philippines’ Charm Campaign Triggered China’s Insecurity
The new administration and Philippine maritime security policy under President Marcos Jr. have been testing China’s ambition for hegemonic maritime reach and self-building in the region. Even during the election campaign and his State of the Nation Address, President Marcos Jr. pledged to assert and uphold the landmark 2016 Hague arbitral ruling favoring the Philippine territory in the South China Sea. As part of the process of upholding that ruling, President Marcos Jr. sharply reversed the pivot to China of the previous Duterte administration who had the “handshake agreement” to maintain the status quo of the South China Sea. President Marcos Jr. made some bold moves and a policy-changing stance of rebalancing with like-minded states as manifested in his high-level security meetings and the upgrade of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States. This was followed by a series of joint drills and patrols joined by Japan, the United States, and Australia. Such actions that lashed out at China’s insecurity provoked a coercive-aggressive paper tiger. Of course, it was China’s fear of being encircled by outside powers aligned with the inside opposition like the Philippines. CCP always calls it “interference”, no less.
Final Warnings, Patrols, and Imperialism
China’s paper tiger-ing was manifested in the three cases of Warnings, Patrols, and Imperialism.
1. Warnings
First is the series of regular warnings against the Philippines by China’s high officials alleging the former of halting tension. To name a few, CCP officials would use words of caution such as “play with fire”, “act with caution”, “sober enough to realize”, and “not to abuse China’s goodwill” in trying to influence the Philippines’ invocation of its territory. These countless “final” warnings include cautions from PLA’s vessels over the Philippine Coastguard in the actual area. Such “99th final alarms” as I see it as a catchphrase, with no dire consequences, would give the impression that if the Philippines do not submit, there would be an imminent danger or impending problems coming from China. There were, indeed, water canons, harassments, and maneuvers, a showing of how willing China can enter into brinkmanship to prove its illegal claim.
2. Patrols
Apart from warnings are the PLA’s regular military combat patrols to showcase its military and presence in the region. Despite the sailing civilian entities of the Philippines around the West Philippine Sea, China has continuously flexed its military capabilities in different forms of aggression and ship display to give ultimatums for the Philippines to stop or else. These patrols are worst accompanied by the antics of the PLA and CCG to harass. Such routine patrols occurred countless times and are continuously patrolling around the area even before the joint patrol between the Philippines, Japan, and the United States in 2023.
3. Imperialism
China also tried to dislodge not just the Philippines, but the other claimants in the region through its imperialist and extraordinary maritime claim. This is shown when the CCP released its new imperial map featuring the 10-dash line claiming the entire sea and updating its 9-dash line claim in SCS. In line, Beijing also imposed a unilateral fishing ban and no trespass rule in the SCS, disregarding the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. Such baseless expansion is an imperialist tendency of China to strengthen and assert its position in the region.
Politically speaking, however, as Mao referred to imperialists— looking strong but weak for being divorced from the people— so China will be. China’s megalomaniac muscle-flexing is an internalized rampant corruption and “peace disease”. It makes a keen observer doubt if China’s public is even willing to go to an offensive war using PLA’s sugar-coated bullets.
Like Mao’s paper tiger, China’s threats are quantitatively impressive and superficially strong, yet qualitatively weak. It is spectacular because the CCP spent lavish resources on naval modernization to assert itself overseas, yet weak because of its frustrated and inimical leadership. Although allergic to those blocking its way, the CCP has to cope with the reality that it cannot easily go to an expensive war because its external ambitions and far-flung economic interests beyond territorial disputes will be collaterally damaged consequently risking its national rejuvenation efforts at home. There are interconnections, of sorts.
If China continuously voids the regional maritime order, it will become a real tiger for eating neighbors and antagonizing people. An adversarial country despised and divorced from the community. Even at present, neither of its regional neighbors is attracted to the CCP. As for the Philippines, the core task is to be fearless of the scare antics of the paper tiger. A war-mongering paper tiger will not scare for nothing, the same that it will not start naval warfare but it provokes the other to do it.
Kyle Dane Ballogan is a Research Intern at NIICE and he is currently pursuing his BA in Political Science from the University of the Cordilleras, Philippines.
