23 July 2024, NIICE Commentary 9373
Juhi Sharma
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single largest party based on seat share in the 2024 parliamentary elections in India. However, unlike the 2014 and 2019 elections, the party did not win a clear majority in the Indian parliament. While the BJP-led NDA did win a third victory securing the largest number of seats by itself, the BJP won its lowest vote share since 2014 when it had won 282 seats compared to 240 seats secured in this year’s elections. The election result was particularly theatrical because it contradicted the BJP’s primary campaign slogan for the 2024 parliamentary election: ‘Abki baar, 400 paar’ ( coming election, crossing 400 seats). The party had won landslide victories in the last two general elections- 282 seats in 2014 and 303 seats in 2019, and hoped to build upon their earlier victories further in the 2024 election. However, this time the BJP has had to lean on the support of its allies to secure a majority in the Indian parliament.
The decade since 2014 when BJP’s Modi first came to power has been politically charged with populist politics, precisely a ‘Modi wave’, and an expanding wave of Hindu nationalism. Narendra Modi has secured a third term as the Prime Minister of India, the first after Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister to secure a consecutive third term. Nonetheless, the 2024 elections saw what many call a dip in Modi magic as the opposition alliance climbed up in India’s political battleground to secure 234 seats, an addition of 107 seats since the 2019 election. The dramatic emergence of close competition between the BJP and the opposition INDIA alliance exposes a number of factorial realities in the Indian political landscape.
In a dramatic shift of political fortunes, the BJP lost 29 seats it won in the 2019 election to the INDIA alliance in Uttar Pradesh- the most important state in Indian politics with the largest number of seats in the country (80), and home to the BJP’s new Hindu Nationalist symbol – the Ram temple inaugurated in 2024 in Ayodhya on the site of the infamous Babri Masjid Demolition. The BJP on its own had won 62 seats in 2019 in the state of Uttar Pradesh, which was reduced to just 33 seats in 2024. The most cinematic event of the election was the BJPs defeat in the Faizabad seat in Uttar Pradesh where the Ram Temple is located. In the prelude to the 2024 elections, the BJP inaugurated the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and fulfilled the original promise on which the BJP rose the political ranks. The general expectation was that the Ram Temple inauguration would consolidate the Hindu vote bank for the BJP. However, the election results are an alarming message that the BJP’s Hindutva politics do not translate into an elaborately efficient political card anymore.
A deciding factor of the 2024 election results was also the INDIA alliance’s pitch for a nationwide caste census. The ‘Other Backward Caste’ (OBC) population forms the largest voter bloc in India. Over the past years, several communities have stepped up to demand the status of OBC. It is because OBCs as historically disadvantaged communities benefit from reservation policies in India. The INDIA alliance appealed to these communities by promising a caste census. Moreover, the INDIA alliance tactfully appointed a chairperson of Dalit descent to appeal to the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. The caste-based identity politics changed the political landscape greatly. The BJP on the other hand stood against the divisive caste politics and focused on its Hindu nationalism. Both sides used the tool of identity politics- one of caste identity and the other of religious identity- a monolithic Hindu vote bank. The OBCs, and to a certain extent the Dalits in India majorly accounted for the INDIA alliance’s gains. The election results are an indication that Indians do not entirely value their religious identity over other sub-identities.
The opposition promised a range of welfare policies focusing on women, youth, the poor, labourers and the unemployed in its election campaign and manifesto above what the BJP had promised in this year’s elections. In the interim budget before the 2019 election, the BJP had introduced a number of fresh welfare schemes. Contrastingly, in the interim budget before the 2024 election, the BJP did not introduce fresh welfare schemes and only increased fund allocations to existing welfare programs. Although the BJP did campaign on welfare politics with guarantees for ten social groups which included the specific groups targeted by the opposition, it banked more on Hindutva and strongman politics more than welfare politics in the 2024 elections. BJP’s election manifesto focused on welfare politics with the guiding mantra of ‘Antyodaya’ or a promise to serve the last person in the queue. However, the BJP’s welfare promises during its election campaign came with the dominant rhetoric of ‘Modi ki guarantee’.
Populist politics have often overshadowed the BJP’s welfare politics. The BJP’s rise since 2014 found its ground in a unique mix of right-wing cultural majoritarianism along with pro-poor left-wing populism. Welfarism has been used by the BJP as an instrument of populist politics. Modi’s pictures in ration shops and billboards displaying welfare schemes, and the rebranding of several welfare schemes with the words ‘Prime Minister’ have been instrumental in BJP’s political messaging such as the ‘Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana’ or the ‘Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Package’. While schemes providing tangible goods such as cooking gas, toilets, and cash, which bear the words ‘prime minister’ received more fund allocations, service schemes encompassing public goods such as primary education, healthcare, work, childcare, or nutrition have been stagnated or marginally defunded.
Economist Arvind Subramanian describes this as Mr Modi’s “New Welfarism”. Although the Indian economy has performed well in terms of GDP under Modi, it is accompanied by a parallel reality of rising inequality. The election results reveal that in a country where the poor vote more than the rich, focusing on the poor at par with other political agendas such as Hindu nationalism or populist politics is of paramount importance in electoral success. Importantly, economic aspirations are valued more than religious aspirations by the voters in India. Class and caste largely run parallel to one another in India. The opposition’s caste agenda yet again indirectly addresses economic concerns. The election results send a clear message that the BJP strategically needs to achieve a fine balance between right-wing populist politics and welfare politics.
This year’s election result is a reflection of the fact that there is a gradual erosion of the political trajectory of populist politics in India. Under Modi’s ten years of rule, politics in India had largely transformed into a personality-based exercise rather than an issue-based practice. This was largely because in the 2014 and 2019 general elections, the opposition failed to develop a concrete agenda apart from anti-Modi politics. There was a lack of a formidable alternative to the BJP. This time the opposition reinvented itself, particularly in the ambit of welfare politics. In the 2024 election, the opposition alliance gained seats based on its issue-based agenda addressing unemployment, farmers issues, the poor, and women. The BJP’s election manifesto that promised developmental goals for the very same groups was titled ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra was emblazoned on the Congress party’s election manifesto, which was named ‘Nyay Patra’ (Justice letter). The right-bearing issue of ‘Nyay’ (social justice) connected more with a significant lot of an economically distressed voter base as opposed to the BJP’s ‘welfare populism’ associated with Modi. This helped the opposition to be able to pull away a large number of voters from the stranglehold of Modi magic and Hindutva.
The BJP carried out the Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra (VBSY) as part of its election campaign promising a developed India by 2047 and also propagated fewer short-term welfare goals under the larger rhetoric of ‘Vikshit Bharat’ (Developed India) by 2047. On the other hand, the opposition Indian National Congress ran a nationwide rally – Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra focusing exclusively on issues of socio-economic justice that held immediate relevance to a dissatisfied voting base. While Modi’s party promised a futuristic developmental goal of ‘Vikshit Bharat’ (Developed India) by 2047, the opposition’s issue-based agenda exclusively promising immediate tangible outcomes resonated more with a significant lot of voters.
Juhi Sharma is a researcher at the Centre for Legislative Research and Advocacy, New Delhi.
