19 December 2020, NIICE Commentary 6614
Krishnaveer Singh Chahar
The world has moved from bipolar to a relative multipolar one. The threat of Nuclear Weapons that existed during the Cold War is still alive in international politics. The arms control treaties between the US and Russia did reduce the threat but did not eliminate it. Now, in this post-cold war era, more states have acquired nuclear weapons and many more have the capability to develop these weapons. Hence, the world seems to have moved into an uncharted territory. The uncertainty about the use of weapons and rising threats is rife. Under such circumstances and continuous threat of nuclear weapons, the US withdrew from Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019.
The INF treaty has been one of the most important treaties of the arms control regime. The US withdrawal from it has major implications not just for Cold war rivals but also for other states and regions such as South Asia and East Asia. Under the treaty, the US and the USSR agreed to eliminate ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles of 550-5500 km range along with launchers and support systems. This treaty covered all ballistic or cruise missiles of range 550-5500 km irrespective of their payload – conventional or Nuclear. Therefore, the withdrawal of the US from the treaty could trigger an arms race and possibly a nuclear arms race. The multiplicity of actors having the capability to acquire nuclear weapons is the reason why arms control is more important than ever. Arms control could be defined as putting limits on the development, deployment, and testing of weapons to reduce the chances of war between antagonistic states. This article focuses on two questions raised by the US withdrawal from the INF treaty. First, what could be the implications of the end of the INF treaty? Second, will the US withdrawal from the INF treaty trigger an arms race in South Asia?
The implications of the end of the INF treaty could be disastrous for the world peace. Though one can say a bilateral treaty like INF had become obsolete in the multipolar world, it still limited the arms race between two powerful states. Its fallout will not just have implications for Russia and the US but also China, India, Japan, and Pakistan. Now, with the treaty gone, both the USA and Russia can produce and deploy missiles wherever they can. One of the reasons the US administration decided of withdrawal from the treaty was that China is not bound by the treaty and is rapidly expanding its missile arsenal. The US thinks that staying in INF will have long term consequences for its allies and its interests. According to the US-China Economic and Security Commission, 95 percent of China’s missile inventory of more than 2000 ballistic and cruise missiles would violate the INF treaty. Viewing the continuous aggressive posture adopted by China, especially in its neighbourhood, it is an alarming situation for the US and its allies. China’s missile build-up could be of serious consequences for Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam, which have disputes with China on several issues. The US withdrawal from INF has alarmed China just like the US is alarmed by China’s rise and its military capabilities. With the INF gone, the US will be able to deploy missiles in East Asia. If the US deploys missiles in the region, it would be apt to assume that China will do the same. Even if the US does not deploy any missiles, its production of missiles would push China to follow. This would have two-fold implications. One, Russia might see China’s missile inventory buildup as a threat. If that happens then there is a probability that it will give rise to security dilemma. This would create a triangle of security dilemma among the US, the resurgent Russia, and the rising China. China’s rise and ensuing competition with the US and probably Russia as well will have implications for South Asia as a region that houses two nuclear-armed states – India and Pakistan. This brings us to the next question – will the US withdrawal from INF trigger an arms race in South Asia?
South Asia seems to be heading in a way where we could see an impending arms race. The worsening of relations between India and China and increasing bonhomie between China and Pakistan provides a grim picture of the region in terms of stability. The recent clashes between Indian and Chinese troops have increased the security dilemma between the two states. There seems to be a clear shift in Indian perspective vis-à-vis China. Earlier, there was a segregation of border issues and ties (economic) between the countries but now it seems impossible to separate the two dimensions of relations. This was reflected in the Indian Foreign Minister’s argument in his book, The India Way, “The border and future of ties cannot be separated.” According to him, realism should shape India’s China policy. If realism is to drive India’s policy towards China, there is a likelihood of competition and arms race in the region. Whatever China will do to strengthen its defence against the US or Russia, the security dilemma for India would increase and it would see China’s defence buildup as offence build up. This cannot be helped viewing China’s behaviour and its continuous claims on ‘Indian territory’. The rising insecurity will push India to improve its offensive and defensive power. It is to be noted that India has recently carried out many missile tests. Though it may be a coincidence, the timing of these tests is significant. For example, India has recently tested a Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV). This will help in development of hypersonic cruise missiles. India also tested a nuclear-capable missile, Shaurya which has a range of around 800km. It shows that India does not want to be left behind in the race of missile development.
Therefore, the security dilemma between the US and China is likely to heighten the security dilemma between India and China. As India starts building up its defence in response to China’s capability, it will eventually lead to building up of India’s offensive capability against Pakistan. India and Pakistan have a bitter history and are arch-rivals. With a history of turmoil, distrust, and insecurity, Pakistan will most likely try to counter India’s offensive capability by strengthening its defensive and offensive power. It would be in China’s interests to help Pakistan develop capabilities in order to counter India. China would like to entangle India with Pakistan to keep India’s focus from itself. However, the arms race in South Asia is likely to get more complicated than just a triangle of India, Pakistan, and China. India may look towards the US to counter China-Pakistan bonhomie. However, aligning with the US will entail losing its independent foreign policy which could be disastrous in the long run. It would not want to take sides in the arms race between Russia and the US in order to counter China. In South Asia, we mostly talk about the rivalry between India and Pakistan but if China is able to militarise the Hambantota port of Sri Lanka, it would add new dimensions to the arms race in South Asia. Though it seems like a far-fetched idea, one should not ignore the possibility.
Thus, the end of the INF treaty has wider implications not just for the Cold-war rivals but also other rising powers. Whether the US has committed a mistake by withdrawing from the treaty or not will be seen in the future. It is still too early to predict everything. However, initial signs paint a grim picture of the future. Much to the dismay of the US, China has already signaled that it is not interested in joining any multilateral treaty like INF. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying said that China opposes the “multilateralisation of INF treaty”. It means China and the US, are most likely heading towards an arms race. It seems that there are two triangles of security dilemma. First, it involves the US, Russia, and China. Second one involves India, Pakistan, and China. In both the triangles, China is a common threat and its willingness or unwillingness to put in a stable arms control regime will determine the future of arms race and the world peace.
