26 August 2020, NIICE Commentary 5889
Krupa Susan Varghese
The geopolitical corridor of the Indo-Pacific was the platform of various civilizational exchanges and where the Portuguese mercantile interest and naval power was projected. The naval power assertion was evident from their precise navigation capabilities and their naval bases in East Africa, Southern Asia and Southeast Asia. Simultaneously, the region provided opportunities for the Dutch, French and British mercantile interest. The term ‘Indo-Pacific’ has been under construction for a decade or more, and plays a significant role in the geostrategies of countries like India, Australia, Japan (along with some Southeast Asian countries), United States and France. Many scholars have debated the transition from the Asia-Pacific to ‘Indo-Pacific’ due to the importance of the Indian Ocean as well as due to India’s role. Also, the two important water bodies of the Indian and Pacific Oceans are assumed to be increasingly in confluence. The region is currently the abode of the great power projection where the US exerts its naval power through overstretching and rebalancing; China attempts to assert its power in the South China Sea; India projects its naval power and is also assuming the role of ‘Net Security Provider’; Russia has been extending its interest in the South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia; French interest is to promote French diplomacy and also to establish partnership with the regional countries whereas Australia tries to create balance and adapt to the ongoing competitions in the Indo Pacific between the US and China.
Threat Spectrum
The globalised network and the security vulnerabilities in the region creates a wide range of threat perceptions to India and the other regional players. The complex nature of the Indo-Pacific could be defined under two types of threats: Traditional and Non-traditional threat. The growing naval competition and territorialism between countries, failed states, the introduction of weapons of mass destruction and its proliferation have defined the traditional ambit of threats. The non-traditional ambit looks into the maritime terrorism, human and narcotics trafficking, piracy, small arms and light weapons trafficking, climate change and depletion of ocean resources. The non-traditional threats require a collective maritime cooperation among the Indo-Pacific countries to mitigate the challenges and such initiatives were held through MILAN (a step to provide a platform for interaction among the regional naval countries), QUAD, Indian Ocean Naval Symposium and Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) which focus on securing sea lanes of communication and safeguarding the trade routes.
Geopolitical Environment and Players
In the advent of newer technologies in the maritime domain, countries in the Indian Ocean Region has focused on redefining the security paradigm in the region. The emphasis on SLOCs security, energy transport, confrontations among the littoral states and constant threats from terror outfits has been managed through the concept of Operational Manoeuvre from the Sea (OMFTS). The regional players have tried to invest on the military modernisation of their respective countries as a means of power projection. This trend is prevalent with the Chinese form of military and strategic modernisation policies. The other regional progressions are the bilateral and multilateral regional alliances of countries such as Five Power Defence Arrangements, San Francisco System (also known as ‘Hub and Spoke’) and the US presence extending its support through transfer of technologies to the littorals of the region.
The few significant regional and extra regional naval players such as India, Pakistan, China, US, Japan, Australia, Russia, France, UK and Israel have tried to exert its interest on the Indo-Pacific theatre. India and Pakistan’s presence in the region is competitive in nature whereas China exerts power through asserting control over the Western Pacific and making its presence increasingly felt in the Indian Ocean region; US presence and hegemonic dominance is leveraged through alliances and partners as well as power projection through its bases in the region and exercises with littoral powers who are concerned with China’s rise.
Besides the military orientations these powers in the Indo-Pacific looks into economic dimensions as well. For instance, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have aimed at developing high quality infrastructure in the regional countries. China has also extended its financial assistance to countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka for building ports leading them into a ‘debt trap’ and dependence on China.
Future Trajectory and Vistas for India
According to Karl Haushofer who introduced the term Indopazifischer Raum (Indo-Pacific space) defined, “the geographic impact of the dense Indo-Pacific concentration of humanity and cultural empire of India and China, which are geographically sheltered behind the protective veil of the offshore island arcs”. This could be explained as his belief of witnessing an advent of influential powers in the region. However, this could be further extended to understand the utopian concept of the ‘Asian century’ which would include the powers like China, India and other littoral states in the region.
The Indian approach towards the Indo-Pacific was coined through the term SAGAR at Shangri La Dialogue (2018) by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It stood for addressing security concerns in the region and opening new platforms for growth in the region. The region is affected by the dichotomy of change and continuation due to different interest and perceptions on the concept of ‘balance’. India-US cooperation is mainly to balance the power equation in the region and also to check China’s growing presence whereas China opts to create a balance by limiting the US presence in the region. Through Quadrilateral Alliance or ‘QUAD’ between countries like US, Japan, India and Australia, the countries have discussed on various security related issues and also indirectly mentioned its resistance to China’s assertiveness in the region. However, the geographic location of India makes it the ‘nucleus in the regional dynamics’.
India is building ‘bricks’ for its growth not only through bilateral relations but also by developing its own capabilities to strengthen its operations in the Indian Ocean. The country aims to build a comprehensive radar mechanism for monitoring the ship movements and connecting other Indian radars at Maldives, Sri Lanka, Mauritius and Seychelles through its Coastal Surveillance Network and also sharing of information relating to vessels with the cordial countries through Information Fusion Centre (IFC). However, after decades of assuming the status of ‘net security provider’, India has started showing the signs of a responsible player by providing humanitarian assistance during natural calamities and benign experiments such as MILAN and Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS).
Conclusion
The Indo-Pacific is the ocean of opportunities and could be a theatre of future growth and warfare if the countries in the region do not follow the cooperative mechanism for common good. The competition in the region could raise the productive potential of the region, whereas conflict could undermine it. The triangular strategic combination of the three major powers – US, China and India which seems to be unrealistic could open new vistas of opportunities and progress. Moreover, various confrontations among the regional countries will neither bring prosperity nor the advent of ‘Asian Century’.
