7 October 2024, NIICE Commentary 9653
Abhinav Dhakal
The South China Sea, a semi-enclosed body of water in the western Pacific Ocean, spans over 3.5 million square kilometers. Bordered by China to the north, the Philippines to the east, Vietnam to the west, and Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore, and Indonesia to the south, this vast expanse represents far more than just a geographical feature. It is a hotspot of geopolitical rivalry and economic significance, hosting over one-third of global maritime traffic—a trade route valued at more than USD 3 trillion annually. Moreover, the South China Sea has untapped reserves of oil and natural gas and provides approximately 12 percent of the world’s total fish catch. This rich marine ecosystem plays a vital role in supporting the livelihoods of millions in the region, underscoring the sea’s critical importance as both a resource and a focal point of international interest.
The territorial disputes in the South China Sea stems from overlapping claims by several countries bordering the sea. In recent decades, China has been widely viewed as the primary driver of the conflict. Despite claims from other nations, China has increasingly asserted exclusive economic and military rights over much of the South China Sea. Its claim cover roughly 90 percent of the sea, which is represented on map using a nine-dash line.The issue escalated significantly on December in 2013, with major implications for regional stability in East and Southeast Asia, when the Chinese military began constructing artificial islands on seven coral atolls in the Spratly Islands, China later claimed these islands in October 2015. The construction covers over 3,000 acres and is equipped with military infrastructure, including anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems. In 2014, China moved an oil rig into Vietnamese waters, sparking widespread protests across Vietnam. To reinforce its territorial claims, China has also arrested foreign fishermen and sailors operating in waters it considers its own. The South China Sea is contested by multiple neighboring countries, including Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and the Philippines, all of whom lay claim to different parts of the region. China’s expansive “nine-dash line” extends into areas with valuable oil and gas fields, particularly in regions claimed by Malaysia and Brunei, raising the potential for a multi-nation dispute over territorial rights.
China and the Philippines: Contested Relations in the South China Sea
The Philippines has had one of the most contentious relationships with China regarding the South China Sea in recent decades, particularly over territorial disputes involving the Spratly Islands. The Spratly Islands consist of over 100 small islands and reefs surrounded by rich fishing grounds and potentially significant gas and oil deposits..One of the most notable incidents between the Philippines and China occurred in the late 1990s when the Philippine military deliberately grounded the Sierra Madre, a World War II tank landing ship, on the Second Thomas Shoal to counter China’s advances and reinforce its territorial claims to the area, which it calls the West Philippine Sea. Second Thomas Shoal, located in the Spratly Islands, lies about 200 kilometers west of Palawan, a Philippine island, and more than 1,000 kilometers from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan Island. This places the shoal within the Philippines’ 370-kilometer exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
Since grounding the Sierra Madre, now known as BRP Sierra Madre, the Philippine Coast Guard has conducted monthly resupply missions to its military contingent stationed on the ship. In 2023, Chinese Coast Guard vessels began employing aggressive tactics to harass Philippine resupply missions, leading to heightened clashes. Collisions have become increasingly common, and the Chinese Coast Guard has used a military-grade laser and repeatedly fired water cannons at Philippine ships. On June 17, 2024, a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship collided near Second Thomas Shoal, with both sides blaming the other for the incident.
In July 2024, China and the Philippines reached a provisional agreement regarding resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal, intended to ease tensions and ensure the delivery of essentials to the BRP Sierra Madre. However, the terms of the agreement were later disputed. China claimed that resupply missions required prior notification and on-site verification, a condition the Philippines denied. Despite the agreement, tensions flared again in August 2024, with multiple maritime collisions near Sabina Shoal. Both countries accused each other of deliberately ramming their vessels, and the Philippine Coast Guard reported that its ship, BRP Teresa Magbanua, was rammed by a Chinese vessel during the confrontations.
In September 2024, bilateral talks were scheduled to address the ongoing disputes. However, analysts warned that the conflict was expanding beyond the maritime domain into the aerial sphere. On August 19, a Philippine aircraft conducting a reconnaissance mission near Scarborough Shoal was reportedly targeted by Chinese forces, which fired flares at dangerously close proximity to the aircraft. The Philippine government has lodged numerous diplomatic protests against Chinese actions, including those involving “dangerous maneuvers” against Filipino aircraft flying over the disputed South China Sea. In 2013, the Philippines sought to resolve the crisis by taking China to the arbitral tribunal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China has, however, denied the ruling in the legal case over strategic reefs.
US Reaction to the South China Sea Disputes
The United States and its allies have condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea. To protect its political, security, and economic interests in the region, Washington’s defense treaty with Manila could potentially draw the United States into a conflict between China and the Philippines over the disputed territory. As of September 2024,American and Filipino security officials have agreed to permanently station a US mid-range missile system in the northern Philippines, indefinitely to boost deterrence which was a part of combat exercises in April with Philippine troops. China has protested the missile positioning, claiming it undermines regional peace and stability and does not serve the interests of neighboring countries.
The escalating tensions, particularly between China and the Philippines, demonstrate the fragility of regional peace despite diplomatic efforts and provisional agreements. The conflict has evolved beyond maritime disputes to include aerial confrontations, with US involvement adding another layer of complexity and raising the stakes of potential miscalculation. As China continues to assert its claims and other nations resist these advances, the risk of unintended escalation remains high. This situation highlights the limitations of maritime diplomacy when faced with determined territorial ambitions. Without a significant shift in approach from all parties, the South China Sea is likely to remain a flashpoint for regional tensions, with the potential consequences for global trade, security alliances, and the international order in the years to come.
Abhinav Dhakal is Research Intern at NIICE.
