19th June 2024 NIICE Commentary 9269
Kyle Dane Ballogan
In an interview with American correspondent Anna Louise Strong in 1947, the term “paper tiger” surfaced when Chairman Mao Tse Tung referred to the atomic bombs of the United States as looking terrible but otherwise in reality. Mao then paralleled reactionaries like the Russian Tsar, Chiang Kai Shek, Mussolini, and Japanese imperialism to paper tigers for appearing terrifying but actually not so powerful. Of course, they were real tigers too, perhaps before they were overthrown.
In Today’s World, Who Truly Fears Whom?
Based on the descriptions of Mao, there is a paper tiger postured in the eyes of the Philippines– the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Even then, the PLA is already around deliberately and aggressively harassing the Philippines into the maritime zones of the West Philippine Sea. Since 2023, however, the PLA has stepped up by increasing maneuvers in the West Philippine Sea. Through the PLA’s maritime militia vessels against the Philippine civilian coast guards, the attacks have ranged from a military-grade laser, a series of water cannons, collisions, and a Chinese Navy helicopter hovering over Filipino scientists. All of which are documented with images, aerial shots, and videos taken by the Philippine government and the victims themselves. Despite these, it is not the Philippines who fears China, but China who will soon fear the result of its unjust cause and live ammunition.
A Struggling Small Nation
In reality, the new administration and Philippine foreign policy under President Marcos Jr. have been testing China’s ambition for maritime reach. Even during the election campaign and State of the Nation Address (SONA), President Marcos Jr. pledged to assert and uphold the landmark 2016 South China Sea Hague arbitral ruling. Along the process, he sharply reversed the pivot to China of the previous Duterte administration. He made some bold moves and a policy-changing stance of rebalancing with like-minded states as manifested in his high-level security meetings and the upgrade of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the USA. This was followed by a series of joint drills and patrols joined by Japan, the United States, and Australia. All of which, in effect, made the PLA behave like a paper tiger. China’s paper tiger-ing was manifested in the three cases of Warnings, Patrols, and Imperialism.
Warnings
First is the series of almost monthly warnings against the Philippines by China’s high officials alleging the former of halting tension. To name a few, Chinese officials would use words of caution such as “play with fire”, “act with caution”, and “sober enough to realize” in trying to dictate Philippine security policy. These countless “final” warnings include cautions from Chinese vessels over the Philippine Coastguard and fishermen. Such final alarms, with no dire consequences, would give the impression that if the Philippines do not submit, there would be an imminent danger or impending problems coming from China.
Patrols
Apart from warnings are the military patrols of the PLA to showcase its military might and presence in the region. Despite the sailing civilian entities of the Philippines around the area, China has continuously flexed its military capabilities in different forms of aggression to give ultimatums for the Philippines to stop or else. These routine patrols occurred countless times and are continuously patrolling around the area even before the joint patrol between the Philippines, Japan, and the United States in 2023.
Imperialism
Third, China also tried to dislodge not just the Philippines, but the other claimants in the region through imperialism with its extraordinary maritime claim. This is shown when the CCP released its new imperial map featuring the 10-dash line, updating its 9-dash line claim in SCS. Recently, Beijing also imposed a unilateral fishing ban in the SCS, disregarding the EEZ of the Philippines. Such expansion is a presumptuous imperialist tendency to strengthen and assert its position in the region.
But as Mao referred to imperialists— quite powerful but politically weak due to being disconnected from the masses— and so China will be. China’s megalomaniac muscle-flexing is an externalized rampant corruption and “peace disease”. It makes a keen observer doubt if China’s public is even willing to go to an offensive war using PLA’s sugar-coated bullets.
Like Mao’s paper tiger, China’s threats are quantitatively impressive and superficially strong, yet qualitatively frail. It is spectacular because the CCP spent enormous resources on the military, yet weak because of its frustrated and inimical leadership. Although allergic to those blocking its way, the CCP has to cope with the reality that it cannot easily go to war because of its hyped power. It cannot go to an expensive war because its external ambitions and far-flung interests beyond territorial disputes will be collaterally damaged consequently risking its national efforts at home. There are interconnections of sorts.
If China continuously voids the regional maritime order, and this opinion is a miscalculation to China, it will become a real tiger for eating neighbours and antagonizing people. And eventually, a paper tiger– an adversarial country despised and disconnected from the community. Even at present, neither of its regional neighbours is attracted to the CCP.
Kyle Dane Ballogan is a Research Intern at NIICE and he is currently pursuing his BA in Political Science from the University of the Cordilleras, Philippines.
