18 October 2024, NIICE Commentary 9668
Ritesh Panthee

Nepal’s national security is under siege from a complex web of threats, ranging from geopolitical rivalries to cyberattacks. The recent advice from the former Army Chief to Parliamentarians underscores the growing concerns about foreign interference and the need for vigilance. Additionally, the government’s scrutiny of the National Investigation Department highlights the deficiencies in Nepal’s counter-espionage capabilities.

Nepal’s Security Concerns

Security concerns can be both national and international. Until the various movements that took place before and after the promulgation of the constitution in Nepal, the continuous strikes of certain groups, and the activities of the Biplab party and CK Raut, it was considered a challenge. The dimension of security is now changing.

Nepal Police has identified open borders, Myanmar Rohingya refugees, political instability, refugees from conflict countries, immigration security, and individuals disrupting religious and ethnic harmony as major challenges and also recommended focusing on reintegrating returning youth employed abroad. This article delves into Nepal’s evolving security challenges.

Geopolitical Challenges and Refugee Problems

Currently, Nepal is home to over 10,000 Tibetan refugees and 6,365 Bhutanese refugees. Countries such as China, India, and the USA have a significant stake in the situation of Tibetan refugees in Nepal. In 2023, rumors spread about India’s plans to establish a “Buddha College” near the China Border. KP Oli criticized the then-Prachanda-led government, which subsequently clarified that there were no plans to construct such an institution.

The US Department of State’s Religious Freedom Index, 2023 also highlighted human rights concerns related to Tibetan refugees in Nepal. Furthermore, Nepal faced challenges following a visit by US officials to engage with Tibetan refugees, as China actively opposes Western involvement in Tibetan affairs within Nepal.

Not long ago, former Army Chief Prabhuram Sharma advised parliamentarians to approach international relations and foreign issues with caution when asked about current national security challenges. He emphasized that foreign actors have vested interests, and it is crucial not to provoke neighboring countries. This issue is sensitive and must be navigated intelligently through diplomacy and other means. Recent challenges also include potential influx of refugees following the events in Bangladesh. As per reports, there are 416 Rohingya refugees in Nepal, which is higher than anticipated. There is a possibility that illegal immigrants could be exploited for terrorist and criminal activities.

Cross-Border Crimes

Nepal faces significant challenges due to its location and open borders. The USA Country Report on Terrorism, 2021, highlights security concerns at Tribhuvan International Airport as weak and raises worries about Nepal being used as a base by the Indian Mujahideen (IM), an Indian terrorist group. It is crucial to address security vulnerabilities that enable criminal activities to occur and perpetrators to escape across the open border between Nepal and India.

The Defense Minister stated that Nepali security personnel were unaware of the arrival of foreign security personnel, resulting in an unplanned encounter. This incident reflects our negligence and failure of our mechanisms.

Fear of Religious Violence

In the fiscal year 2080/81, Nepal Police reported 44 strikes, 16 roadblocks, 9 enforced closures, 22 sit-ins, and 148 protests related to identity and religion issues. The deployment of 13,000 security personnel and army intervention highlight significant security challenges for Nepal. In recent years, there have been protests and rallies calling for the reinstatement of a Hindu state in Nepal, partly in response to the perceived rise in the Christian population and Muslim activities. Although our constitution prohibits religious conversion, a BBC documentary highlighted Nepal as one of the countries experiencing an increase in the number of Christians. It’s crucial for the state to enforce laws that promote religious harmony and to crack the activities of missionaries.

Technological Challenges

In 2079, Arju Rana Deuba made a serious claim about an information leak from the Nepal Army. She said that the data of the Nepali Army was reaching Turkey. She was shown the emails of army officers, which raised concerns about Army Digital Security.

The 2023-24 report reveals 19,730 cybercrime cases in Nepal, up from 9,013 in 2022-23, with 2,100 cases reported in the first month of 2024-25. Even government websites are vulnerable to hacking. The rise in cybercrime can be attributed to increased technology accessibility. There is also the possibility of cyber threat in Nepal. The government allowing TikTok is a positive move for freedom of expression, but it comes as Western countries are imposing security restrictions. So, the government needs to be serious and make plans to address these issues before it is too late.

Nowadays, Deep Fakes and Artificial Intelligence are being utilized for criminal activities. In Nepalgunj, social media and technology led to a conflict between religion and the army deployed to control the situation. Even minor incidents are now managed by the APF and the Army, rather than just the police.

Climate Disasters

Nepal is particularly vulnerable to climate change compared to other countries. Recent disasters that occurred just before Dashain, the country’s largest festival, resulted more than 230 lives and caused damage worth billions of rupees. This serves as a stark wake-up call. In response, the government has declared a disaster crisis zone in 14 districts. As a Himalayan nation with an economy that heavily relies on tourism, this situation is concerning.  Reports indicate that 80% of Nepal’s population is at risk from natural and climate-related disasters, leading to escalating security concerns during such crises. Disasters, both natural and man-made can pose, a significant threat to a country’s economy. Disasters can create opportunities for foreign powers to destabilize a country and undermine its national security interests.

It is essential to prioritize our national security challenges. Recently, Prime Minister  Oli expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of the National Investigation Department (NID) and directed it to function effectively as a counter-intelligence and counter-espionage agency. He emphasized the necessity for immediate results to maintain its authority, underscoring the inefficiencies within Nepal’s current counter-espionage mechanism.

The previous Prachanda government created the role of National Security Adviser, endowing the position with ministerial privileges. However, the recent decision by the Oli government to discontinue the NSA position has left the reasons behind its establishment and dissolution somewhat unclear. In countries like India and the USA, National Security Advisers hold significant influence, participating in crucial meetings and advising their respective Prime Ministers and Presidents.

In Nepal, there is troubling trend where political leaders and ministries bypass protocols by engaging with foreign representatives without involving the MoFA. Additionally, foreign diplomats in Nepal do not consistently adhere to diplomatic codes of conduct, largely due to the flexibility we have extended to them. Reforms are necessary to address these issues.

Hence, it is vital to tackle the security challenges posed by shifting geopolitical dynamics, technological advancements, AI and deepfakes, religious extremism, the US Indo-Pacific strategy, the State Partnership Program, and China’s Global Security Initiatives strategy. It’s crucial to focus on enhancing the military capabilities, increasing security personnel salaries, investing in technology, and bolstering the Defence budget. Strengthening the National Investigation Department, reforming the laws governing of APF and Police, coordinating law enforcement mechanisms, implementing internal security policies, regulating social media, and allocating resources for security measures are necessary steps to take.

Ritesh Panthee is a Law student at the National Law College, Tribhuvan University, Nepal.