1 August 2020, NIICE Commentary 5756
Dr. Aparajita
The global power is shifting from the west to the east. India and China are two powers of Asia that are aspiring to achieve great power status. Thus, as per David Scott, “even if the territorial disputes are resolved, India and China would still remain in a competitive relation in the Asia Pacific region, as two Asian giants aspire to have great power status’. Similarly, David Malone is of the view that China’s presence in the South Asian region challenges the foreign policy of India. The article discusses and analyses China’s penetration in South Asia, that threatens India’s position in its own region. It further analyses how China is befriending South Asian countries through economic integration and infrastructure development projects and provides policy options for India to restrict China’s inroads into South Asia.
Though, geopolitically China is not a part of South Asia, it has major influence on the foreign policies of the South Asian countries as it has made strong connections with these countries economically. China has established itself so well that it is considered as a ‘neutral player’ by the South Asian Countries, as they consider that China does not interfere in their internal matters and respects their sovereignty and integrity. The intervention of India in the neighbouring countries is often considered as a threat by these countries to their national identities and sovereignty. In economic terms, China is more attractive partner compared to India.
The South Asian countries’ acceptance of China in their region are guided by many factors. In South Asia, India dominates in terms of size, population, military and economy and often plays the role of a ‘Big Brother’. The other South Asian countries – Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan fear India’s domination and have the notion that India interferes in their internal matters hindering their territorial integrity and sovereignty. Subsequently, they use ‘China card’ to contain India as China is economically and militarily powerful compared to India and aspires to be global power. China wants to increase its influence in Asia and India is a major power that can challenge its position. Thus, China wants to break the India-US nexus. According to Hassan Haqqani, “Pakistan for China is a low cost secondary deterrent to India…China for Pakistan is high-value guarantor of security against India”. The aim of both the sides is same, that is, containment of India in its own region. It can be said, as assumed by various scholars, that it is China’s ‘New Great Game’ to increase its influence in South Asia and restricting India in its own backyard, that is South Asia.
China’s Inroads in South Asia
China, through its ambitious ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) and ‘String of Pearls’ policy is increasing its influence in South Asia. Through BRI, China is developing infrastructure around the world as well as in South Asia. India is not a part of this project as it believes that through its ‘String of Pearls’ policy, China is containing India with the help of other South Asian countries by developing economic and military relationship with them.
China is a major trade partner of most of the South Asian Countries. It’s exports to Pakistan is around 24 percent of its total imports that is highest compared to the other countries. Similarly, China and India have major share in the market of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan. China has recently surpassed India in becoming the major exporter to Bangladesh (21.5 percent from China and 12.2 percent from India). Though, Nepal and Bhutan are major trading partner of India, China is gradually entering into their markets. It is also important to note that the intra-regional trade among the South Asia is less than 5 percent of the total trade. China also supplies major weapons (both traditional and advance technologies) to Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project passes through the area of the Pakistan administered Kashmir which India claims. This brings about major irritant between China and India. China has assisted Bangladesh in construction of launch pad near the Chittagong Port. The Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka provides China with dominance over huge area of Indian Ocean that extends from Africa in the east to Australia in the west and Antarctica in the South. India has concerns as through this port China can monitor the movement of Indian ships.
Similarly, Nepal shares geographical proximity with Tibet, which China considers as an important region for its security and cannot be left to be dominated by any regional or global powers. Nepal homes around 20,000 Tibetan refugees.
Nepal’s tilt towards China is a matter of concern for India and after the Sino-India conflict in the Galwan Valley. Recently, Nepal released a new political map including the disputed territory. The chief of Indian Army, General M. M. Naravane opined that Nepal was doing it at the ‘behest’ of China. After the Galwan Valley conflict, China has also provided tariff relaxation to major products from Bangladesh to China. China is trying to win the support of these countries in its favour against India by giving compensations.
According to the Realists, nations shape their foreign policy on the basis of national interest. So, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bhutan and Afghanistan are working on the basis of their national interests. It is in the interest of India and China to have strategic and economic relations with other South Asian countries. It is also in the interest of South Asian countries to have cordial relations with both India and China. Subsequently, these countries instead to getting sandwiched between the two powerful countries should shape their foreign policies cautiously that would serve their interests on one side and maintain cordial relations with both the countries. As these countries are small, they would align with India or China, to check one with the other.
Policy Recommendations for India
There are several steps that India can take to contain China’s influence in South Asia: i) India should strengthen its relations with the USA to counter balance China’s influences, ii) Apart from the US, India should also strengthen its role in Quad+ with countries such as Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and Singapore, iii) India, like China should start focusing on China’s neighbouring countries under the umbrella of ‘Act East Policy’ and try to increase its influence, iv) India should refrain from interfering into other countries that can hurt their territorial integrity and sovereignty, v) India should resolve its differences with neighbours such as border issues with them and strengthen its relations through its ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy, vi) India should enhance and strengthened its military powers to meet the challenges posed by China China, vii) India should use multilateral institutions like the UN and the UN Security Council, viii) India should meet the aspirations of its neighbours and support in connectivity and infrastructure projects like China does through BRI and finally, ix) India should try to strengthen SAARC and BIMSTEC to increase regional integration among the South Asian countries.
