22 July 2020, NIICE Commentary 5590
Sanchana Srivastava
After COVID-19 there is a risk the world could be yet more divided, conflictual and nationalistic. Despite the collective aspects of the struggle against COVID-19, the pandemic emerged in a context of governance disintegration and acute inequality. A critical Global Governance perspective helps elucidate how scale matters in relation to the COVID-19 crisis. Contrary to the aspirations of the rhetoric that accompanied the emergence of Global Governance as a process of confluence and cooperation among multiple actors, state and non-state actors, fragmentation has been a quality of this globalizing process from its inception. As Weiss and Wilkinson stress, unevenness of power has always been present in Global Governance, where ‘some states have been far more capable actors than other states and non-state actors’. In the wake of the current COVID-19 crisis, governance mechanisms at different scales demonstrate problems of coordination, uneven capacities and claims of authority.
The High Risk Scenario
Politics could turn virulent and severe as governments fail or struggle to speedily control the pandemic, to ease lockdowns safely, or to communicate and transmit clearly about what they are doing and why. Some politicians will resort to a discourse combining fear and tribalism. This will exacerbate discrimination at home – as seen in parts of the USA, China, and India – and jingoistic nationalism will also make international cooperation more difficult. Failure to cooperate internationally will hinder the fight against the virus. Closing down trade, requisitioning materials, or preventing supply to other nations will hobble everyone’s capacity to source adequate testing and treatment materials. The closing of borders and ripping up of international rules will make it ever more difficult to restart trade and travel, and extend the lockdown, heightening anger and anxiety. However, not all governments will be able to deliver. Governments will face gigantic debts. Many households and business were already heavily indebted before the crisis. Some will be able to raise funds through the capital markets. Investors will look for robust investment plans, competent leadership, and robust institutions. Most developing countries will be excluded. In short, a financial crisis is in the offing and without international cooperation; beggar-thy-neighbor policies are likely to deepen economic recession for all. Finally, sabre-rattling and war offer a diversion for politicians facing political and economic turmoil at home.
A Better Scenario
The world has managed extreme conditions before. Leaders of the 1940s reflected on their failure to cooperate after the First World War, how it drove the world into economic catastrophe (the Great Depression) and conflict (the Second World War), and resolved to do better. They started planning during the war. They knew that cooperation would be essential to rebuild afterwards and to redevelop a global economy within which each country could grow. So, too, global leaders must begin to plan post-pandemic cooperation.
Three tasks that confronted those leaders have their parallel today. First and most immediate is to fight the common enemy – now the virus – together. The second is political and geo-political. The third task is economic. Economic reconstruction had to deal with massive government debts and a broken global trading and investment system. Fighting the virus together requires cooperation on three things: research and knowledge; maintaining global supply; and warning of future outbreaks.
There has, however, been cooperation among scientists from China, the US, Europe, and among businesses (e.g., GSK team-up with AstraZeneca). Some of that cooperation was facilitated by the WHO, whose technical guidance and advice has been taken up by many countries. Although there have been export controls, Germany has flown Italian patients into its hospitals, and China sent ventilators and protective equipment to other countries. In Latin America, efforts are being made to keep borders open while fighting the virus together. Several countries are working together. The key thing now is to tilt this mixture further in the direction of cooperation. Economic reconstruction is the third challenge. After the Second World War, war-torn countries were desperate to get their economies restarted. Debts had to be written down. New flows of investment had to be found. The result was a massive reset delivering mass housing, health, employment and education. This may not be possible in 2020, but some changes occurring during the crisis could be built upon.
China under Scrutiny, Problems in West Asia and the Role of Israel
Far-reaching changes can also be anticipated in the realm of geo-economics and geopolitics. The world needs to prepare for a sea change. One nation, viz. China, is presently seeking to take advantage of and benefit from the problems faced by the rest of the world in the wake of the epidemic. China remains totally unfazed by the stigma that the current world pandemic owes a great deal to its negligence. More importantly, it is seeking to convert its ‘failure’ into a significant opportunity. This is Sino-centrism at its best, or possibly its worst. China now seeks to benefit from the fact of its ‘early recovery’. It wants to take advantage of the travails of the rest of the world, by using its manufacturing capability to its geo-economic advantage. There are enough reports of China’s intentions to acquire financial assets and stakes in banks and companies across the world amid crisis. Several countries apart from India, such as Australia and Germany, have begun to restrict Chinese foreign direct investment in companies and financial institutions in their countries. These countries recognized the inherent danger of a possible Chinese hostile takeover of their critical assets. In West Asia, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are set to face difficult times. The oil price meltdown will aggravate an already difficult situation across the region. There may be no victors, but Israel may be one country that is in a position to exploit this situation to its advantage.
Diminishing role of the US’s and Europe and Failure of International Institutions
The geopolitical fallout of this pandemic could be still more serious. One distinct possibility is that COVID-19 would effectively put paid to the existing global order that has existed since the late 1940s.The United States which is already being touted in some circles as a ‘failing’ state, will be compelled to cede ground. Weakened economically and politically after COVID-19 has ravaged the nation, the US’s capacity to play a critical role in world affairs is certain to diminish. The main beneficiary of this geopolitical turnaround is likely to be China, a country that does not quite believe in playing by the rules of international conduct. The existing international institutions such as the United Nations, the United Nations Security Council and the World Health Organization (WHO) are seen to have failed to measure up to the grave challenge posed by the pandemic. The UN Security Council is under attack for being slow in dealing with a situation that appears, at least on the surface, far graver than any military threat in recent decades. The WHO has been tarred with the charge of bias and of grossly underestimating the nature of the epidemic.
Conclusion
The post-COVID-19 world will be shaped by decisions being made in the crucible of the fight against the virus. The profound uncertainty about the virus and its trajectory, and about how other countries will respond, only magnifies the importance of leadership. At the very least, leaders across the world must cooperate to fight against the virus, collectively eliminating it. They must do so without being distracted by political differences, but by focusing on the extraordinary challenges that lie within their own borders. They must make the case to their citizens that security at home requires cooperation abroad. And finally, those that can will need to invest in neighbours and in poorer parts of the world, for only together will their economies flourish.
