28 May 2020, NIICE Commentary 4877
Monalisa Dash
While the outbreak of COVID-19 has become a global burden, the rivalries between the US and China have increased tremendously. Over the last few years, China’s exponential rise as a super power has become a cause of concern for the US in particular and the multipolar world in general. The economic rise of the Dragon and the impressive increase in its military powers has challenged US’s dominance, which the latter sees as a “threat to its national interests”. Some international strategic thinkers and diplomatic scholars view this as a part of the 21st century’s “New Cold War”, wherein China is the new rival of the US, replacing Russia (the former USSR). The current ‘war of words’ between the US and China, which is also rife with economic and military skirmishes, has challenged international global politics in unprecedented ways.
Unlike the 20th century’s cold war between the West and East powers, led by the US and the USSR respectively, this emerging new cold war is not being fought over ideology - rather, it’s being fought over economy and military concerns. The relationship between the US and China, which was already deteriorating over trade issues, is now complemented by the disputes over the comments of Mike Pompeo on the origin of COVID-19 in Wuhan, a Chinese city. US’s efforts in dragging China to the World Health Assembly’s table on the issue of the spread of the novel Coronavirus, further escalated the strain in the ties between the two. Currently, the US tops the list among nations which have been severely hit by the impact of the deadly pandemic, leading to reeling effects on its economy. The death toll in the US has surpassed more than one lakh. Amid this crisis, Donald Trump’s recent offensive comments against China have created anger among Chinese authorities. This diplomatic spat and the direct conflict has led national security experts to fear a new “Cold War”, at a time of global crisis. According to Jacob Stokes, the former national security advisor, “US-China relationship are ‘the worst they’ve been in nearly 50 years’.” The current rivalries between the two have reached an all-time high since the end of the Cold War in 1989, after the collapse of former USSR.
Since Donald Trump took over power as president of the US, his approach towards the world has always been protectionist, while he also unilaterally withdrew from multilateral forums and groups, leaving the space empty for other powers to fill in. In this light, China has proactively tried to fill in the vacuum. From imposing several sanctions on Chinese products and firms to increasing customs duties and rejecting China’s 5G giant Huawei, America under Trump started a trade war against China in 2017. Naturally, the White House retaliated against China as a measure to protect its domestic and international interests. As part of its protectionist policy, US’s trade war had given a big jolt to China. Though both Washington and Beijing has reached a trade-related agreement in January 2020 over a fair trade between the two; an agreement that binds China to buy nearly USD 200 billion amount of American goods and services over next two years, unfortunately the current war of words between the US and China on the issue of the Coronavirus pandemic and a possible “cover up” by Beijing has again created mistrust between the two.
On the other hand, China’s rising political and military dominance in the Indo-Pacific and the South China Sea (SCS), where the US has a strong and active presence, is another topic of concern for Washington. China’s unlawful activities in the SCS are being seen as challenge to US’s global power and a ‘threat to its national security and global interests’. Since 2013, China has been eagerly spreading its influence through its strategically formulated Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its ambitious maritime silk route in the Indo-Pacific region. US’s efforts in looking for allies in this region to contain China’s influence is now the an important part of Trump’s new foreign policy. Apart from this, US’s open support to Taiwan in its political and diplomatic affairs and its conducting of a military exercise with Taiwan has irked China, who opposed this as violation of China’s ‘One China Policy’. In recent years, US’s withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership or the UN Paris Climate Change agreement show its unwillingness to work towards international cooperation or producing global responses. This move by America has given a golden chance to China to fill the void for a “global leader”.
Indian concerns
The eruption of several disputes between the US and China in recent years has diverted New Delhi’s attention. For India, both the powers are important and for these two powers, India is important. In a recent interview with Brookings India, the former national security advisor and secretary to MEA Shivshankar Menon said, “India sees China as its greatest strategic challenge and in the diplomatic confrontation between the US and China, New Delhi should retain strategic autonomy rather than a bandwagon with the US, which is withdrawing itself from various multilateral forums.” For India, both the US and China are strong trade partners. However, the China’s increasing influence and military presence in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region is being seen as a threat to India’s security and sovereignty. Keeping this in mind, India has been able to build mutual and cooperative relations with the US. US’s much needed military and defence assistance to India, and India’s alignment with the US, Australia and Japan under the QUAD, are examples of India-US cooperation to counter Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific, a region that holds strategic importance for India as a large share of its trade passes through the Malacca strait. India has always been an advocate for a sovereign, independent and peaceful Indo-Pacific, but China’s dominance and military footprints have woken it up.
In recent years, India’s move to get closer with the US is being seen with suspicions by Beijing. Both India and China share people-to-people contacts. Both are members of regional multilateral forums like BRICS and SCO. Though in trade, China’s unfair practices create irritants between the two. Chinese products flood Indian markets every year, which India finds as a distortion of its domestic economy. In 2019, after the informal meet between India and China at Mamallapuram in Tamil Nadu, a thaw was seen in an otherwise strained relationship. The meet had established some form of confidence between the two.
Unfortunately, during the critical months of COVID-19, China’s recent offensive military aggression along its border with India’s Ladakh region has irked India. On the other hand, India taking over as Chair of the World Health Assembly’s Executive Committee is giving it a chance to handle China’s aggression diplomatically and internationally. The Western world, including the US and the EU are looking keenly towards India’s decision on whether to go ahead for an independent enquiry on the birthing of the Coronavirus in a Wuhan Laboratory, something China has been denying. So, India’s diplomacy at the WHO and its bonhomie with the US will decide the future of its relationship with China.
