5 April 2020, NIICE Commentary 3925
Dr. Hoimonti Barua
The COVID-19 boutade has propelled the global economy into a recession. Bangladesh has had a steady economic growth rate until the end of 2019 and the Asian Development Bank had forecasted it to be 8 percent in 2020. The country’s economic growth trajectory exhibited every potential to rise as a middle-income country by 2024, until the whole world has been brought to a standstill by the deadly COVID-19 crisis. The ramifications of this setback will dreadfully affect Bangladesh in multiple ways. Although relatively sluggishly, yet, certainly the pandemic set foot in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is over populated with poor health facilities which make the people of the region vulnerable, exposed and impuissant to this invisible enemy.
COVID-19
The COVID-19 or the Novel Corona Virus, a fatal infectious disease originated from Wuhan, Hubei province of China in November last year killing more than 3000 people in the country. The apprehension is due to the rapid shift of the outbreak epicenter from China to now Europe and the United States having maximum mortality rate. It has stunned the world with its magnitude posing existential threats to humankind pushing to a hiatus in regular activities and any manner of movements. History has proven repeatedly that pandemics unquestionably have had long term impacts in people’s lives and the COVID-19 will not be an exception.
An uncontrolled epidemic can decimate the economy and the moral health of a nation and severely compromises national security. In all certitude pandemics have socio-economic repercussions in a community. The continuing epidemic has had numerous consequences to international relations. At this juncture, the COVID-19 unsympathetically reminds us that pandemics are biological, political and global in nature and have reverberations on all. According to Lee Jong-wook, former Director-General of the World Health Organization, “pandemics do not respect international borders”. The ferocity of such diseases transcends territorial frontiers causing pervasive trepidation that obscure reality.
Socio-Economic Impact on Bangladesh
Experts like Brian Wong opines, “a global recession has hit which is likely to be worse than 2008 and it will bring about political uncertainties along with critical non-traditional security threats. The pandemic is going to end at its own course…far reaching for a country like Bangladesh”. The economy of Bangladesh is based fundamentally on private sectors, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), remittances, export earnings, ready-made garment (RMG) sectors, and leather and shrimp export dependent on the European Union (EU). China is the biggest trading partner and raw material provider. Industries are principally reliant on imported raw materials, the supply of which has been acutely affected. Rural livelihood likewise remains strongly dependent on agriculture. The emergence and rapid proliferation of COVID-19 has affected the transmission channels of a progressively globalizing economy of Bangladesh. The export outflow has stopped; import inflow particularly of raw materials is facing hold-ups; out-migration, tourist arrivals and departures are effectively ceased; circulation of investments are facing growing precariousness, disintegrating the various other interconnected sectors.
To control the rapid spread of the virus among communities, most countries around the world, especially the developed nations like China, United States, EU and the United Kingdom are observing extensive lockdowns at a community level as well as at the international borders. The COVID-19 has forced companies to shut down as part of social-distancing action indefinitely ceasing global business activities.
According to the report by the Center for Global Workers’ Rights of Penn State University and the Worker Rights Consortium, around 58 percent of clothing suppliers of Bangladesh have terminated operations. International buyers cancelled 72 percent orders, declined to pay the production cost of about 91 percent and repudiated to compensate the cost of raw material purchased by the suppliers. There is an absence of production and lack in demand of non-essential products. The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) revealed the product cancellation of worth USD 3 billion by the partner fashion companies. The BGMEA believe the actual figure would be higher than the current figure. Furthermore, the aviation sector is suffering a job loss by 9 per cent and the salary and benefits cuts is affecting more than five thousand employees. The closedown of tourism and travel on the other hand is likely to wipe out USD 190 million from the aviation operators.
Similarly, the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), a wing under the Ministry of Health, Bangladesh requested citizens to avoid ‘mass public gatherings’ but it has brought severe consequences. The food crisis looms at large as the COVID-19 forces farmers to stay idle. According to Dr. Arif Hussain, Chief Economist and Director of Food Security Analysis and Trends Service at United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in Rome, the economic consequences of this disease could end up hurting more people than the disease itself”; and this applies to Bangladesh to a great extent. Urban food markets depend on farmers and farmers depend on the transfer of goods through transport system. Decreased movement of goods will give rise to unequal distribution of cost between the farmer and the vendor leaving the farmers more vulnerable in terms of financial gain. Restrictions on movements and ‘basic aversion behaviour’ by workers could impede farming. Quarantine measures limits access to market, and supply chain disruptions in food availability. On the demand side, loss of purchasing power could change people’s eating patterns, reduced capacity to purchase or panic purchases of food that could break the supply chain. Trepidations related food security may give rise to inflation, limited access to items and food-riot. As a result, countries with high levels of food insecurity are generally more susceptible.
Moreover, health-care sector of Bangladesh is incapable of tackling the COVID-19 leading to severe health crisis. Bangladesh being extremely densely populated nation makes preventive measure like social-distancing and home-quarantine a difficult practice. As of 2016, there were 9 million urban poor, mostly living in make-shift shelters and slums which is estimated to increase by 2030. In the event of a deadly infectious disease ready to multiply, daily wage workers, garment labourers, homeless, vendors and the refugees etc., are most vulnerable groups to be hit.
Lack of preparedness led to the instantaneous germination of the virus in the developed countries like China, Italy, UK and New York. Insufficient financial resources coupled with poor healthcare facilities and unhurried preparedness to fight against COVID-19 will bring unfathomable challenges in front of the country. The backlash of COVID-19 is likely to be felt throughout the Bangladeshi society, for example: closure of industries, job loss; increased unemployment, increase of miscreant activities, distressed mental health and over all societal discontent.
Conclusion
Pandemics take human lives and affect societies as it has profound consequences. At various levels, laidback approach of the government of Bangladesh will raise critical questions about the preparedness to fight the pandemic. A nonchalant approach of the lawmakers and healthcare experts to enforce early disaster management mechanisms puts the country at the brink of risk ready to explode any moment. Any miscalculation or error will impact Bangladesh’s socio-economic standards. The announcement of a stimulus package to fight COVID-19 by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was essential because the best approach at the moment is to observe preventive measures, prepare healthcare facilities with proper equipment, arrange disaster relief mechanisms for the vulnerable and anticipate the socio-economic repercussions without giving up hope.
