28 May 2020, NIICE Commentary 4880
Namrata Hasija

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen reacted in a stern message on her Facebook account on 24 May 2020 after the announcement of the National Security Legislation for Hong Kong at the National People’s Congress (NPC) session by the People’s Republic of China. She said, “In face of the changing situation, the international community has proactively stretched out a helping hand to Hong Kong’s people and Taiwan will even more proactively perfect and forge ahead with relevant support work, and provide Hong Kong’s people with necessary assistance”.

Coming from Taiwan, the above message is very strong, as it leaves no doubt that Taiwan will, when it comes down to it, support Hong Kong in its fight against the mainland. It is even clearer when one looks at President Tsai’s public messaging – from the Yushan Forum of October 2019 to her address on Double Ten Day. At her swearing in ceremony, she emphasised that, among other things, the need of the hour was to build a “united democracy” that was not hijacked by ideology.

It seems that the people and businesses of Taiwan have been actively following their President’s lead. Taiwanese tea brands like Yifeng and Coco have printed messages of support to Hong Kong on their receipts. Universities across Taiwan like the National Taiwan University, the National Chengchi University and the National Tsinghua University all have Lennon walls, in support of both Hong Kong and Tibet, while the students of all these universities have organised rallies and demonstrations for the cause. Significantly, while university administrations have not joined in the protests, they have not been banned either. Many Chinese tourists have tried to disrupt the support rallies in Taiwan while, few Chinese students, who do not want to be named, said that they are being targeted and being called unpatriotic when they do not join in to disrupt the demonstrations. Few students who are sympathetic to the cause feel if they are recognised by anyone as being pro-Hongkong during the demonstrations their families will be targeted in China and thus, they chose to remain silent.

Taiwan’s government has also provided asylum to more than 5000 Hongkongers who fled to Taiwan in 2019 including people like Lam Wing-kee, who was arrested by Chinese authorities for selling politically sensitive books. Hongkongers were also the largest group of foreigners purchasing land and buildings in Taiwan last year as many seek to immigrate to the country amid Beijing’s violent crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. President Tsai’s recent statement on invoking Article 60, of the Laws and Regulations regarding Hong Kong and Macau Affairs, in case the National Security Bill is passed in Hong Kong has become a worry for Hongkongers. Article 60, gives people from Hong Kong and Macau an easier path to residency in Taiwan compared to those from other parts of China and if it is suspended, it would affect the ability of these people to stay. However, President Tsai also clarified that even if they go ahead with the change, Taiwan will keep providing all necessary help to Hong Kong. If the law, which gives people from Hong Kong and Macau an easier path to residency in Taiwan compared to those from other parts of China, is suspended, it would affect the ability of these people to stay

However, the Taiwanese government’s support seems genuine and would continue despite revoking this article as supporting Hong Kong even after China’s immense military pressure is not easy. In April and August 2019, Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets, for the first time in 20 years, crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait. Aircraft carriers similarly broke precedent and sailed through the strait in June 2019 and December 2019. In his speech to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang however, dropped the word ‘peaceful’ whilst talking about the unification of Taiwan. Meanwhile, the PLA Sichuan Academy of Fine Arts, published some images simulating taking over Taiwan by PLA.

China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) on 1 April 1 2020, undertook a 36-hour combat-oriented exercise near Taiwan. The aircraft engaged in tactical acrobatics, reconnaissance, early-warning and surveillance work, airborne strikes and other unspecified tasks. Again, on 15 April 2020, the PLAAF conducted a long-range military drill when Xian H-6K bombers, a Shaanxi KJ-500 airborne early warning and control (AWAC) aircraft, a Shaanxi Y-9JB (GX-8) electronic warfare and surveillance plane, as well as Su-30 and J-11 fighter jets passed through the Bashi Channel, a strategically pivotal waterway between the Philippines and the Taiwanese island of Orchid connecting the South China Sea with the western Pacific Ocean. For Taiwan, it is a do or die situation as with President Xi aiming for 2021 as the target for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, recovering all territories lost due to unequal treaties, is of direct consequence to Taiwan. After Hong Kong, Taiwan realises it will be the next target where China will try and impose ‘One Country, Two System’ theory which has already proved to be complete failure. The voters of Taiwan also realised that the only reason it is still a decorative term being dragged in Hong Kong is to attract Taiwan.

With mounting pressure from China, the Taiwanese government is the only country that has provided open support to Hong Kong with a little push from the US. Taiwanese public especially the youth will continue to support Hong Kong with or without any outside support and this force will be the deciding factor in the coming years whether one more democracy will bow down in front of the CPC or not.

Namrata Hasija is a Research Fellow at Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, India.