22 October 2021, NIICE Commentary 7479
Masom Jan Masomy
Initially, while the Taliban recaptured the power on August 15, immediately after the US withdrawal on August 31, Afghans felt secured arguing that they enjoyed peace and security that came with the withdrawal of US and its ally’s forces. Taliban, from the beginning, have been ensuring Afghans, neighbouring, regional countries as well as western countries that Afghan territory neither would be a threat nor it would be used against any other country.
Despite Taliban’s assurance, the three heinous bomb blasts – two of which responsibility was claimed by the ISIS-K — on the Kabul’s airport and the Shia mosque attack in Kunduz province with the recent one being on Shia mosque on October 15 in Kandahar province killed dozens of innocents, marked a new wave of terrorism which has raised grave concerns internally and externally. The ISIS-K that accuses Taliban of partnering with US have already announced to fight war against Taliban’s new rule, and the group have carried out 31 attacks over Taliban most particularly in eastern part of Afghanistan. Within the two months of the new administration of Taliban dozens of Taliban troops including civilians have lost their lives. ISIS-K identically serves the Taliban war tactics as they served against US-led forces and previous Afghan government; it includes target killings, suicide bombers, roadside bomb blasts, direct offensive and so on. Hence, it is, to some extent, a serious challenge to ensure full security in Afghanistan for Taliban, if they don’t collaborate with the International Community and take timely action against regional terrorism. Furthermore, the killings of previous government employees are called for a subsequent increased concern despite Taliban’s general amnesty.
Taliban, however, don’t take ISIS-K as a serious challenge but neighbouring and regional countries; China, Russia, Central Asia, India and Pakistan are already worried about the new scourge of terrorism. Similarly, various Jihad groups have been operating in the region inspired by Taliban swift victory. Russia immediately started to focus on Central Asian countries security before Taliban’s seizure. Bordering with Afghanistan, Russia launched co-ordinately drills with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan under the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in order to prevent imminent threats to their respective territories. Likewise, other regional powers monitor the security situations and Taliban’s behaviour closely on how to react if the security of the region derails.
On the other hand, the strained relations between Taliban and Tajikistan are basically disappointing for the security of the region where terror groups can inevitably benefit it in case of their own advantage as proxy groups. As such, both sides are needed to follow the soft policy approach.
The grounded facts raise the alarm over disturbing insecurity in Afghanistan amidst the launch of heavy military offensive on cities against the previous government by the Taliban. The initial focus was to surround the previous government’s prisons in order to release their prisoners quickly. Doing so was expected to help make their war ranks stronger. However, Taliban didn’t have any particular strategy to separate the Taliban prisoners from those who linked to different crimes and terror acts. The doors would remain open in front of the prisoners after Taliban took control of a prison during violence between Afghan government and Taliban. So it served a great opportunity for Islamic State, Al-Qaida, Tahreek Taliban Pakistan and other terrorists’ affiliated-prisoners — arrested in the previous government military operations —to escape amongst Taliban’s prisoners and other criminals. These escaped ones can play significant role to destabilise the country by joining their related groups.
In addition, the Taliban are not as many as the previous government security forces, in order to control the entire territory in particular the countrysides. As such, terrorists groups can easily find safe havens for themselves for long time in those complex areas which are not at the Taliban’s hands for now. Meanwhile, Taliban have also released a statement to start clearance of those unknown people holding guns and those who misuses Taliban’s uniform and defame Afghanistan Islamic Emirate. Although it is expected to surely help them organize their security forces, it will create security gaps in many directions too.
Moreover, Afghanistan has badly been suffering economic burdens and the humanitarian meltdown is alarming not only for poverty but it can also equally affect its security as well. As the international sanction continues, Afghanistan may face an enormous wave of insecurity and instability that can threaten international peace and security.
The recent meetings of UK representative with Taliban in Kabul and the high level meeting of US and Taliban officials in Doha have been realized positively by media. The meetings focused on security concerns, terrorism, evacuation process and humanitarian assistance to Afghans. However, the western countries including US, UK and the International Community have still upheld to their stance on not recognizing Taliban, while all types of interactions and assistance to help the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan are conditionally on hold to as the group is yet to meet their pledges from the international community. Also, Pakistan and Qatar who remain close friends with Taliban are yet to recognize the incumbent government. Qatar hosts Doha-based political office for Taliban and has played pivotal role in the Afghan peace process and the US withdrawal urged other countries not to hurry on giving recognition to Taliban until Taliban build an inclusive government and respect human rights.
In order to prevent upcoming scourge of insecurity and economic meltdown in Afghanistan, Taliban are obliged to rethink and shape their policy and pay attention to priorities which are considered important for Afghanistan. Good governance, restart of the system stopped machine, extensive delivery of public services, restoration of economy, and also considering demands of contemporary generation for the country’s development and prosperity are essential.
In such critical situations, maintenance of Afghanistan in international isolation will not only lead the Taliban in troubles but the whole nation will suffer financially. Thus, if Taliban are seeking international recognition and economic support it requires to make trust-building efforts with regional and international actors. It could be the only approach to prove their rule in which the basic rights of all ethnicities are reserved.
Masom Jan Masomy is a Junior Assistant Professor at Afghanistan Academy of Sciences who writes on Afghan media, Afghanistan, South Asia and Central Asia.
