9 February 2024, NIICE Commentary 8966
Saurav Raj Pant
Germany for the first time has initiated a China Strategy under the EU common foreign policy on China to address the growing influence of China and to defend Germany’s national interest. This Strategy recognizes China as a multi-faceted partner, competitor and systemic rival. The Strategy describes, partners as someone in which German government has to work on collaborative way to address the world’s pressing challenges such as Climate Change. China; which is one of the world’s largest CO₂ emitters – requires a collaborative work. In addition to this, Germany-China partnership could deliver bigger achievements in renewable energy. This is even more significant as Germany had over reliance on Russian Energy before the Russia-Ukraine war—forcing Germany to find out alternatives for advancing its energy self reliance.
The Strategy further adds that Germany believes in healthy competition and is not afraid of any fair competition. Being the strongest economy in Europe, Germany seeks to engage in economic activities with China; that works on win-win situation for both countries rather than zero-sum game. The strategy underscores to minimize risks while interacting with China and avoiding de-coupling from her. De-coupling from China has been popular melodrama in the US with series of acts such as export control to China on critical technological products including Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). But this strategy shows Germany’s opposing approach for that of the US strategy.
In terms of Systemic rivalry; Germany holds divergence views in managing international order in comparision with China. For Germany, rules-based international order; that has well placed cooperation and adhere to the international norms like Human Rights, Women Rights, space for Civil Societies whereas China with its most centralized governance system ruled by one party showed assertiveness in recent time especially after its 20th National Congress positioned herself to play more dominant roles in global politics benefited by its mammoth economic growth. That’s why due to discrepancy approaches of these two economic giants, the Strategy urge that, though there are areas of common understanding between Germany and China, but both equally holds arena where they pose a challenge.
In the Strategy, Germany’s vague interpretation on ‘One-China policy’ and its relations with Taiwan shows some concern for China. With no doubt, German government align with ‘One-China policy’ but further sought to work with Taiwan government on several fronts including democratic areas. China, other hand has a cold-blooded approach on any countries who tried to dealt with Taiwan on unilateral manner without concerning China. Germany’s such ambiguous strategy may have been inspired from the US foreign policy that wants to work with Taiwan’s self-identity in parallel with China for managing the confrontation. Further, Germany’s Strategy emphasizes that, if a situation arises for changing the status quo of Taiwan, it believes in peaceful and mutual consent and avoids military intervention because it could harm German and European interests. This is a bit confusing. Advocating for the ‘One-China policy’ and recognizing the change of the status quo without harming European and German interests seems impractical.
Just like Germany’s first-ever strategy on China, China had already launched its China-EU policy in 2018, which describes the aim of fostering a comprehensive strategic partnership in various domains. But important points here to note is that, how far the EU and individual member countries of the EU can go ahead in strengthening ties with China avoiding the radar of the US, NATO and Russia. The Chinese strategy to make EU one of its strategic partner show complex equation as German’s China strategy wants to work on major issues such as Climate Change and promoting business environment but not in terms of nationalization and localization tendencies in the area of standardization for Technological sovereignty – that China is currently pursuing. The strategic parternship that involves military as well as common political ideology building in global affairs is tough game for China to persuade EU and Germany.
Way forward
Germany faces multi-prolonged challenges in implementing this strategy. As Germany’s Strategy originated from the EU Common Foreign Policy on China; Germany has to withstand a series of reservations; may come from the member countries. The growing Chinese influence in the Eastern Europe could able to pressurize the affluent Western Europeans to develop hard core anti-China policy; that in return may not be suitable for Germany alone to implement this balanced strategy as it comprises both carrot and stick diplomacy. This strategy should have to be implemented under the strategic autonomy approach; which may not seem feasible because of the external influencers, particularly the United States. This is due to the fact that, the US is acting as the security umbrella for Europe to defend itself against Russian nukes.
Next to this, Germany being one of the vital members of NATO; the military alliance is defending Ukraine against Russian aggression in the battlefield. Russia-China has inked long lasting friendship – making China as one of the hard-core supporters for Russia. For, NATO – Russia is the greatest foe. While pursuing her strategy it must uphold the obligations for NATO and has to participate in defending Europe from potential security threats. That threats is primarily ignited by Russia in Eastern Europe and by China in Taiwan Strait. Managing this balance while maintaining its credible position within NATO and engaging with China on various fronts is a tough job. In this whole scenario, carefully navigating Germany’s relations with the member countries of the EU and the US is a must. Both the US and the EU member countries have their own understanding, strategy and interest in dealing with China. Therefore, Germany’s roles in both alliances requires to balance its position effectively. This will contribute Germany’s broader European objectives, considering the diverse interests and priorities of various stakeholders and finding common ground that serves Germany’s national interest. Therefore, balancing strategic autonomy, fulfilling NATO commitments, maintaining internal cohesion within the EU, and skillfully managing the ‘One-China policy’ and Taiwan relations are all critical considerations; that must be taken to shape Germany’s approach in engaging with China.
Saurav Raj Pant is a Doctoral Student at Department of International Relations and Diplomacy, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu. Nepal.
