10 April 2020, NIICE Commentary 4025
Dr. Gouri Sankar Nag & Ayush Mazumdar
Crisis of any propensity and intensity provides opportunity of equal worth, just like the World War II provided opportunity for two superpowers to emerge out of the ashes of human depredation and loss. At this point of time, the global society is going through a similar tumultuous crisis but of a higher magnitude and of a nature which is complex and invisible just like the President of the United States would like to dub it ‘the invisible enemy’. The sweeping conflagration of COVID-19 all over the world engulfing thousands of people irrespective of social dimension is a palpable peril of gargantuan proportion. Therefore, the situation is highly volatile and international politics has become highly unstable by the rapid surge and spurt of the contagion. However, this threat of gigantic proportion also provides veritable opportunities of equal worth particularly for the leading powers like India if it can intelligently foist a discourse in favour of her universal humanitarian concern and commitment to fight the medical emergency even within the rubric of her limited resources and capacity.
On 7 April 2020, the President of the US, made a statement in response to India’s ban to the export of Hydroxychloroquine. The response was accordant of Donald Trump’s image, “I would like Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ease those restrictions since we have a good relation with him”. He also cautioned that retaliation could follow if India failed to do so. This usage of word ‘retaliation’ by Trump raised eyebrows all around. The next day, the Indian Government allowed the export of Hydroxychloroquine based on humanitarian grounds.
The alacrity of acquiesce on India’s part, however, drew adverse flakes from various corners yet the quid pro quo hypothesis could rather bolster India’s position in the long run. This pandemic situation is so challenging that not only it would take a tough test in terms of struggle on our part for prior safeguard as we are already much exposed, but also it would put us through another rigorous test of steering clear in this given tough international scenario. Historical analysis has conveyed that any nation’s response to a crisis is two-fold; either it thinks internally making it largely inward-looking in orientation or it thinks externally, thus becoming paranoid and suspicious of others. However, there is another way than that, of acting local and pressing Global.
India’s response to this global pandemic can determine what would be our international status for times to come. Through this crisis, we can emerge as a global power indoctrinated with the values of democracy, ethics, responsibility and justice. India can emerge or at least, it can legitimately put claim as the radical alternative, the world has been waiting for a long time, to a hyper-realist state capitalist power. This is India’s rare opportunity to gain lost spheres due to China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) or China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Centring around BRI, there is of late a discourse that it resembles the policy of Subsidiary Alliance that the colonial powers used in India which resulted in debt trap. India’s medical diplomacy and her ability to reach with humanitarian care to address the ongoing pandemic is a critical factor to stand tall as the global saviour by boosting its pharmaceutical productivity and assuming a prominent position in the global supply chain.
India has been a front-runner when it comes to tackling global problems ranging from climate change to SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). The US, till the sole superpower under Trump, has indicated to roll back on major global reforms. It does not bode well for guiding the global community with rule-based approach and sufficient magnanimity as a sustainable force in navigating and shaping the interactions for the rest of twenty first century, and which is capable of generating global consensus and collective action. In sharp contrast to the US’s earlier engagement posture on questions of global security, its inward-looking and egotistical unilateralist posture under Trump always bent on calculating transactional costs of participation in multilateral forums for solutions and initiatives is seemingly out of sync with broader role playing like the Global referee.
However, China has been trying to be the successor of the US, and trying as best as it can to intrude various influential forums like the UN agencies such as WHO to influence decisions and to mobilise opinions worldwide. China has not only come up with its agenda of a robust connectivity by means of BRI, but it has also floated the concept of ‘Health Silk Road’. This concept is a new selling point for its burgeoning influence in global network since it has the possibility of graduating into a ‘new Marshall Plan’. The trade war with the US and the beginning of the COVID-19 infection from Wuhan has dented the momentum for China to scale itself up against the sole superpower. It’s precisely this juncture that provided India with the veritable opportunity to seize the day.
China is trying hard to gain its lost sheen by playing the card of health diplomacy as it has been exporting essential healthcare components to many affected countries such as Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Australia and others. In this process of Global trade, China has already amassed USD 10 billion globally through its exports. However, Chinese manufacturing ability has got dented by the faulty products it exported which led countries like Netherlands and Australia to send those products back. China is an economic and military power to reckon with. However, what it lacks is compassion, which is explicit all around through its global activities especially in Indonesian Natuna Island where it is encroaching on the coastal waters of the indigenous fishermen.
India is also an economic and military power but markedly it has compassion, which can propel India in the direction of global power heterogeneity composing of multipolarity and not bi-polarity or unipolarity hegemony. The superpower that emerged from the remnants of Cold War is in a situation of crisis once again. In fact, the clouds of imminent recession are visible and the ability of Trump to rejig the American economy would determine his re-election chances. The coercive posture to China to not allow the latter to challenge its hegemony, is according to V. K. George, ‘a retreat in slow motion’. But the problem is that if the American world view is too conservative to appreciate the necessity of change, the Sino-centric world view is too belligerent to be congruent with soft power, hence not in conformity with the thread of liberal internationalism.
The failure of OPEC+ and the plummeting global crude oil prices has already threatened the American hegemony over global oil market. The health setup of the US is facing a severe crisis due to increasing need of medical supplies to fight the worsen COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, China has been able to control the situation, hence, this pandemic is a litmus test for the US. COVID-19 has thrown the gauntlet as a different kind of warfare altogether and military arsenal or the expanding ambit of strategic security, as through NATO can never be a solution to it.
The global economy is currently integrated with manufacturing units all over the world. The global supply chain plays an important role. Thus, for any country to have a majority chunk of the global supply chain is very crucial. India can occupy that global supply chain of pharmaceutical production in the world by showing an ingenuous amalgamation of industry and compassion. The great Chinese strategist Sun Tzu once said that in the midst of chaos there is opportunity and this is India’s opportunity that it needs to hold.
