17 December 2020, NIICE Commentary 6601
Behzad Abdollahpour
The political atmosphere in Iran before and after US election has attracted the attention of most of the international and domestic analysts. Some people in Iran associate the black image of the US including implacable enmity and hostility with republicans – the behavior of Donald Trump towards Iran during his presidency has been a typical example corroborating this issue – and highlight so-called the white dimension of the US which imply diplomatic negotiation and panacea for the country’s economic problems. On the other side some reject such superficial stances and considered any interaction and dialogue with the US as a threat to Iran’s national interests. In this regard, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei takes the same stance and reiterates in most of his speeches that the US is not a reliable state. In his recent speeches on 3 November 2020, he maintains that “our policy toward the US is clearly set and does not change with the movement of individuals. It does not matter to us who comes and goes”. Therefore, the US presidential election won’t change Tehran’s stance towards Washington.
It seems that Biden will try to reenter Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), since he realized that Donald Trump’s maximum pressure would merely lead to maximum resistance from Iran. He also believes that Trump’s policies have pushed Russia and China closer to Iran which could increase Iran’s influence in the Middle East and beyond. But the question arises that which JCPOA Biden Administration would reenter? The nuclear deal drawn in 2015 or a new JCPOA with some amendments?
It is very likely that Joe Biden would continue the sanctions regarding human rights abuses, support for terrorism, and developing ballistic missiles. Drawing a comparison between the US National Security Strategy reports under Trump administration and Barack Obama’s – which suggest a detailed and reliable approaches of a republican president and a democrat president towards Iran – it is obvious that their policies towards Iran are the same but they resort to different tactics. Both of them consider Iran as a threat to US interests and are worried about Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities and its influence in the region. So it is predictable that the strategies of Biden administration toward Iran would be the same. As he repeatedly mentioned in his interviews with US news agencies that Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its adventurous activities in the region jeopardize US security and interests. For instance, in his interview with CNN on 13 September 2020, he stated that “I have no illusions about the challenges the regime in Iran poses to America’s security interests, to our friends and partners.” But, what differentiates Biden from Trump is that he would pursue smart tactics to bring Iran to the negotiation table. In order to do so, he would enlist the cooperation of his European allies to isolate Iran in international communities and get Iran to accept permanent limits on its nuclear and conventional military capabilities and containing Iran’s influence in the region. In fact, President Trump’s sanctions legacy against Iran and the sanctions he wants to impose on Iran till leaving the White House would be the bargaining chips at the hands of US to force Iran to draw a new nuclear deal which targets Iran’s nuclear and defense industries.
Considering these issues, Iran-US relations would be more complicated under Biden presidency. It is very likely that Biden would take soft stance towards Iran and go to any length to influence Iran’s next presidential election. Like Donald Trump, Biden would also send signals of negotiation with Iran to bring it to the table. But the difference is that unlike Donald Trump who pursue unilateral stance to get in touch with Iran, Biden took a mild and patient strategy and look at his other European partners to pave the way for negotiation, exactly the approach Obama took towards Iran.
Meanwhile, the future of negotiation between Iran and US would greatly depend on the next Iranian administration which will assume power about seven months later. But, what is obvious is that Trump administration has sown the seeds of distrust in the minds of Iranian people and authorities, which poses enormous challenges for Biden to approach Iran. Furthermore, he would face demands from Iran for compensation, should he try to preserve the deal. So as Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute and former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council mentions “The US won’t make unilateral concessions, so the likely outcome is either a stalemate or an effective renegotiation of the deal”.
Regarding the economic transformations after Biden assume the power, it should be noted that as Iranian supreme leader mentioned before the roots of all economic problems lies in domestic management and ask the authorities to focus on domestic issues and found solutions to solve them rather than focusing on external issues like the outcomes of US election. He also reiterates that resistance, devotion, and self- reliance are key words in Iranian political and economic literature and believes that these characteristics would help Iranians to overcome any potential threat and problem.
