19 September 2024, NIICE Commentary 9589
Dr. Gulbin Sultana
Sri Lanka is all geared up for one of the most crucial Presidential election on 21 September 2024. This will be the first election after the 2022 people’s uprising known as Aragalaya. The demonstrators had called for effective changes in the existing system which is infested with corruption and cronyism. In the current election, 39 candidates have filed their nominations (one candidate died) with the promise to bring the desired changes in the country. Some of the prominent names in the list of presidential aspirants include Ranil Wickremesinghe, the incumbent President of Sri Lanka; Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB); Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and founder of the alliance called National People’s Power (NPP); Namal Rajapaksa (son of former President and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa from Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). While all the candidates have tried to accommodate people’s demands and aspirations in their manifestos, particularly on economic and governance issues, and have gone ahead with their campaigns, on the ground at the moment, it appears that there are two front runners— Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake— which indicates that they might have been able to convince the people that desired change is possible under their leadership.
While people during Aragalaya lost faith in the ruling establishment and politicians in general, the main angst was against the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brothers who were then at the helm of state affairs. People wanted an alternative political leadership to lead them through the crisis. Finally, Ranil Wickremesinghe (through constitutional means) with the support of the ruling party— SLPP— became the President of Sri Lanka and managed the 2022 crisis. While the economy of the country has improved compared to 2022 under President Ranil, the common people of Sri Lanka are still facing economic hardship. Colombo-centric elites and businessmen are supportive of Ranil’s policies and believe that the current economic hardship is temporary and necessary for economic recovery. Therefore, Ranil should be elected and given more time to bring about real change. However, this view is not supported by the majority of the Sri Lankan population who are sceptical about his ability to bring about any real change after winning the election. They think that the policies introduced by Ranil may have been effective at the moment, but they are not sustainable in the long run. People are disappointed about Ranil’s inaction on the issue of corruption. Even though Ranil is contesting as an independent candidate, he is supported by the majority of the SLPP parliamentarians and is also considered close to the Rajapaksa family. Therefore, it is largely believed that instead of change there will be a status quo if the incumbent President comes back to power.
As the chances of Ranil winning the election are getting bleak on the eve of the election, it appears that there is a shift in the Colombo-centric (elites, civil society, a section of academia) view towards Sajith Premadasa. It is believed that Sajith has the experience and willingness to accommodate people’s aspirations. There is a counter-view nonetheless, mainly subscribed by the youth, daily wage earners and middle class and also a section of academia in the country who believe that despite being people’s leader, Sajith’s hands will be tight to bring any real change in the country as many of his supporters are part of the existing corrupt system.
In the emerging circumstances, contrary to the expectations of many in the country, there seems to be a huge uptick in the electoral fortunes of the NPP candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake whose manifesto is based on economic populism. It is believed that since the NPP was never in power and people associated with the coalition are not part of the existing system, they may take a fresh approach to the issues plaguing the country at the moment and bring about the required reform in the system. Therefore, Anura seems to have gathered unprecedented electoral momentum closer to the date of the election. This is not to deny, however, that many people are still apprehensive about his leadership because of his lack of experience in the governance of the country. Colombo-centric business-elite and civil society are also apprehensive about his party’s Marxist-Leninist orientation and doubt the efficacy of Anura’s approach to deal with the economic challenges in the country. Even though the election manifesto of Anura is not based on pure Marxist-Leninist ideology and reflects a pragmatic approach to the most pressing issues in the country, many are of the view that post-election, he might revert to his leftist ideology. While there is an emerging popular view that Anura could be more suited to bring about real change, there are concerns about a sudden change and deviation from the current measures of economic recovery, which may not be good for the country. For people expressing such concerns, Sajith Premadasa comes across as the safest option over Ranil and Anura.
The prominent political parties from the minority communities— Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC), and the prominent Tamil party in the North and East- Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK)— have extended their support to Sajith. The question, however, is whether these political parties will be able to convince all the people in their respective communities to vote along the parties’ decisions. There are differences in opinion among the parties in the Tamil areas. While senior leaders in the ITAK extended their support to Sajith, nationalist Tamil parties and Tamil civil society have fielded a Tamil leader— P. Ariyanethiran— and are urging the Tamils to vote for him. Another Tamil party – Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) – on the other hand, has urged the Tamils to boycott the election.
Moreover, the leaders of the Indian Origin Tamil parties are not united. Jeevan Thondaman of the Ceylon Worker’s Congress (CWC) backs Ranil Wickremesinghe, and the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) led by Mano Ganeshan supports Sajith Premadasa.
Both Sajith and Anura had contested the Presidential Election in 2019. Sajith and Anura had secured 41.99 percent and 3.16 percent of the votes respectively. However, the political and economic scenarios in the country post-2022 Aragalaya have changed drastically and Anura’s position seems to have improved significantly during the 2024 Presidential election campaign. Apparently, the NPP has the support of the masses and the youth as they see Anura as an alternative to the traditional political elite.
The supporters of both Sajith and Anura are confident of their candidate winning the election. However, there is a possibility that none of the candidates may secure the required 50% (+) votes, as the electorate in Sri Lanka is more fragmented than ever before on the eve of 2024 election. Therefore, there is a fair possibility of a second round of counting where the second and third preferences of the voters will be taken into account. The speculation, however, is that there will not be much difference between the outcomes in the first and second rounds of counting (if it happens) and the person leading the first count is most likely to win. For all practical purposes, it seems to be a Sajith-versus-Anura-show in the election.
Dr. Gulbin Sultana is an Associate Fellow with the South Asia Centre at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies andAnalyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position of the MP-IDSA.
