10 August 2024, NIICE Commentary 9412
Prakash Jangid

In a much fanfare moment, Nawaz Sharif the three-time Prime Minister was back in Pakistan to participate in the February 2024 national elections with a dream to lead the country once again. Nawaz Sharif’s resurrection into Pakistan’s political landscape was no less than a fairy tale, with all the charges withdrawn against him. It has been six months since the election but, the homecoming did not get along as anticipated, as the fractured mandate forced the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) to come in terms for a seat sharing agreement, with the Prime Minister’s Office going to PML-N leader Shehbaz Sharif and the PPP’s Asif Ali Zardari assuming the office of the President. However, Nawaz Sharif’s reconciliation with the military played a crucial role in ensuring his daughter Maryam Nawaz became the first female Chief Minister of a province (Punjab) in Pakistan, and his brother Shehbaz Sharif became the Prime Minister for his second term. Among all this, Nawaz Sharif’s political stature will be crucial by the role he plays in keeping the coalition partners together, bringing out Pakistan from its economic crisis and re-strengthening its regional and global ties.

Army and Nawaz Sharif: The Frenemies at Play

Nawaz Sharif, the longest-serving Prime Minister of Pakistan, has a history of conflicting relationships with the establishment, which has both brought him to power and ousted him at times. Initially called the protégé of the establishment, Nawaz’s demand for a larger civilian autonomy in his previous administration brought him into conflict with the establishment, forcing him into exile twice, first in Saudi Arabia (2000-2007) and then in London (2019-2023).

His return to Pakistan from the self-imposed exile in 2023, under the so-called “secret deal”, was seen as much of a mutually beneficial agreement between Nawaz Sharif and the establishment’s shared antipathy towards the former Prime Minister Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). This became evident with the imprisonment of Imran Khan and the banning of PTI’s election symbol, as well as the further coercion of his party members to contest elections as independents. Despite alleged widespread rigging across Pakistan, the anticipated outcome failed to materialize, and the frenemies were unable to achieve their desired goal. Finally, the PML-N had to come to terms with the PPP and other parties in forming a coalition government.

Pakistan Under Senior Sharif’s Leadership

Nawaz Sharif’s return has showcased two things: first, the power he holds in the fragile political landscape of the country, and second, his relevance cum tuning with the establishment.

His political intervention was evident in the way he was pulling the policy strings from London during Shahbaz Sharif’s first term as Prime Minister. Even though his charisma failed to achieve the majority mark of 134, Nawaz Sharif remains the most powerful civilian leader in the country.

For the time being, Nawaz Sharif seems to be strengthening his ground with both the establishment and the coalition partners. Despite not entering any prominent office, he has showcased his strength by being re-elected as the PML-N president on May 28, 2024.

The priority for the new administration on the domestic front is to deal with the rising inflation, unemployment, poverty and terrorism. On the foreign policy front, the priority includes, getting Pakistan out of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list and securing the bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Amidst all these challenges Nawaz Sharif is expected to play a crucial role as the coalition partners finalise their priorities.

Moving Towards Pakistan’s East

Towards its East, India remains the most important factor in both the domestic as well as the foreign policy of Pakistan. In the recent past, there have been mixed signals from Nawaz Sharif. Firstly, in an interview from his London house in September 2023, he stated, “Today Pakistan’s prime minister goes country to country to beg for funds while India has reached the moon and is holding G20 meetings.” Secondly, after returning back to Pakistan in October 2023, Nawaz in his first speech at the Lahore rally brought up the Kashmir issue. Thirdly, in May 2024, in a criticism of Pakistan’s foreign policy, he said, “Islamabad violated the peace agreement signed by him and former Indian premier Atal Bihari Vajpayee”.

In response to these statements, Ajay Bisaria, India’s former high commissioner to Pakistan has stated that, “It must be read as a significant signal from Pakistan’s currently most important civilian leader for India’s incoming government”. After all New Delhi is well aware of the past attempts by Nawaz Sharif to ease India-Pakistan bitterness.

While the recent spike in terrorist attacks in the districts of Reasi, Kathua and Doda in Jammu and Kashmir will have further repercussions in derailing the diplomatic channels for future talks. Because India’s position remains the same- no dialogue until Pakistan stops cross-border terrorism. So, Nawaz Sharif’s message “Let’s Replace Hate with Hope”, carries no weight at a time when he has taken the oath as an ordinary lawmaker in the assembly and has no other portfolio for the time being.

In all this- the core question remains: will the establishment give the green light to peace talks with India? If so, will they be able to begin without hanging on the Kashmir issue?

Conclusion

For some, Nawaz Sharif’s return is considered as the restoration of the army’s faith in him. The same was witnessed during his first public address in Lahore in 2023, when he refrained from talking about China, Russia, and Arab countries in particular, as they remain the core concern of the army. Any stepping into the army’s shoes would be a direct invitation to the displeasure of Rawalpindi. For the time being, it seems that Nawaz Sharif has taken on the role of a negotiator to keep things in place.

In all this, the army will continue to embrace the hybrid form of government, thus giving it the much-needed space to manoeuvre as and when needed. After all, only time will tell the success of the Umeed-e-Pakistan -the Hope of Pakistan (name of the chartered flight carrying Nawaz Sharif from Dubai to Pakistan)- as it has only been six months since the new government entered office.

Prakash Jangid is a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Political Science, University of Rajasthan, Jaipur, India.