7 July 2025 , NIICE Commentary 11162
Mira Rai & SoHee Park
South Korea and the Global Authoritarian Wave
Democratic backsliding has emerged as a global phenomenon in recent years, notably subverting the third wave of democratisation. South Korea is no exception to this disturbing degeneration of democratic norms and institutions around the globe today. As is widely known, South Korean society previously experienced a ‘democracy’s near miss’ in 2016, marked by waves of mass protests and the subsequent impeachment of then-President Park Geun-hye, who was accused of corruption and abuse of power. The declaration of martial law last December marked another episode of democratic decay, and the nation now faces a critical test of democratic resilience once again.
In this article, we examine the events leading up to the current presidential election in South Korea, beginning with the attempted autogolpe by former president Yoon last December. We then provide a brief overview of the presidential election, including the leading candidates and the outcome, and explain the growing polarisation and extremism within South Korean society that shaped such an outcome. In conclusion, we will examine the broader implications of the event regarding prospect policy decisions.
The First Martial Law Declaration in 45 Years
On December 3, President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law – a measure not imposed since 1979, marking its first imposition in 45 years. The justification Yoon offered was the persistent deadlock between the executive and legislative branches of government, which he contended was the result of deliberate political manoeuvring by the opposition Democratic Party of Korea, conspiring with communist factions in North Korea and seeking to subvert South Korea’s ‘liberal democracy’ – the word ‘liberal’ seemingly connoting ‘anti-communist’.
Following the abrupt declaration, police forces began to surround the National Assembly building in Yeouido, Seoul. This action was carried out at the President’s behest, as the National Assembly holds the constitutional authority to revoke martial law. According to Article 77 of the South Korean Constitution, if the National Assembly passes a resolution demanding the repeal of martial law by a majority vote, the President is legally bound to lift it.
Around midnight, martial law troops attempted to enter the National Assembly building via helicopter, with the main entrances still barricaded by police. Hundreds of citizens rushed over to the National Assembly as soon as they heard the news, clashing with police and soldiers to let lawmakers inside the building and help stop the crisis. Several lawmakers, including National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik and Democratic Party leader (Now President) Lee Jae-myung, climbed over the walls to gain entry into the legislative chamber. All gathered, they proceeded to vote on a resolution demanding the immediate repeal of martial law, which passed with unanimous support from all 190 members present that night.
Impeachment and the Early Presidential Election: Polarisation Looming Large
The Constitutional Court unanimously upheld the impeachment on April 4, 2025. Consequently, an early presidential election, also known to Korean citizens as the ‘rose election’, took place on June 3, with early voting taking place from May 29 to 30. The leading candidates were as follows: (1) Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea, (2) Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, (3) Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party, and (4) Kwon Young-guk of the Democratic Labour Party. The race was narrowed to a two-way contest between Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo. It is pretty ironic, as the latter represents the same party to which President Yoon belonged and bears clear political responsibility for both the attempted insurrection and the impeachment crisis.
In the presidential election held after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, then-candidate Moon Jae-in secured a decisive victory, earning 41.08 per cent with Hong Jun-pyo in second place at 24.03 per cent. However, Lee Jae-myung held a commanding lead but still fell short of securing over 50 per cent, ultimately finishing with 49.42 per cent. Despite emerging from the former president’s shadow, Kim Moon-soo maintained significant public support, earning 41.15 per cent of the vote. The deepening affective polarisation and the growing traction of far-right sentiments – most notably marked by Christian fundamentalism and election fraud conspiracy – in the current political landscape shaped the context for the ‘unfaltering commitment’ of the right-wing supporters.
On June 3 night, the newly elected president outlined five key missions (사명, 使命) of the administration: (1) addressing the insurrection, (2) recovering the economy and improving the ‘livelihoods of people’, (3) ensuring the safety of people, (4) fostering peace and co-existence on the Korean peninsula, and (5) integrating the fractured society into one. While each of these initiatives is critical in revitalising the nation, their completion hinges on the fifth mission, as nearly half the population continues to support the now-opposition People Power Party, even after the democratic crisis incited and supported by its members.
Prospects
This section examines the prospects for South Korea’s domestic and foreign policies in the aftermath of recent democratic upheaval. A significant portion of the South Korean public believes that former President Yoon Suk-yeol should have prioritised the power of persuasion over the use of martial law. While his impeachment is widely regarded as a victory for democratic accountability, it simultaneously revealed the underlying fragility of South Korea’s democratic institutions. The episode underscores the persistent challenges the nation faces in achieving democratic consolidation and political maturity.
The newly elected leadership in South Korea must now prioritise political reforms, particularly building consensus to revise their ancestral 1987 constitution, which concentrates excessive power in a single five-year presidency. South Korea’s entrenched political culture requires urgent reform, as the nation continues to grapple with a deeply polarised political landscape characterised by retributive actions, partisan vendettas, and profound animosity between opposing parties and their respective supporters. The ideological divide between progressive and conservative factions has intensified to the point of exacerbating broader societal conflicts. In the absence of comprehensive political reform, South Korea risks significant deterioration in its socio-economic trajectory. This concern is further compounded by pressing demographic challenges, including a persistently low birthrate and the rapid acceleration of population ageing. These trends are projected to substantially increase social welfare expenditures while concurrently reducing tax revenues, thereby threatening the long-term sustainability of South Korea’s economic and social systems.
Likewise, South Korea’s foreign policy and national security challenges are more crucial than ever before, particularly in the context of Trump's policies regarding the great power relations. Under such a scenario, East Asian allies including South Korea may hold weakened strategic importance for Washington, despite South Korea continuing to prioritise its alliances with Washington at the apex. In addition, Trump’s tariff wars coincided with the worst possible timing, during South Korea’s ongoing political crisis following Yoon’s impeachment and the snap presidential election. Despite being a longstanding ally of the United States and a party to a bilateral free trade agreement, South Korea was subjected to a punitive 25 per cent tariff rate and faced additional pressure to increase its financial contributions toward the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed on the peninsula. In response, the South Korean government adopted a cautious “wait-and-see” strategy regarding trade negotiations, intending to utilise its invitation to the G7 summit in mid-June as a diplomatic platform to request an extension of the tariff deadline.
Furthermore, the defence and security ties between Russia and North Korea pose a significant national security concern for South Korea, which should be carefully considered alongside critical economic issues by the elected leader. As Seoul has no room for policy misjudgement and rapid U-turns, given the magnitude of the security threats and challenges, these concerns should be given due consideration. Finally, South Korea’s strategic location at the crossroads of major powers presents both unique challenges and key opportunities in the Indo-Pacific. For future leaders of South Korea, this presents a chance to enhance diplomatic influence by leveraging geography to strengthen alliances and pursue a more inclusive, globally engaged foreign policy.
Mira Rai is a Research Associate at NIICE, and she is currently pursuing her Ph.D. in International Relations at Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Korea. SoHee Park is pursuing her M.A. in Political Science at Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Korea.
