27 November 2021, NIICE Commentary 7521
Bishnu Chaudhary
The conflict in Yemen has been described by the UN officials as one of the worst Humanitarian crisis the world has ever seen. For the last 7 years, there has been incessant fighting on the grounds, explosions raining from the sky and people dying indiscriminately every day driven by the injuries, starvation and the lack of basic necessities. According to the studies; in this country of 28 million, 24 million people are in direct need of Humanitarian Assistance. That means, every child is directly affected by malnourishment.
How it Began?
What is happening now in Yemen is the result of century-old religious and cultural differences. This deep-seated rage exploded only in the aftermath of the 2010 Arab spring. The spirit of the Mass-Movement that uprooted the long, authoritarian governments in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya transcended to Yemen too and resulted in the stepping down of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been in power for 22 years. The internationally mediated agreement called the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) with the goal of allowing other political factions within Yemen to share their views and drafting of the new constitution transferred the interim power to Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. He was later sworn in as the President after the election held in February of 2012.
Even under Hadi’s government, Yemen remained deeply segregated; GDP growth was disappointing, unemployment among youths sky-rocketed and the country faced acute shortages and price-hikes in basic goods like food, water and fuel. Houthi Rebels who are minority Shiite Muslim group in this Sunni majority nation, took charge of the capital Sanaa and the substantial parts of the northern belt in 2014, forcing President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to escape to Saudi Arabia and plunging Yemen into the current turmoil. A Saudi-led coalition, fearing the Shiite take over and Houthis links to Iran began bombing parts of Yemen in March 2015 with partial supports from the United States in their efforts to restore Hadi’s government. Despite a relentless air campaign and ground fighting, the war has escalated into a deadlock and has given rise to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
Why did the US get Involved?
The first point is US in Hadi and his government saw widely potential partner in their fight against terrorist groups like Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. When Houthis, the vocally anti-American groups chased Hadi out of the country, US sprang to the opportunity to get involved there. Second, US wanted to restore its relations with Saudis and other Gulf nations, all for its energy and security reasons. The US partnership with the Gulf States had soured amidst Iran nuclear deal in 2015, and also their dissatisfaction over US policies of abandoning Hosni Mubarak in Egypt during the Arab Spring, normalizing the relations with the Muslim Brotherhood that followed and leaving them alone and open to the Islamist attacks. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has also been a key buyer of American battle ships, fighter planes and ballistic weapons.
Iran and the Smell of Proxy Wars
The war in Yemen has handed Iran with great opportunity and motivation to showcase what it is capable of in the region. The crisis has proven highly advantageous to Tehran in its quest to bleed its regional rival Saudi Arabia, that too at very low cost and without being directly involved. This continued pandemonium has allowed Iran to consolidate its relations with Houthis, either it is through the Material supplies or the tactical trainings. The sophistication and the precision of the drone attack conducted against Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 clearly display the involvement of Iran. No matter how hard the Houthis proclaim the responsibility for that event, it isn’t too difficult to doubt them in terms of the caliber they possess and what they do not.
Chinese Interests
According to The Diplomat, China has not published any official Foreign Policy papers regarding the Yemen. Yet, the latest development shows Chinese inclination towards Pro-Saudi government of Hadi. On January 2016, President Xi Jinping visited and officially declared his support to Hadi’s government. This allowed China to increase their drone sales to the Gulf partners and start the first ever production of Chinese CH-4 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in Saudi Arabia. Further, on July 2017, China delivered its first batch of humanitarian aid to Yemen’s southern port city of Aden, the key areas of Hadi and his supporters. Apart from the security partnerships with the GCC coalition nations, connectivity is the key interest of China in Yemen. The stable government in Yemen would allow Beijing to link its southern portal city of Bab al-Mandeb Strait via the Horn of Africa and hence gain unprecedented access to the Middle East. This will also help China project its Military capacity in Middle East of thanks to the new Naval Base stationed at Djibouti.
Russian Role
Russia has maintained neutrality in a very careful way when it comes to Yemen. For example, it stationed diplomatic envoys in both Sana and Aden until the assassination of Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2017. Also, Russia has reportedly called for the halting of Saudi Air strikes and criticized American support to the Saudi coalition. Russia shows great importance to Iran as one of the decisive peace broker by vetoing a UN Resolution in 2018 that blamed Iran for providing Houthis with deadly missiles. Russia even abstained from UN Security Resolution 2216 which is very renowned when it comes to settlement of Yemen crisis, labeling it discriminatory and alienating Houthis and further escalating the chaos.
On the other hand, Russia has criticized Houthi efforts to block the passage of Petroleum exports through Bab el-Mandeb Strait and shown strong alliance to Riyadh and Oil pricing pact. Additionally, the Russia’s interest to build Military base in Aden and hence further its Red Sea expeditions plays another key role in Moscow maintaining balanced position when it comes to Yemen. Thus, some scholars like Peter Salisbury of Chatham House have guessed that Saudi Arabia could make use of Russian presence as backchannel moderator of talks with Houthis.
Current State of Misery and Status Quo
According to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), Yemen conflict has directly resulted into more than 112,000 casualties in which 12,600 are civilians. Studies by the United Nations paint even darker picture. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in its official reports have stated 233,000 deaths, in which 131,000 are the result of indirect causes such as malnutrition, insufficient medical facilities and failing infrastructure.
The most shameful thing according to latest UN data is the fact that more than 10,000 children have been killed or maimed. This makes almost 4 children every day.
UNICEF reported a funding gap of almost USD 300 million in its appeal for the Humanitarian relief in 2020. According to them, they have received only $237 million, whereas at least $535 million would be required to address the current cataclysmic situation.
Why Previous call for Peace Failed? What’s Next?
It is not that the initiatives for the peace process have not taken place. The striking thing is, each talks, agreements and even the UNSC resolution (Resolution 2216 particularly) have had their own insufficiencies and faltered in the process. UN-led Kuwait talks in 2016, which had the leadership of U.S Secretary of State John Kerry failed due to some uncompromising differences. The warring Houthis and Hadi government could not come to agreement over the security measures and the number of political seats each would command in the transitional government.
Similarly, Stockholm Agreement (December 2018) forestalled the battle at Hodeida, an important port in Red Sea and prevented the Humanitarian crisis to worsen even further. Nevertheless, even more inclusive agreement is sought for the long lasting peace.
The situation has changed over the course of time and new troubles have surfaced. For example; President Hadi’s calls for building any truce on the foundations of UN Security Council Resolution (2216) that calls for the Huthis to surrender, forgo their heavy weapons, return to their pre-2014 positions and to make safe passage for the government to Sanna seems out of question. As Houthis have amassed almost control over one-third of the territories, almost two-third of the population, and key choke points at the expense of dwindling Hadi government and his supporters, they are unlikely to agree to this Agreement.
Additionally, Houthis also need to abandon their overestimation of their position and maximalist approach. The peace deal between only Houthis and Saudi led coalition will not be enough. The agreement should also include the participation and interests of different warring factions like Southern Transitional Council (STC), Joint Resistance Forces and Tribal groups, local and a range of political parties, women and youth groups and other civil society. The battle for Marib in 2020 clearly shows that Huthis will face strong confrontation with or without Saudi presence and simply won’t accept the deal between them and Riyadh.
The international communities like UN, Security Council, EU, and especially GCC should take additional accountability towards bringing the disgruntled groups into peaceful understanding and end this embarrassing period of human calamity. The Thucydidean excerpts like ‘The stronger do what they can and the weaker suffer what they must’ should be proved obsolete especially in this age of liberal order amidst the proclamation of Fukuyama and Kant’s concept of Perpetual Peace.
Bishnu Chaudhary is a student at Department of International Relations and Diplomacy, Tribhuvan University, Nepal.
