24 September 2020, NIICE Commentary 6006
Behzad Abdollahpour
Since the announcement of Iran and China’s comprehensive 25 year old deal, we have witnessed various responses from all over the world, ranged from downgrading the deal to extolling it due to its potentialities in generating great opportunities for people-to-people contact and promoting economic growth. However, when we look back in the historical relations of two countries we realize that the agreement is mostly a gesture of friendship between the two countries. The deeply rooted relations of Iran and China is like two old trees that grow separately, but their roots are fused and combined together in the soil. Since the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1971, Iran and China have had a pragmatic and business-oriented relations. Therefore, this agreement is a continuation of their past friendly relations which has been strengthened during these years.
25-Year-Old Agreement
The 25-Year Agreement, or Joint Statement on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Iran and China was announced on 23 June 2020 by Iranian authorities. The initial discussion of this strategic partnership was put before in 2016 when president Xi Jinping visited Iran, so it is not a secret pact. China has promised to invest up to USD 400 billion over 25 years and in return Iran would provide China with oil. The two sides are also committed to promote their collaboration in the areas of economy, oil and energy, defense industry and joint military maneuvers, space, infrastructures, higher education, tourism and healthcare. Furthermore, the deal would open several free trade zones in both countries and ensure people mobility, trade flow and cultural exchanges.
Enhancing collaboration on smart cities development, electrification of Iran’s railways, developing 5G technologies, and the development of Jask and Chabahar ports, are some important points mentioned in this comprehensive agreement.
Moreover, the new agreement would provide opportunities for Iran’s neighbor countries including Pakistan, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. The typical examples are development of Pakistan-Iran-Iraq-Syria “pilgrimage railroad,” Makran coastline – Iran’s outlet to the Indian ocean – and cooperation in corridors such as South-North (Chabahar port – Central Asia) and in South – West (Chabahar- Bandar Abbas-Turkey and Azerbaijan) which are among the notable initiatives the deal would focus on.
It’s Important for Iran
Iranian authorities are sanguine about the future of this long-term agreement and consider it a “win-win cooperation”. Since on the one hand, there was need to modernizing Iran’s oils gas sections and infrastructures amid US unilateral and strangulating sanctions, unprecedented collapse of Iran’s currency and deadly pandemic which were chocking Iran’s economy, convinced Iranian authorities to turn to China and be very optimistic about the future of this partnership. On the other hand, Iranian economic advisors argue that the country needs to increase its oil production to at least 8.5 million per day in order to remain a key player in the energy sector, hence, Iran needs Chinese funding.
Furthermore, one of the mission of this partnership is to increase collaboration in security areas which involves complete aerial and navy cooperation between Tehran and Beijing, with Moscow taking a central role. The Iran-China-Russia alliance established before in their recent joint exercise which signals Iran’s desire for greater presence in Northern Indian Ocean. Recently, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops (IRGC) to set up a permanent presence “in waters far away from the country”. He further notes that the Navy Force is a strategic force that should not be limited to the borders. Therefore, IRGC announced that it would establish a permanent military base in the Indian Ocean, which suggests the expansion of Iran’s defense doctrine – the expansion of Iranian military presence from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. In fact, in order to undermine Saudi-Israel-US alliance in the region, establishing Tehran-Beijing-Moscow alliance could offer Iran an opportunity to further enhance its regional power in the region and thereby offsetting the negative impacts of the policies taken by its enemies and rival countries especially US and Israel.
Another important section of this pact is to enhance the role of Iran in BRI. Thanks to Iran’s special geopolitical position, with the Strait of Hormuz at one side, and the Caspian Sea at the other side and crossing the strategic corridor (INSTC) from Iran covering the Arabian Sea could connect with Afghanistan and Central Asia through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Therefore, this partnership would be invaluable for the success of China’s BRI. Furthermore, Iran could use its strategic ties with China as a bargaining chip in any negotiations with some Western and Eastern countries regarding sanctions and expanding China’s presence in the Middle East.
From security and economic perspectives, Afghanistan and Pakistan are very important to both Iran and China in ensuring the successful implementation of BRI projects. Iran shares 959 km long borders with Pakistan and 936 km border with Afghanistan. Establishing security within these borders would be beneficial to both the sides. Iran has gone to any extent to encourage both countries to take serious measures in fighting with terrorism and drug trafficking which are rife in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Considering both Iran and China’s good relationship with the above-mentioned countries, this partnership would create anti-terrorism alliance in the West Asia to fight with extremism and trafficking in the region.
It’s Important for China
The existence of Jihadist and terrorist groups in Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq is giving serious cause for concern. In order to implement BRI projects in the West Asia, China needs stability and security in these regions. Iran enjoys significant political and security influence in these countries. Hence, a closer relationship between China and Iran could help Beijing to advance its vision for the ambitions of BRI.
In order to enter South and East Asia, China needs to increase its presence in the Strait of Malacca which is the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. India repeatedly threatened that it would close Strait of Malacca, in the vicinity of which it has strong military presence. Therefore, China would welcome any alternative route that would reduce its overall reliance on international sea lanes and maritime choke-points, particularly, Strait of Malacca.
