17 December 2020, NIICE Commentary 6597
Dr. Gadde Omprasad
After the election of Joe Biden as US President and his selection of team, there are many discussions on how the US foreign policy is going to be, whether US will be gaining the lost ground in the International system, whether Biden will have pro-India policies or not etc. Before finding answers to these questions, we must understand that the election of Joseph Biden as US President is a significant event not only to the United States but also to the international system. It is important for two reasons, one, he will be becoming US president when the world is witnessing drastic changes in terms of power hegemony, where China is fast emerging as a global power and two, if he fails to contain China, it will lead to further decline of US hegemony over the world. It is going to be China as a main factor determining the US foreign policy during Joe Biden’s time. Let us see how.
One, in the first year of Donald Trump’s Presidentship of US in 2017, China declared two important goals for itself to be achieved by 2049 which includes becoming a modern socialist country and to emerge as a leading global power. These goals were envisioned to be realized through promotion of ‘Made in China’ to be visible everywhere, and to control the global markets, at the same time strengthening the strong hold of communist party over China. Ideologically it is a threat to principles of democracy propagated by US and its western allies. Securing a dominant position in global market would dethrone US as an economic hegemony. Declaration of these two goals marked beginning of a new cold war era in international system.
Two, to achieve these goals it is important for China to establish guaranteed supply of raw materials, energy sources, markets, infrastructure, investments, and security cooperation with various regions. As part of this, BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) was launched. Under which, New Eurasian, China-Central Asia-West Asian and China-Pakistan Economic Corridors directly connects China with European, Central Asian, South Asian and African countries through rail and road networks for trade and commerce. These corridors are also strategically significant for China to reduce its dependency on Indian Ocean and to address it’s ‘Malacca dilemma’. At the moment about 80 per cent of China’s total sea oil imports passes through Straits of Malacca. It has become strategically a weak point for China as the region is dominated by the presence of India and the US, which are pushing for Quadrilateral dialogue involving other regional powers like Japan and Australia. In the process, the foreign policy outlook of China concentrated around deepening its strategic relationship with countries like Russia, Iran and member countries of BRI, its activities are re-shaping the order of regions across the world.
Three, as per the ADB (Asian Development Bank) estimations, the infrastructure shortages in Asia requires over USD 26 trillion investments. Neither the US nor its allies have initiated any strategic programme to provide financial assistance for investments in these projects. Whereas China launched BRI projects are estimated upto USD 8 trillion, and have already executed upto the amount of USD 575 billion. More than 89 percent of contracts in these projects have been assigned to Chinese companies. Means investment returns would be pumped back to China. These investments will allow China to hold greater influence over partner countries in Asia-Pacific region and will act as major diplomatic connection in shaping domestic and foreign policies of dependent countries. In realist perspective, this will enhance Chinese hegemony over the world by reorienting world’s economy towards it.
Four, as the Chinese presence is growing in Asia, Africa and Eurasia, it no longer maintains a ‘low profile’ but desires to maintain equal relationship with the United States. The same was reflected more glaringly in the speech of Xi Jinping delivered at Chinese Communist Party’s 2013 Foreign Affairs Conference meeting where he stressed on “Striving for Achievement” indicating the transformation of Chinese foreign policy from keeping low profile, to dynamic and assertive goals. Accordingly, China’s actions in the external activities from a passive force which emphasized on taking defensive stand to the international events evolved into active, open and assertive policies. In tune with it, China started modernising military capabilities to protect security interests which include adopting and mending technology to establishing bases at strategically important positions. As a result, militarily assertive postures are visible in South China sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Africa and India.
Five, China has emerged as a manufacturing superpower. By end of 2018, more than 28 percent of global manufacturing output was generated by China, where as US share was just around 16 percent. Though at the moment China’s share in global GDP is just 17 percent, second to US’s 24 percent, but according to the projections by IMF released in August 2020, China will surpass to become biggest economy in the world by 2024.
Realising the danger coming from China outgoing US President Trump initiated trade war which has given some positive results to US. In 2018, it had about USD419 billion trade deficit with China, but by end of 2019 it had come down to USD345 billion. At the same time, the trade between the two countries has been decreased by USD77 billions from the time Trump took over President’s office in 2017 to the end of 2019. It will be potentially a major challenge for Biden to revive this trade figures without undermining US economic interests as according to World Trade Organisation report of April 2019, the trade war could lead to 17 percent decline in global trade and could erode global GDP up to 1.96 percent by 2022.
In these circumstances, it would be clear that US foreign policy under Joe Biden will not be much different from Trump’s policies and China will be a main factor. US would be emphasizing more on building partnerships and alliances. It requires India much more than India requires US, as without India’s support it would be difficult for the US to contain China.
