5 Feb 2024, NIICE Commentary 8959
Juhi Sharma
The world’s largest democracy is a few weeks away from its next general election in 2024. The political climate in India is one of pro-incumbency. A unanimous agreement has emerged among political analysts ahead of the 2024 general elections about Modi’s third victory in India. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which is ideologically a Hindu nationalist party, has been in power consecutively for two terms with a majority share of votes in the Lok Sabha (House of the People) of India. While the opposition struggles hard to claim its space in India’s political chessboard, the world’s eyes are on India’s 2024 general election, enmeshed in the political landscape of – Modi’s populism, the triumph of Hindu nationalism, and India’s rise to be a global friend, and global leader particularly after its 2023 G20 presidency.
The ruling BJP’s twin planks: Hindu Nationalism and the Modi wave
The BJP has dominated electoral politics in India since 2014, with its twin political advantages of Hindu Nationalism, and Modi’s populist wave. First, India under Modi, occupies a primary space in the worldwide populist surge. Riding high on the Modi wave, the BJP secured 282 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. The BJP’s political sloganeering is an expression of its Modi-centric agenda. In the 2019 elections, where the main slogan of the BJP campaign was “Abkibaar Modi Sarkar” (Another time Modi government), the Modi wave swept the country even better, with the BJP securing a clear majority of 303 seats. Narendra Modi’s popularity is of such a scale that many view the 2024 general election as a referendum on Modi, which makes the upcoming election in 2024 all the more interesting. The winter session of the Indian Parliament started with the BJP members chanting “Teesri Baar Modi Sarkar” (third time Modi government) and “Baar Baar Modi Sarkar” (again and again Modi government).
Second, the Hindu nationalist BJP, whose initial rise and complete history of political triumph are originally based on the Ayodhya Ram Mandir movement, reached its zenith upon the inauguration of the Ram Mandir on the legally contested site of the Babri Masjid in January 2024. The BJP government maneuvered the religious event into a political one with the goal of mobilizing the Hindu masses for the inauguration of the Ram temple to foster communal agreement on a ‘Ram Rashtra’ (Lord Ram’s nation). The Ram Mandir in Ayodhya holds great symbolic value for the Hindu voter base in India. While the country’s masses were engrossed in celebratory enthusiasm, the political critics including the opposition parties and the minority Muslim community see the Ram Mandir consecration as the victory of majoritarian nationalism rather than the pinnacle of a great religion. For the opposition, attending the Ram Mandir inauguration ceremony posed the risk of turning into pawns of the BJP. Consequently, most of the opposition parties refrained from attending the Ram-Mandir inauguration ceremony, stating it to be a BJP event. This has led the opposition to come under the attack of anti-Hindu rhetoric by the BJP. The event that marked the modern-day return of Ram after 500 years is set to greatly benefit the BJP on the ballot.
Where does the opposition stand?
The opposition parties in India have come under the coalition of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which is a big-tent political alliance led by the BJP’s main opponent, Indian National Congress. The opposition alliance’s major political currency is the clever name it has minted for itself by using the BJP’s nationalist rants and rhetoric as tools to demolish its opponents. A major agenda of the opposition’s election campaign is caste. India follows a reservation policy that benefits backward communities. Over the years, several communities have raised demands for Other Backward Caste (OBC) status with aspirations of the benefits of the reservation policy. The last caste census in India dates back to the pre-independence era. The opposition has been pressing for a caste census in India, trying to develop an agenda of identity politics for the 2024 elections. The OBCs, who constitute 40% of the Indian population, are the largest voting bloc in India, and the opposition plans to bank on them in the 2024 election. The INDIA alliance has not put forward any Prime Ministerial face. The opposition’s failure to present a strong leader in the run-up to the 2024 general elections in India puts it at a clear disadvantage compared to the ruling alliance, which has Modi as its charismatic leader. However, The INDIA alliance has presented a Dalit leader as its chairperson as part of its caste card. Dalits are a disadvantaged community in India.
The INC is carrying out a countrywide rally that focuses on issues of economic and social injustice breeding under the BJP’s rule called the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra (Bharat connecting Justice rally) led by Rahul Gandhi, India’s main opposition leader. The nationwide rally aims to connect the length and breadth of the country to produce a nationalist ambition of socio-economic justice. The Congress has strategically chosen the North-Eastern state of Manipur which has been embroiled in communal conflict since May 2023, as the starting point of the rally. The INC is using a nationalist narrative to spread the word about its issue-based agenda. The opposition has incorporated the cards of widespread unemployment in the world’s most populous country, economic inequalities, the democratic backsliding in the world’s largest democracy under Mr. Modi, and the BJP’s Muslim discriminatory anti-secular politics in its political agenda.
Although the INDIA alliance started strong, internal divisions plague the alliance in matters of seat-sharing. Several parties have parted ways from the INDIA alliance. Most notably, the JDU from Bihar which has Nitish Kumar- the ‘Mandal face’ has switched sides to join the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA). With this, the INDIA alliance’s caste card is set to suffer in the Hindi heartland. Importantly, the INDIA alliance that lacks ideological common ground, but stands united in its anti-Modi stance faces a daunting challenge to counter BJP’s grotesque Hindu nationalism.
The 2019 vs 2024 general election in India
The 2019 election in India, where the Bharatiya Janata Party emerged victorious with a majority, occurred on the backdrop of the Pulwama terrorist attack by Pakistan and the Balakot revenge episode, which led to a massive resurgence of the sentiment of nationalism among Indian citizens. Unlike the 2019 elections, the 2024 elections are not set up in an environment of catalytic patriotic upsurge as yet. Contrastingly, the prelude to the 2024 election involves a triumphant sentiment of Hindu nationalism with the BJP’s biggest politico-religious event of the Ram Mandir inauguration, leading the way for a ‘Ram Rashtra’ (Ram’s nation). The 2019 general election involved the campaign promise of the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) passed on 10, December 2019 in India, that propagated a Muslim exclusionary notion of citizenship in India. It came under great criticism as being part of BJP’s negative politics of Hindu nationalism. Unlike the 2019 general election, the January 2024 inauguration of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya in the prelude to the 2024 general election is based on a Supreme Court ruling and thus entails a positive politics of Hindu nationalism. Politics in India has transformed from being issue-based to a cult personality based practice. The 2024-25 interim budget did not incorporate the promises of new welfare schemes or tax exemptions, although there is a significant allotment to existing social justice schemes. Contrastingly, the 2019 pre-election budget introduced new popular welfare schemes, notably the ‘PM Kisan scheme’ for farmers and tax cuts for low-income groups. This expresses the BJP’s confidence about a third victory, primarily based on its twin agenda of ‘Modi Magic’ and ‘Ram Rashtra’. Although the opposition alliance suffers from internal divisions in both elections, there has been significant progress in the opposition in two areas: nationalist rhetoric and caste propaganda.
Conclusion
In the absence of a concrete agenda and unity among the opposition parties, one can speculate that the BJP is set to win the 2024 general election. The opposition also lacks a leader who can pose a formidable challenge to Modi’s personality cult. While there is a great possibility of the BJP emerging victorious for a third term in a row, one is yet to see if Modi’s party is able to retain its absolute majority in the Indian parliament. The INDIA alliance does not seem to be capable of defeating the BJP, but it is capable of potentially reducing the number of seats won by the BJP.
Juhi Sharma is working as Research Assistant at Centre for Global India Insights, New Delhi, India.
