23 April 2020, NIICE Commentary 4216
Monish Tourangbam
When the United States entered into a truce with the Talibans and the Afghan government, hardly anyone was sanguine about the shape of things to come in Afghanistan. To many, the peace deal read and sounded like a term of surrender from the world’s most powerful military and the most resourceful bureaucracy, close to two decades later. Many commented that the US-Taliban deal was a curtain raiser for the more consequential and complicated intra-Afghan talks to follow. Well, even before the Taliban representatives were to sit down with the Afghan government representatives, an arrangement to release a massive number of Taliban prisoners was due. Was the Afghan government in a position to negotiate from a position of strength? The answer is-barely, after yet another fractured electoral outcome.
In a déjà vu of sorts, the two contenders, President Ashraf Ghani and his Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah, were locked in another quixotic battle of sorts, with both proclaiming victories, leading to two separate inauguration ceremonies. Unlike the last one in 2014, when then US Secretary of State had rushed to Kabul, and helped engineer the National Unity Government of Afghanistan, Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s quick visit to Kabul yielded no truce. On the contrary, following the failure to find common grounds between the two conflicting parties, the US government announced its decision to cut USD 1 billion in aid to Afghanistan in 2020, and potentially another USD 1 billion in 2021.
Is this a theatre of the absurd? No, this is Afghanistan, and fortunately or unfortunately, what happens in Afghanistan does not stay in Afghanistan. The great power tussles in this country and its aftermath, has always led to acute geopolitical implications for the region. Post the so-called peace deal and the breakdown of talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, the fighting has not stopped in the country. Violence has continued unabated, leading to sizeable civilian casualties. Besides the pitched battles between the Taliban and the Afghan government forces, the Islamic State in Afghanistan has also claimed responsibility for high scale attacks in the country that now faces new challenges because of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Herat province, in western Afghanistan, which shares porous borders with Iran, one of the worst affected countries in the world, has been the epicentre of the virus. With the fragile healthcare system across the country, and the huge number of Afghans who have crossed the borders, and travelled through crowded public transport to different parts of the country, health officials fear a public health nightmare in the country. A political system, which is in the midst of unrelenting tensions after a bitterly contest electoral outcome, is facing increasing international pressure to rise to the occasion, and put priority on combating the pandemic. Besides the government, given Taliban’s increasing population and territory control in the country, the Taliban’s Health Commission acquires importance in terms of announcing and implementing effective measures to contain rising virus infections and mortalities.
High-level meetings have been reported, including one in the residence of former warlord and prominent Afghan politician Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, to ease the tension between the opposing camps of Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. Meetings to find a solution to the political impasse within the Afghan government, as well between Afghan government and the Taliban will face technical challenges, as the virus outbreaks limits face-to-face meetings. The intra-Afghan talks has been going through tough hurdles, as differences linger over the procedure of the prisoners’ release and Taliban’s demand that the Afghan government be represented as just another party in the negotiation, certainly a means to undercut the influence that being a government brings. In this midst, the level of distrust between the two factions of the Afghan government seems to show no signs of abating. Both sides claim to support an inclusive and representative government in Afghanistan, but both parties’ versions of that inclusiveness seems to be have no meeting grounds. Prominent political figures including former president Hamid Karzai, former mujahideen leader Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf and former vice president Mohammad Yunus Qanooni have been reportedly meeting Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah to sort out differences and arrive at a political solution.
Until now, both the Afghan government and the Taliban have released a certain number of prisoners to initiate the massive prisoner release, which remains the bone of contention. As the stakeholders shift towards virtual meetings, and as authorities start showing concern of a dangerous scenario of COVID-19 outbreak in Afghan prisoners, which are anyways notorious for their unhealthy living conditions, the peace talks stand at a precipice. The situation has made the Afghan government also initiate the release of certain non-Taliban prisoners, mostly women, juvenile and sick people because of the fear of an unmanageable virus outbreak in the prisons.
These are critical times for Afghanistan, and COVID-19 outbreak made it more uncertain. Afghanistan, in the midst of an unfinished war and a weak healthcare infrastructure is already up against odds, in fighting the virus. In addition, there is a Taliban more emboldened than ever, after signing the peace deal with the Americans to extract concessions while negotiating with the Afghan government and there is an American administration dangerously eager to strike deals with the Taliban and withdraw with an eye on a re-election campaign. Hence, it is imperative for the Afghan government, more than ever before, to quickly get its act together and not let the country fall into an abyss yet again. Indeed, the water is muddy and the future looks hazy. But then again, this is Afghanistan. The land of the Great Games, the graveyard of empires, modern yet ancient, a republic but with Afghan characteristics and within the umbrella of an Islamic Emirate, one of the most ethnically diverse countries where getting the politics of ethnicity right is often the delicate balance of peace. It is a roundabout of South, Central and West Asia yielding to optimistic visions of trade and transit but then again, there often lurks a fear that others will find a way to go around it, in the absence of peace and stability in the country. Is this a theatre of the absurd? No this is Afghanistan.
