Future of US-China Relations

Watch it on NIICE Nepal YouTube Channel

Events Report

The Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE), conducted a discussion that aimed to discuss various matters that highlights the current issues and challenges confronting the International System. On August 11, 2021, NIICE organized the discuss the future of the diplomatic relationship between The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America (USA).

The webinar’s speaker, Dr. Cheng Li, is a Chinese-American scholar who serves as the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He is also the director of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, which is a non-profit organization that promotes cooperation between the above mentioned countries. He obtained his Master’s degree in Asian Studies at the University of California. He also holds a Doctorate degree in Political Science at Princeton University.

            Dr. Cheng Li has started the discussion by stating that the US-China diplomatic relations is “The Most Consequential Bilateral Relationship in Today’s World.” He also added that the ongoing tension and conflict between the two great powers will have a profound impact in the regions of South Asia and Southeast Asia. In this webinar, Dr. Cheng addressed the three interrelated questions about the bilateral relationship. Below are the questions and the key points of the discussion.

1. What are the Overall Prospects (in the perspective of Dr. Cheng Li) for the United States-China Relations?

According to Dr. Cheng, the future of the bilateral relationship between the two countries is dark and disheartening. To support this argument, he provided two observations:

• The first observation is about the United States-China Talks, known as the Alaska Talks or Anchorage Meetings, which is a meeting between the representatives of the two countries. Dr. Cheng explained that the anchorage diplomatic dialogue reflects a lack of trust, respect, and decency by the diplomatic court on both sides. During the first day of the talks, it was noted that it ended in mutual public denunciations by both of the two parties. Although the United States and China have disagreement with one another, Dr. Cheng have said that there are still exceptions that demonstrate a good relationship between the representatives of the countries, such as an instance when Chinese Ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, had graciously congratulated #TeamUSA on ranking first at the Tokyo Olympics.
• The second observation is about the demagogic actions of both countries that demonize the other side of the bilateral relationship. Examples of these actions include blaming the other side (China) for producing the COVID-19.

2. Why has the bilateral relationship not improved under the Biden Administration?

            During the discussion, Dr. Cheng Li has provided the significant difference between the Biden Administration and the previous Trump Administration, primarily on the policy of the United States towards China. In the current administration of Joe Biden, he made International Coalition Building as his primary foreign policy initiative, which is deemed to be a smart move for the US. Biden has also characterized its policies towards China into 3C’s – Competition, Cooperation, and Confrontation. US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, has said, “The United States relationship with China will be competitive where it should be, collaborative where it can be, and adversarial where it must be.” Below are the reasons why the diplomatic relationship has not improved:

• In China’s perspective, the Biden Administration’s coalition-driven competition had led to a “cold war-style confrontation”.
• The United States urged European countries to reconsider the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), which will be a huge blow on China’s
• US-China Relations under Joe Biden have not improved due to the several problems that the administration is facing, such as the tremendous pressure to address economic disparity, political divide, and persistent social problems in the United States.
• The Biden administration views that an ‘aggressive’ China Policy is a means of finding a common ground between the democrats and republicans.
• There are many anti-China bills emerging in the US Congress, such as the Strategic Competition Act of 2021, which will most likely drive the Biden administration to aggressively counter a rising global China.
• For the first time since the Second World War, the United States has confronted a country with economic and technological potential that is comparable to them.

3. What Factors have made the Chinese Leadership Decide to be Assertive and Determined to play “hardball” with the United States?

According to discussion of Dr. Cheng Li, here are the factors that caused China to act assertive towards the United States:

• Beijing believes that China has more leverage in the current global geopolitical landscape.
• China recognizes the different views and positions of the United States allies in the continent of Europe and Asia.
• Beijing believes that it will take a long time for the United States to recover from the COVID-19, racial and political divide, economic structured problems, and serious domestic economic disparities.
• Beijing believes that Biden is under more time pressure than them because of the 2022 US Midterm Elections.
• In Beijing’s perspective, Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Hongkong are areas that are not negotiable. China will be very firm about this issue.
• Beijing believes that the United States should make the first move to alter the current alarmingly path of US-China confrontation.

Dr. Cheng Li has made it clear that his pessimistic assessment is not necessarily fatalistic nor predetermined. For instance, he does not believe the former senior white house official who said that the US-China bilateral relationship is in free fall. To support this argument, he provided the positive dynamics of the diplomatic relations between the two countries:

• The US is China’s Third Largest Trading Partner with an increase of 41 percent in trade during the first five months of 2021 compared to 2020.
• The US is still interested in having an economic engagement with China. According to a US Study, China is the largest important partner of at least 15 US States, including California, New York, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, which are very large states.
• Scholarly collaboration between the United States and China has not only continued but also expanded in recent years. According to a recent study, US and China scientific collaboration grew by more than 10 percent each year.

As for the conclusion, Dr. Cheng Li said that we are currently in a dangerous and uncertain era in the worldwide geopolitics. Major military conflict between two largest economies in the world ‘can’ and ‘must be’ avoided. He also echoed Henry Kissinger’s assessment that the US and China are equally powerful and neither of the countries could win a total war to destroy the other. It is a war without a winner.

Prepared by Ramon Christian Marasigan, Research Intern at NIICE.