General Election 2022: The Future Course of Nepalese Politics

30 November 2022, NIICE Commentary 8420
Saroj Deo

Nepal successfully conducted General Elections of Federal and Provincial Assemblies. It was the second General Election after the promulgation of new Constitution of Nepal, drafted by the elected Constituent Assembly in 2015. During the election, there was decline in the voters turn out due to high level of dissatisfaction among people towards political leaders and political parties. According to the Election Commission only 61 percent of people turn out to cast their votes compared to 68 percent in the previous election of 2017.

Political Tussles

In spite of having almost two-thirds of the support in the parliament, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s cabinet dissolved parliament two times blaming leaders from his own party, the then Nepal Communist Party (NCP), and the opposition. However, despite that, the parliament completed its five years tenure. Due to the parliament’s dissolution and long tussle within his party, KP Sharma Oli faced huge loss at this election. The second Chairman of NCP, Prachanda and Senior Leader Madhav Kumar Nepal protested against KP Sharma Oli move and went to Supreme Court and eventually the NCP that had merged before the 2017 election faced the split and the new government under the prime ministership of Sher Bahadur Deuba was formed after the long tussle.

NCP was split into three parties – namely CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Centre), and CPN (Unified Socialist) led by KP Sharma Oli, Prachanda and Madhav Kumar Nepal respectively. The Deuba government was the coaltion of five political parties – Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Centre), CPN (Unified Socialist), Janata Samajbadi Party, and Rastya Janmorcha.

Electoral Alliances and the Verdict  

Though all the parties of the ruling alliance agreed to continue their alliance for the election, Janata Samajbadi Party led by Upendra Yadav left the alliance at the last hours and joined the opposition alliance led by KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML. However, Loktantrik Samajwadi Party joined the ruling alliance. The opposition alliance of CPN-UML was thus backed by Janata Samajbadi Party, Rashtriya Prajatantra Party and Rashtriya Prajatantra Party Nepal.

As per the results announced till 30 November 2022, out of 165 seats in FTTP (first-past-the-post electoral system), the Nepali Congress manage to get 55 seats plus (two lead), CPN-UML 44 seats, and CPN (Maoist Centre) 17 seats (one lead) in the federal parliament claiming the top three positions respectively. Out of almost 4 dozen political parties, only 7 parties could cross the  threshold of 3 percent to claim the position of national parties. Surprisingly, many seniors and popular leaders from different political parties lost the election

Emergence of Youth and Independent Candidates

The emergence of young and independent leaders like Balen Shah, Harka Raj Sampang Rai and Gopi Hamal during the local election had motivated many youths and independent candidates to contest election. Along with the independent candidates and newly formed Rashtriya Swatanra Party, new force in Madhesh led by CK Raut were able to perform quite well challenging the major political forces.

The voting trend shows that the people are gradually changing their mindset on the traditional political force and are transforming Nepalese politics through their ballots. This change in trend was due to the rising frustration against the traditional political parties who  had failed to deliver their commitments time and again. The rise of the Rastra Swantantra Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party and Janmat Party has brought a new enthusiasm in the Nepalese politics as we will be able to witness many new young faces in the parliament.

Hung Parliament?

The government formation with the current General Election verdict might be challenging as around 13 political parties would be present in the parliament. The previous parliament had the representatives from 9 political parties while the major political parties had strong hold. It is most likely that the ruling alliance would be able to garner enough support to form the government. Predictions are made that Nepali Congress and CPN-Maoist Center would share the Prime Ministership on rotational basis. However, few media reports also claims the possibility of left alliance of CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Centre), CPN (Unified Socialist), Janata Samajbadi Party, Rastya Janmorcha and others. As Nepali politics is always full of surprises, this claim cannot be fully ruled out. Whoever forms the government and leads would have relatively stable 2 years of tenure as according to Constitution of Nepal 2015, Article 100 (4), a motion of no confidence cannot be tabled until the first two years after the appointment of the Prime Minister. However, the later 3 years might witness lots of instability in Nepalese politics.

Way Ahead

The future of the CPN (Maoist Centre), CPN (Unified Socialist), Janata Samajbadi Party, and Loktanrik Samajbadi Party looks uncertain unless they transform themselves and makes themselves relevant in Nepalese politics. It is time for them to introspect and reform the party with new ideas, young faces and democratic values that governs the internal politics. This message is clearly expressed by the voters of General Election 2022. However, it would be equally fascinating to see how these new faces, youth and independent candidates who were able to ensure trust to the voters transfer people’s verdicts into meaningful and holistic development. Let’s hope the aspiration of the people would dominate this time in parliament and the cabinet through new faces, parties, first-generation leaders and all elected parliament members.

Saroj Deo is Research Associate at NIICE.