11 August 2024, NIICE Commentary 9418
Prajwal Baral

Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow from July 8-9, for the first time after Russia launched full scale invasion upon Ukraine which started in 2022 and is still going on. Modi’s visit caused widespread tension within the United States and the broader international community, as it was just before the NATO summit in Washington and had significant geopolitical impact in international affairs.

With China strengthening its ties with Russia, Modi’s visit to Moscow is viewed as an effort to balance power within Asia pacific region, especially with on going border disputes with Beijing. Both sides have agreed to enhance bilateral trade to over USD 100 billion by 2030, within nine key areas of cooperation, and fostering its long friendship in upcoming years also.

After Russia launched full scale invasion of Ukraine, US and its NATO allies straightly condemned Russia’s aggression, demanding Russia to withdraw its force and respect Ukraine’s sovereignty. Despite substantial Western pressure, India has chosen not to condemn Russia’s actions in global forum and loath to take part in the sanctions regime.

Upon Modi’s visit to Russia, Eric Garcetti, the United States Ambassador to India, remarked, “In times of conflict, strategic autonomy becomes irrelevant; during crisis moments, it is crucial for us to understand each other.” At the same time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia, calling it a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.”

India Historic Alliance with Russia

After the independence, India has consistently adhered the principle of non-alignment maintaining its firm position in the Cold War’s period and in contemporary world affairs also. Upon the difficult time both the country has played there part to maintain their long historical ties to strengthen their relationship.  On June 22, 1962 Russia cast its veto in favor of India’s position on Kashmir. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union the geopolitical landscape changed but there has been no  major shift in India and Russia relation.

Despite “Make in India” initiatives and increased trade with Western partners, India still relies heavily on Russia for defense equipment, with over more than 30% of its defense imports coming from Russia . In the Financial Year 2022-23, bilateral trade between India and Russia was $49.36 billion, which rose to $65.7 billion in the Fiscal Year 2023-24. .Just like in the case of Kashmir, Russia maintaining strong political and historical alliance supported Prime Minister Narendra Modi move of abrogating Article 370 in 2019, referring to it as an “internal matter” and not condemning it while international community has stated its concerns.

As a rising power, India may face a Geopolitical dilemma but continues to navigate global affairs from its specific interest, while still maintaining strategic partnership with U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region and being part of the Quad alliance and also working with those partner that west forbids .Focusing over national interests over international confrontations, positioning itself as a strategic partner rather than a global one has been the significant part of India’s foreign policy after the independence allowing it to uphold strategic autonomy and focus its foreign policy on its own strategic goals.

India-China Position and Nepal Strategy

As stated by Prithvi Narayan Shah, “Nepal is a yam between two boulders,” its significance grows in the 21st century, as both China and India march for regional hegemony and influence in the changing global order. Since its formation as a state, Nepal has long maintained strategic autonomy and adhered to a policy of non-alignment.

During the Cold War, Nepal enjoyed the leverage of playing China and India against each other. However, in the current geopolitical scenario, where economic ties are more significant than ideological alignments, Nepal needs to firmly maintain its position, enhance cooperation, and extract benefits from both sides.

As Napoleon Bonaparte famously referred China is a sleeping giant, Modern China is rapidly expanding its interests and influence worldwide, including in Nepal, which holds a strategic position for the Anti-China bloc. The past incidents involving the Khamapa revolt, Tibetan refugees and Dalai Lama have made China acutely aware of Nepal’s strategic importance. Meanwhile, India has consistently sought to keep Nepal within its sphere of influence and aims to strengthen its position as a regional hegemonic power in the global order.

China and India have deepened their economic ties, with Chinese imports to India surpassing $100 billion in the fiscal year 2024, solidifying China’s status as India’s largest trading partner but there exists significant border tensions along their 3,440-kilometer border. China’s emerging influence in South Asian region also further complicates situation for India.

Despite that, India has carefully addressed its economic interest by engaging in that sector which significantly benefit the economy development while restricting involvement in areas that could compromise economic stability, particularly in times of crisis. At the same time, India addresses security concerns by strengthening its defense capabilities and forging strategic alliances with other countries to counterbalance other influence.

So in this crucial juncture, Nepal should work to foster coordination and promoting peace while upholding the principles of a rule-based international order. The stability and prosperity of the region, as well as the emerging global order, depend on the two major powers addressing their contentious issues more rationally and prioritizing adherence to established rules and norms.

What Lies Ahead for Nepal?

From the earlier times Nepal had heavy reliance on trade with both India and China. Trade with both the partner significantly matters the import and export of the countries produced goods. Beyond economic ties, border tensions and encroachment has made the situation much more volatile with increased foreign involvement in energy and infrastructure sector, further complicating Nepal’s situation for balancing the interest between them.

As there are difficulties, there also exists the chance to extract benefit from both the counties economic progress. Nepal should work to maintain regional harmony and work on the principle of peace as a pathway to prosperity. While Nepal does not have the economic and diplomatic leverage of India in the global order, its socio-cultural and economic ties with both nations can play a significant role in the region.

Upcoming years for Nepal will be much more volatile, as peace in this region is likely to be affected, So Nepal’s aspirations for economic development and prosperity cannot be realized without the peace in this region. Therefore, Nepal’s leaders must explore how the country can balance harmony between these two giants while maintaining strategic autonomy to make independent decisions that serve its national interests. To optimize the benefits of its relationships with both the neighbors without significantly compromising their geographical and security interests while upholding its own sovereignty by ensuring its foreign policy and domestic affairs not unduly affected by either of these powerful neighbors.

Prajwal Baral is a graduate of Nepal Law Campus, and a research fellow at Samriddhi Foundation.