24 September 2020, NIICE Commentary 6003
Prakash Shah
The geographical position between China and India is such that on most boundary issues, China is placed at a relative height advantage as a result of the Himalayan range and India is placed at a disadvantage in the plains or valleys. China is clearly a more prominent military power than India, which cannot expect to win a war with China if one were to take place today.
At the same time, the 1962 scenario is thoroughly outdated since India is in a much stronger position now than it used to be in the 1962 war. For more than 25 years, India and China have an uncertain boundary line in several sectors of their conflicting territorial positions. But the present India-China conflict is different from the 1962 war. The Chinese have a much larger objective than subjugating India in military terms. For its objective is to become the world’s number one power, both in terms of trading as well as in political situation. They know that they cannot become the world power no. 1 without conquering the Indian trade market, which is potentially the biggest democratic economy in the world. They also believe that financial control of India’s banking and financial institutions will be necessary to achieve these objectives. Their first objectives are to subdue and financially dominate the smaller countries around their neighbourhood such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Myanmar. Without the domination of the Indian market and damaging the economic strength of India, these smaller victories will be of no great use. China has also got into a more vulnerable situation now with Trump and some other western leaders not persuaded by a lying China, opposing it in South China seas, Honk Kong, Taiwan and on international trade issues. The western countries are concerned about China’s domination of Asia, and are looking towards India to provide some kind of opposition to Chinese domination on the continent. Add to this the strong rumours that the Chinese population is getting smothered by autocratic communist government in China and may be looking for a way out. When China adopted a freer economic and trade policy, the western countries encouraged them to do so, thinking that the economic freedom will bring some changes in the political situation in China. Not only this did not happen, but China very cleverly abused international trade and economic rules and traditions by breaking them to their advantage, as a result of which China really did not have to break its political system to become the second largest economic power today.
With the emergence of Trump, Johnson, Abe and Modi, this realisation has become more normal and it is now the effort of these countries to oppose China, to force them to be fairer and more responsible in international trade and economic matters.
The first thing they did was to oppose China’s massive economic plan to conquer the world with connectivity on the basis of revival of the ancient Chinese silk route. They have given huge amounts of aid and promises of more to the smaller countries in its neighbourhood to win them away from a normal future. They have utilised promises of large amounts of resources transferred, which they will not be able to fulfil when the time comes. In a world economy that is contracting every day, due mainly to the epidemic, it is difficult to understand how China will find the finance to fulfil its promises to its small neighbouring countries. It is common knowledge that India is the only country which has common borders with all other SAARC countries, and no Chinese plan to connect the world can be implemented without India’s cooperation.
The first sign of India’s determination to remain independent came when India refused to join China’s connectivity plan to fulfil its ambition of the new Silk Route – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Chinese government decided to put military pressure on India by opening up the western and central sectors of the India-China boundaries to force India to agree with its objectives in Asia. However, when the aggression from China took place, almost the entire world took India’s side and without pronouncing as to where the border or LAC is, they criticized Chinese endeavours, expedited their arms supply to India and asked India to stand firmly against the pressure that China was trying to bring on India militarily. The Prime Minister of India in today’s conditions is made of sterner stuff and decided not to succumb to these pressures, knowing fully well that India cannot match China in a one-to-one war but India can make life difficult on the battlefield by providing a lot of punishment to the Chinese people.
The Chinese communist party has still not published statistics about their losses in Galwan, but when they start a war with India and a lot of Chinese body bags return to Chinese families, the government will be asked questions by the people of China and demand answers. At a time when the US and some western allies have taken a position against China at the south China seas, on Hong Kong freedoms, and on trade issues, and are defending Taiwan, any major dislocation within the Chinese people on PLA deaths cannot be treated by the party there with equanimity.
India is clearly not looking for conflict and would like to settle the dispute with China through talks. The latest political meeting between the two governments lasting more than 10 hours have come to the conclusion that both sides should have a more reasonable attitude towards the borders. Whether this policy will work or not will depend on the future. Nevertheless, India is determined to reduce its dependence on Chinese trade, finance, and investments, and has started a boycott of Chinese goods, which may take a year or two to succeed, but by all reports, it has a very large following in India.
There are some corporate leaders who make a lot of profit by importing cheap raw material and goods from China and make profits on value added processes who oppose the boycott of Chinese goods and so does the Congress party. But the reality today is that Modi got 55 percent of the popular vote in the last election and continues to be popular with Indian voters, despite its non-secular policy. The people of India will continue to support the current government and its policies against China and Pakistan.
