7 October 2021, NIICE Commentary 8315
Dr. Kumari Mansi
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in the beginning of August sparked Chinese military drill of unprecedented scale around Taiwan. Ten days after the visit, on August 12 (and reiterated on August 25) India called for an “exercise of restraint” and “avoidance of unilateral actions to change status quo” without referring to either China or Taiwan or the “One China policy.” Since 2010, India has not used the “One China policy” in its official statements in retaliation to China’s undermining of the “One India policy.” India sternly opposed China’s position on the Indian provinces of Arunachal Pradesh and erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir.
India maintained a “studied silence” as the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis unfolded. The actual invasion, once a distant possibility, might seem plausible following the 3rd White Paper titled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era,” released by the People’s Republic of China on 10 August 2022, amid escalating cross-strait tensions.
In the wake of the ongoing crisis, as many as 170 countries reaffirmed their commitment to the ‘One China policy’, as per the Chinese Foreign Ministry. India, on the other hand, remained tight-lipped and maintained strategic silence. However on August 27, in a rare instance and departure from previous statement, India for the first time referred to “the militarization of the Taiwan Strait” by China amid a spat with China over the visit of Yuan Wang 5, Chinese military tracking vessel, to strategically located Hambantota port in Sri Lanka.
India’s studied silence is interpreted in varied ways. There is an overwhelming suggestion that India should rethink the “One China policy” and use the “Taiwan Card” as leverage vis-à-vis China. Leaders from opposition parties went on to suggest that India should also send a parliamentary delegation to Taiwan.
However, another side of the story must be referred to understand India’s silence. The historical antecedent of India-Republic of China (ROC) relations and the legacy of Chiang Kai-Shek’s ROC still form a part of Taiwan’s existence. Taiwan has not historically adhered to the “One India Policy” like China. It does not recognize India’s claim over Arunachal Pradesh (which China claims as Southern Tibet). It is a matter of concern in India’s strategic community. In 1986, Taiwan formally condemned the Indian government for establishing Arunachal Pradesh. Not just that, many Chinese claims on the border and in the South China Sea were initially proposed by the Chiang Kai-shek regime. His position regarding the McMahon line also tallied with that of the People’s Republic of China. An example of this legacy is the map of India on Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) website, which as per India, is grossly inaccurate. The present Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government, which is supposedly India-enthusiast, may not share the views of Kuomintang’s (KMT) ROC regarding its territory. Still, it has not shown enthusiasm to condemn China when it undertakes an act of aggression against India along the Line of Actual Control.
Apart from that, we cannot discard that India’s neighborhood is highly volatile. In addition to China, India also has conflicts with Pakistan. China and Pakistan’s camaraderie is world-known, which pits the duo against India. The most recent example is the “technical hold” that China placed on the listing for Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Abdul Rauf Asghar at the UN Security Council on August 11. China’s support for Pakistan and its bid to encircle India on land and at sea through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) pose risks to India’s traditional and non-traditional security. India needs to tread carefully and cannot afford to succumb to international or domestic pressure when dealing with its giant neighbor. Kautilya’s mantra that “Enemy’s enemy is a friend” may not apply to today’s multilayered international system, “Saam, Daam, Dand, and Bhed” mantra of realpolitik does certainly apply. India’s studied silence has inferences for:
China – Territorial integrity and sovereignty are reciprocatory. It frustrated China to the extent that the Chinese ambassador had to call India to adhere to the “One China Policy” explicitly.
Taiwan – Time to move away from historical antecedents and distance itself from China’s stance on India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
India and Taiwan relations are on an upward trajectory under Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and DPP governments, but its nature remains highly transactional and limited to certain niche areas. Although any possibility of India accruing diplomatic status to Taiwan seems a far-fledged possibility, India’s political clout and its support to Taiwan in international fora will certainly add to Taiwan’s credibility. As two democratic entities, both have the potential to forge meaningful ties and promote peace, prosperity, and stability in the region.
Dr. Kumari Mansi is a Ministry of Education Visiting Fellow at Taiwan Centre for Security Studies, Taiwan and holds her PhD from Jawaharlal Nehru University, India.
