1 August 2020, NIICE Commentary 5752
Srija Mukhopadhyay
Omar Abdullah, in a recent interview with The Indian Express said, “I will raise my voice, I will fight, but I will not give somebody in a uniform with a gun an excuse or a reason to kill one of us.” The Former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir’s statement is a clear indicator that territorial conflict in Kashmir is an incessant phenomenon unsusceptible to the worldwide health crisis. This paper attempts to throw light on how the condition of violence in Kashmir being flouted completely despite the pandemic and threatening consequences.
Kashmir and the Pandemic
On 5 May 2020, The Print reported that in a recent ceasefire violation by Pakistan along the Line of Control, three CRPF personnel and a small boy in Handwara, North Kashmir lost their lives. Several responses to this incident brought out different aspects of the situation. While some do not blame Pakistan’s terrorism wholly as a pandemic exploiting tool to inflict casualties in Kashmir, there are others like the Former Foreign Secretary, Kanwal Sibal who believe things to be different. He stated that Pakistan’s aim of creating a violence inflicted Kashmir in order to keep alive their idea of a ‘rogue-state’ through frequent cease fire violations using the pandemic is a measure of their “terrorism syndrome”. This continued during the pandemic too.
The picture of a small boy sited on his dead grandfather in early July circulated widely across the social media brought to the forefront the brutal side of Sino-India stand-off due to the recent storming in Ladakh. It illustrated the broader picture of a disturbed Kashmir during the pandemic. Does the power play among the emerging powers give human affliction a back seat when territorial security calls for a peremptory response?
Zee News on 9 July 2020 reported that in an encounter, the Indian security agencies found that the recruitment of young people by ISIS was being done actively from Kashmir using online platforms during COVID-19. According to the cyber security watchdog officials, the social media administrators belong to Pakistan who direct the people involved with their institutions in Jammu and Kashmir to clamp down on the security forces.
South Asian Terrorism Portal reported 33 incidents of violence in Jammu and Kashmir in 2020. Out of the 79 people being killed, 13 were security personnels, 57 terrorists and 9 civilians. EurAsian Times Desk reported the case of border villages like Kupwara, Batpora, Pangzam and Mukam amidst the Coronavirus pandemic to stress upon the difficult situation the people are facing there under stringent lockdown and continuous shelling.
The President of Pakistani Administered Kashmir, Masood Khan, allegedly called out the process of ethnic cleansing of Kashmir by Indians exploiting COVID-19. President Khan suggested that bilateral negotiations over Kashmir between India and Pakistan were nothing more than a mirage. Kashmir is Pakistan’s plea for crying foul and hence it looks for support on the issue from other countries to intervene.
According to The New Indian Express, US President Donald Trump described Kashmir as a long term “thorn” and offered his help to both India and Pakistan for reducing the tension. Hindustan Times reported on 4 July 2020 that Alice Wells, the State Department official for South Asia said that US wants India to remove the impediments in Kashmir and release those who had been detained in the current scenario. However, the situation remains the same.
The withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan is due by the end of 2021 and bears implications for India as well. Indian infrastructure in Afghanistan has remained the target of Haqqani Taliban group. Thus, the situation would take a derogatory turn if the Taliban comes to power leading to infiltration in Kashmir.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan share a close relationship due to convergence of religious views. However, according to Iftikhar Gilani, an expert in South Asian affairs, Saudi Arabia’s disinclined attitude to join the meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and silence on the issue of Kashmir is claustrophobic for Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Even though Suhail Shaheen, the Taliban spokesperson in Doha tweeted about not being friends with India till the Kashmir issue was resolved, he stated at a conference that the Islamic Emirate did not have a policy to interfere in the internal affairs in other countries.
The inference is that despite being aware of the volatile situation in Kashmir, there are hardly any substantial initiatives being taken to address the situation except public condemning of the situation.
Though counter insurgency forces are installed by India in Kashmir, a strategic analyst and retired army officer Col. Ali Ahmed expressed his lack of confidence in the possibility of peace in Jammu and Kashmir as the revocation of article 370 and 35a has alienated the Kashmiris. Before the scrapping, counter insurgency officials had reported that effective lockdowns with limited internet access reduced violence on the part of the Pakistani militants. To them, however such strategies to be fruitful in 2020 as well are not bereft of skepticisms.
The Brookings Doha Center (BDC) in June 2020 highlighted the arms deal made by the Middle Eastern countries with the Western exporters in times when the world is fighting the pandemic. This clearly demonstrates that despite UN call for a global ceasefire, arms deals and recruitment of terrorists as premonitions of an impending geo-political crisis puts trade in military apparatuses among the top priorities of the nations.
On 1 April 2020, the Indian government set up rules for establishing domicile status for the residents of these Union Territories. The pandemic would only heighten the already existing conflict since the revocation of the special status would lead to a demographic boom and the rising COVID-19 cases will make the situation worse.
Silver Lining
Despite the dismal condition of a conflict zone like Kashmir which has continued to shake people’s sensibilities all over the world, attempts of negotiations between India, Pakistan and China to de-escalate consistently, cannot be nullified.
Wang Yi, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs gave a statement that President Xi Jinping wished for a harmonious relation among India-China-Pakistan in order work together for development and tranquility. Wang Shida, Deputy Director of a Chinese Ministry of State Security-affiliated think-tank penned down on 4 June 2020, “On the Chinese side, India opened up new territory on the map, incorporated part of the areas under the local jurisdiction of Xinjiang and Tibet into its Ladakh Union Territory…This forced China into Kashmir dispute, stimulated China and Pakistan to take counter-actions on the Kashmir issue, and dramatically increased the difficulty in resolving the border issue between China and India.” She added that 2020 ‘cross-border terrorism’ is different from other times. The terrorists infiltrating the Line of Control have been able to inflict greater damage and are better trained. This indicates that the concern is being addressed.
Implications for India
According to Abhinav Pandya, the abrogation of Kashmir’s special status has led to locals blaming Delhi for neglecting the after effects of extra-judicial killing and violation of Human Rights by security agencies. The pandemic has no doubt added another coating to their suffering as the Union government’s focus on the rising COVID-19 cases that has further isolated the people. The National Investigation Agency in March 2020 brought in charges against Khalistan Zindabad Force, a militant group of transferring fake money, arms and explosive material with the help of Chinese drones. The media also reported that the police officials are trying to trace a connection with Kashmir in terms of armament shipment. After the announcement of the Kartarpur Corridor, there has been uproar in the social media on the resurrected call for Khalistan. Thus, the global health emergency is an inclusive aspect within the broader territorial threat on the western front of India.
The revoking of Article 370 and 35a by the Indian Government on 5 August 2019 produced several repercussions including detention of Kashmiris, arrest of the political leaders along with severe curfews which in turn have made situations reach a tangled crescendo. Kashmir is burning and more so because of the pandemic. Political developments in China, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India having direct consequences on Kashmir, not only keeps the zone conflict-ridden but also allows a threat to their national securities. An amalgamated approach addressing multi faceted concerns is the only way to prevent a big storm in stirring before it gets late.
