16 December 2024, NIICE Commentary 9781
Abhinav Dhakal
Nuclear weapons, which release energy explosively through fission, fusion, or a combination of both, have profoundly shaped global military strategies and geopolitics since their development. Fission-based nuclear weapons, commonly known as atomic bombs, release energy through nuclear fission, while fusion-based weapons, or thermonuclear bombs, use nuclear fusion. These weapons generate immense explosive power, typically measured in kilotons or megatons, to represent their TNT-equivalent yield. For example, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, using just 64 kg of enriched uranium, released an explosion equivalent to 15 kilotons of TNT. The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the only use of nuclear weapons in warfare, resulting in an estimated 150,000 to 246,000 deaths. Since then, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted, mostly by the United States and the Soviet Union, leading to severe health and environmental consequences such as cancer, genetic defects, and radioactive contamination. The largest test in history was the Soviet Union’s Tsar Bomba in 1961, which had a yield of 50 megatons, more than 3,300 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
Nuclearization in Southern Asia
Currently, Russia possesses the largest confirmed stockpile of nuclear weapons, with over 5,500 warheads, followed closely by the United States with approximately 5,244. Together, these two nations control nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear arsenal. China, meanwhile, is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities, increasing its stockpile by 90 warheads in just one year, bringing its total to 500 as of January 2024. China’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) stockpile, which currently stands at 238, could surpass those of both Russia and the U.S. within the next decade. Despite this, China’s arsenal remains much smaller compared to Russia and the U.S., with both of these countries possessing thousands of nuclear warheads. Other nuclear-armed countries such as the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea also contribute to the global complexity of nuclear proliferation, with these nations collectively controlling over 12,000 nuclear weapons.
As part of the ongoing global arms race, India has recently advanced its nuclear missile capabilities with the successful test of an upgraded Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on March 11, 2024. This upgraded missile now incorporates Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, allowing it to carry multiple warheads, each capable of hitting different targets. The Agni-V’s long range, which can reach all of China, significantly strengthens India’s nuclear deterrence, especially amid regional tensions with China and Pakistan. Despite maintaining a “no first use” (NFU) policy, India’s nuclear arsenal, currently estimated at around 172 warheads, continues to evolve as it works to keep pace with China’s expanding missile and warhead capabilities.
Similarly, Pakistan has been significantly expanding its nuclear arsenal, developing both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Key advancements include more sophisticated missile systems and nuclear-capable submarines, aiming to ensure a credible nuclear deterrent against India. Central to Pakistan’s nuclear strategy is “full-spectrum deterrence,” which includes the development of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) to counter India’s conventional military superiority. However, this approach raises concerns about nuclear escalation, as the use of TNWs could lower the threshold for nuclear conflict. Pakistan’s nuclear program is driven by its perception of India’s growing military capabilities, particularly its nuclear and missile advancements. This ongoing nuclear arms race between the two nations, compounded by issues like the Kashmir conflict, underscores the volatile security dynamics in the region. Pakistan holds an estimated 170 warheads.
In 2023, global spending on nuclear weapons reached an all-time high of $91.4 billion, a 13% increase from the previous year, driven largely by rising defense budgets in the United States amidst geopolitical instability, including the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. remains the largest spender, allocating $51.5 billion, while China and Russia are the second and third largest, with budgets of $11.9 billion and $8.3 billion, respectively. Other nuclear-armed nations, including the UK and France, also reported increases in their nuclear budgets, reflecting a global trend of greater investment in nuclear capabilities. The spending by countries like India, Pakistan, and Israel is harder to assess due to the lack of transparency regarding their nuclear programs, but ICAN (International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons) research underscores a concerning pattern of rising nuclear expenditures worldwide.
Over the past five years, nuclear weapons spending has grown by 34%, equating to an additional $23.2 billion. Experts warn that, if this trend continues, annual global nuclear spending could exceed $100 billion. This increased investment comes at a time when the number of active nuclear warheads has also risen globally.
Emerging threats and risks in Southern Asia
The nuclearization of Southern Asia poses several acute threats due to the region’s volatile security dynamics. The proximity of nuclear-armed states India, Pakistan, and China where these countries have contested borders and histories of violent confrontations. This heightens the risk of escalation and the threat of the use of nuclear warheads. Similarly, geopolitical changes, such as the volatility of India-China borders, coupled with advances in military technologies like ICBMs and tactical nuclear weapons add another layer to the complexity. There looms a strong potential for accidental launches which was demonstrated by India’s Brahmos missile misfire into Pakistan in 2022 adding to the risk of unintended escalation. Additionally, a resurgence in cross-border terrorism which is a persistent India-Pakistan issue, could rapidly inflame tensions, particularly during election cycles where leaders may resort to nationalistic rhetoric. Growing distrust and military buildups along the India-China border also raise concerns of conventional conflict that could spill over into nuclear dimensions. The security dilemma in which India’s deterrence moves against China provoke Pakistan to expand its own arsenal compounds the risk of an accelerated regional arms race risking destabilization of the entire region and making it a flashpoint for a global security crisis.
Way Forward
Navigating the challenges posed by the expanding nuclear landscape in Southern Asia presents significant threats, necessitating that the international community prioritize diplomatic engagement and constructive dialogue as fundamental strategies for risk mitigation. By prioritizing diplomacy and cooperation over competition, these countries can work together to diminish the threat of nuclear conflict while advancing initiatives that promote regional development, security, and mutual understanding, ultimately contributing to a more secure and equitable environment for all. In addition, the commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) remains an essential treaty for fostering regional peace and security in Southern Asia. By promoting open dialogue, nations in the region are encouraged to collaboratively address shared challenges and grievances. Prioritizing disarmament, the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy can create an environment of trust and cooperation. This approach offers a pathway to reducing the risk of nuclear conflict while advancing sustainable development, enhanced security, and mutual understanding, thereby ensuring a prosperous future for all countries in Southern Asia.
Abhinav Dhakal is a Research Intern at NIICE.
